Current demographics of Germany in the event of a late Central Powers WWI victory?

CaliGuy

Banned
What would the current demