Custoza, 1866 : a different Italy

I am interested would Prussians/Germans be willing to absorb Croatia should Croats petition them on the basis of Croatia entering Hapsburg lands on their own accord?
 
Well, ITTL the obvious choice for him is a dynastic marriage with the house of Hohenzollern to cement the alliance. Due to the religious issue, it would in all likelihood be the Catholic branch of Hohenzollern-Sigmaringen. This gal seems especially suitable.

She looks quite presentable, and certainly fertile :)
It would be good to bring some fresh air into the musty halls of the Savoia palace.
 
I am interested would Prussians/Germans be willing to absorb Croatia should Croats petition them on the basis of Croatia entering Hapsburg lands on their own accord?

Given Bismarck attitude I'd say no way: catholics and non-German are two big no-nos. Getting entangled in the Balkans is the third one. Not to mention that the Hungarians would throw a fit, and strategically Hungary is more important.

It might be more feasible to have a separate Croat state (possibly with some German prince as king) if the Hungarians bungle their establishment of a Great Hungary (they appear to have too many minorities within their border).
 
Actually, Persano wasn't popular at all with the King, who held a grudge against him because he was convinced that Persano had willingly grounded the royal yacht on the coast of Sardegna.
They kept him simply because there wasn't anyone else; his subordinates were junior and were no better than him, his captains, while personally brave, were not prepared to make the jump between sail warships and steam warships, and performed understandably poorly (the captain of the Re d'Italia, Captain Fàa di Bruno, was glorified as having killed himself when the ship was sinking, but it appears that in fact he jumped for it but couldn't swim far enough and was dragged down with it).

I did not know about the incident with the royal yacht, but it does not change the picture. Persano was kept in his place - notwithstanding his attempts to resign - because he was a Piedmontese count, and as such part of the establishment. However his correspondence during the crucial period of 1866 is an unmitigated collection of whinings, accusations and complaints.
Tegetthoff was sent to Istria at the beginning of the war, and the situation of the Austrian fleet (which had been neglected after the departure of Maximillian for Mexico, was quite poor. However, rather than complaining like Persano did, he applied himself to training as much as possible the fleet.
Persano did not apply to training - which was what the Italians were missing: there ships were much more modern and with better guns than the Austrian ones. All over the course of the war, Persano never appeared to have a strategy in mind, nor did he show any appetite for pro-active actions, which is a cardinal sin in an admiral. When the government forced him into action after Custoza, he went for Lissa but without any strong feeling about it. It looks like that he picked up at face value the suggestion which the Minister of Navy, Depretis, sent him in a scathing letter: "...we have done nothing better than to put together a squadron that dares not meet the Austrians? .... If Tegetthoff dares not meeting us, we will effect a landing somewhere on the coast: at Lissa for instance. Lissa, by its central position, would ensure us the sovereignity of the Adriatic; let us take Lissa." It does not appear a positive order to attack Lissa, but rather the order to do something. The admiral of the Italian fleet who could not make a plan on his own took it at face value, and bungled its execution (the telegraph cable was not cut and the island was invested in different places, rather than concentrating all efforts against Porto San Giorgio). The result was that when he got news of Tegetthoff imminent arrival he was still engaged in reducing the Austrian forts and had to reimbark the troops and prepare for action. Not that he had a lot of ideas here too: he ordered the fleet on line, but left too wide a gap between the first squadron and the rest of the fleet, then he changed ships without signalling his division commanders, with the result that everyone was looking at the Re d'italia for admiral orders, while the admiral itself was esconced on the Affondatore. The battle was confused, and there were a number of opportunities to gain the upper hand, but it did not came to pass. Persano was tried in the Italian senate after the war: he was found not guilty of cowardice but convicted of negligence, and the verdict is probably a correct one. Still Persano wasted a magnificent opportunity (a positive outcome at Lissa would have left all the Adriatic under Italian control) and Tegetthoff took a crazy risk and won. Whatever the previous record of his divisional commanders was, I doubt that either Albini or Vacca could have performed worse than he did: an English historian compared him to John Byng, the English admiral shot after a court martial over the loss of Minorca "pour encourager les autres". Maybe a similar outcome for Persano would have done wonders to encourage the others.

As for the Italianization, I say that it's going to be just a little bit less harsh than in OTL; no vandalization of the Narodni Dom, no fascist beating the hell out of Slavs. But it's not likely that they are going to take it easy; in the renewed nationalistic sentiment, they are going to be tough on Germans and Slavs. Perhaps they'll let them have elementary school in 'other languages', but secondary and university are going to be compulsory Italian. Of course, no statue for Walther Von Der Vogelweide in Bolzano, but plenty of statues of Dante, Columbus, Francesco Morosini and Enrico Dandolo and others like them.

Once again: it is 1866, smack in the age of nationalism. One cannot look at events of that time from the perch of a 21st century political correctness.
I would be surprised if a successful Italy would not make much of the heritage of the Serenissima, and erect statues to Morosini and Dandolo. I'll give one up on you: the titles of duke of Venice and duke of Dalmatia might be added to the royal titles, and the Sposalizio del Mare would be resurrected.
 
Given Bismarck attitude I'd say no way: catholics and non-German are two big no-nos. Getting entangled in the Balkans is the third one. Not to mention that the Hungarians would throw a fit, and strategically Hungary is more important.

It might be more feasible to have a separate Croat state (possibly with some German prince as king) if the Hungarians bungle their establishment of a Great Hungary (they appear to have too many minorities within their border).

Following on that idea how possible would be this?

Italy getting Dalmatia is a given. Hungary gets Slavonia. Croatia is set up as a kingdom in union with the German Empire ruled by prince(now to become king) Fridrich Karl or Friedrich Heinrich Albrecht and is awarded Istra including Trieste/Trst as well as areas of Styria and Carniola predominantly inhabited by Slavs. In a way it is a win-win(sort of) situation for 4 out of 5 parties involved. Italy gets Dalmatia which allows her to become the Adriatic hegemon, Hungary no longer has direct access to the Adriatic but gets independence as well as Slavonia under direct control and gets rid of the most disruptive element withing the kingdom, the Croatian Sabor and clergy. Croatia get its long wished independence. Slovenians at least become part of a state where the dominant ethnic group basically speaks the same language as them.

Considering how 90-95% of Štokavian speaking Croats would be left outside the borders of this new Croatia the Standard Croatian would revert to its original Kajkavian form which is almost completely intelligible with the various Slovenian dialects, especially in 19th century before Štokavian Standard Langauage and immigrants had time to influence the Kajkavian and cause greater differences to emerge. That would allow easier cultural integration between the Croat and Slovenian populations (though I would not say assimilation but rather a merger).

The ethnic discourse in Croatia would probably be more inclined to take the Germanic approach, especially if the research would be funded by the royal family. In the 2nd half of the 19th century the ethnogenesis of Croatians was a greaty and heatly debated matter, much more than it is today. Out of 10 leading scientists 3 supported the Slavic theory, 3 supported the Illyrian theory, 2 supported the Gothic theory, 1 supported the outer Iranian theory and 1 supported the inner Iranian theory. This is also the time period when the two earliest local writen records about Croatia become known to the wider public and also the time before both sources suffered a relentless smear campaign by the Pan-Slavists and South-Slavists. In those sources (Historia Salonita and Chronicle of the priest of Duklja) the earliest Croats are identified as Goths. This could result in Croats beeing viewed by the international scientific comunity and by the peoplethemselves in a similar manner to the Bulgarians. Non-slavic people that have become Slavicised.

For the German Empire such a situation would also be benefitial. They would get 4 excellent port/port locations(Trieste/Triest/Trst, Pola/Polei/Pula, Fiume/Sankt Veit am Pflaum/Rijeka, Segna/Zengg/Senj) for their Mediterain Fleet that would not depend on their continual good relations with Italy and would have a certain leverage over both Italy and Hungary should they try to drift away from German influence or go against
German interests through a significant Croat and Croat+German population in both.
 

Eurofed

Banned
The idea that Italy is not getting Trieste and Istria ITTL is simply ASBish. Marko, you really, really need to understand that ITTL Italy is a great power and the closest ally of Germany in Europe, while Croatia is not even getting close to be in the same league of big boys.

Hence, no matter which zany scheme you try to concoct, you are not getting to see Italian irredentist claims on Dalmatia or much worse the Austrian Littoral sacrificed to fulfill Slav ones. Regardless of whether the union of Germany and Croatia somehow gets set up, Croatia makes an Ausgleich with Hungary, or goes independent, Fiume (which Italy may give up to Germany or Hungary, but not to puny Croatia, without too many problems if it's getting Istria and Dalmatia) and Senj are going to be its main ports. Trieste and Pola ? No way.

However, I agree with Lord Kalvan that most likely, Bismarck would not be interested in such a union, and differently from Grossdeutchsland, the German public opinion is not strongarming him into compliance. In all likelihood, Germany, Italy, and Hungary agree that the Hungarian-Croatian union is the solution that best fulfills all of their interests.
 
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I understand that the scenario I presented above is not very likely. What I do not understand is why Germany would pamper the Italians so much. I can understand that Italy will be getting Dalmatia since Germany wants Italy on its good side, I can even uderstand Italy getting Trieste but I can't see Germany giving Italy all of the Istrian peninsula since the interior have been part of one germanic state or another for a thousand years. Italy may be on the wining side and see itself as equal of the "big boys" in Europe; Germany, France and UK but it will still be Germany that will be calling the shots and I can't see Germans abandoning a strategic position of Pula even to Italy especialy if the have plans with Rijeka.


From a my point of view this would be the most reasonable outcome of new borders drawn, with western Istra open to debate based how generous the Germans would feel towards Italy:

 

Eurofed

Banned
I understand that the scenario I presented above is not very likely. What I do not understand is why Germany would pamper the Italians so much. I can understand that Italy will be getting Dalmatia since Germany wants Italy on its good side, I can even uderstand Italy getting Trieste but I can't see Germany giving Italy all of the Istrian peninsula since the interior have been part of one germanic state or another for a thousand years. Italy may be on the wining side and see itself as equal of the "big boys" in Europe; Germany, France and UK but it will still be Germany that will be calling the shots and I can't see Germans abandoning a strategic position of Pula even to Italy especialy if the have plans with Rijeka.

Because a solid alliance with a strong Italy is very beneficial to German strategic (and economic) interests and Italy wants its irredentist claims in Istria and Dalmatia fulfilled to make the alliance solid, while a Med port of its own is nowhere so beneficial to Germany in comparison, and if they really want one, the simplest solution is to annex Fiume, link it to German Slovenia, and still satisfy Italian claims. At the very most, one port in the Med is everything Germany may need, its main strategic focus is always going to be elsewhere. And a solid military alliance and economic union with Italy gives Germany access to all Italian ports for economic and strategic purposes, what is a puny single Adriatic port in comparison ?

Germany is not going to be interested in getting too many Slavs onboard for the sake of it, they are going to make an obvious exception for Bohemia-Moravia (because it's very valuable and they see it as a German land with deficient Germanization) and for Slovenia (because there are historical ties, no other power is claiming it, and an independent Slovenia does not fulfill German interests). To annex Slovenia does not piss off a valuable ally, to annex Trieste or Pola most certainly does so. And there were few Germans in the Austrian Littoral.

In 1848-49, what you propose would have been quite feasible. In 1866-75, not really so.
 
The idea that Italy is not getting Trieste and Istria ITTL is simply ASBish. Marko, you really, really need to understand that ITTL Italy is a great power and the closest ally of Germany in Europe, while Croatia is not even getting close to be in the same league of big boys.

Hence, no matter which zany scheme you try to concoct, you are not getting to see Italian irredentist claims on Dalmatia or much worse the Austrian Littoral sacrificed to fulfill Slav ones. Regardless of whether the union of Germany and Croatia somehow gets set up, Croatia makes an Ausgleich with Hungary, or goes independent, Fiume (which Italy may give up to Germany or Hungary, but not to puny Croatia, without too many problems if it's getting Istria and Dalmatia) and Senj are going to be its main ports. Trieste and Pola ? No way.

However, I agree with Lord Kalvan that most likely, Bismarck would not be interested in such a union, and differently from Grossdeutchsland, the German public opinion is not strongarming him into compliance. In all likelihood, Germany, Italy, and Hungary agree that the Hungarian-Croatian union is the solution that best fulfills all of their interests.

Hear, hear. After reading the curious tale about the ur-Goths, I've become totally convinced that Hungarians shall go through a lot of interesting times ITTL :)

On a more serious matter, there is the matter of Carinthia and Carniola to adjudicate (I would assume that there is no issue for Trieste, Istria and Fiume, which are annexed by Italy). None of these lands were under the crown of St. Stephan, btw, except Fiume.
My suggestion would be to create a semi-independent principality (Grand-duchy of Carinthia and Carniola), within the sphere of interest of Italy, and ruled by an Italian prince to be chosen.
Alternatively, I suppose that Carinthia might be joined to Austria (at the same conditions under which Austria is annexed to the German empire, while Carniola would be annexed to Italy as an autonomous region (or in personal union with the kingdom of Italy, but still with recognised authonomies and self-government on local issues).
 
For the German Empire such a situation would also be benefitial. They would get 4 excellent port/port locations(Trieste/Triest/Trst, Pola/Polei/Pula, Fiume/Sankt Veit am Pflaum/Rijeka, Segna/Zengg/Senj) for their Mediterain Fleet that would not depend on their continual good relations with Italy and would have a certain leverage over both Italy and Hungary should they try to drift away from German influence or go against
German interests through a significant Croat and Croat+German population in both.

The problem I see here is that having these ports will reduce the probability of good relations with Italy. Mediterranean ports are an interesting concept, but fact is that an additional Med fleet will be costly and largely useless if the other neighbours of the Adriatic are hostile to Germany.

Furthermore, the question is how the partitioning of Austria happens. I'm leaning toward AH falling appart, as most do. However, I don't think that this would happen within the war or even before the peace treaty is enacted. Therefore, Italy will already have gains that are larger than OTL and I would expect Triest to be among them - or directly behind the Italian peace border. Now if AH collapses, Italy will try to expand. If Triest, the whole of Istria and the german parts of South Tyrol are out of question, how will you please Italy?

I think in a later partitioning of AH Germany will take all German-speaking parts plus southern Styria and southern Carinthia. What is Küstenland would go to Italy, as well as Dalmatia. That leaves the possibility of germany getting Fiume as a port, plus maybe Krk and Cres for secure access.
 
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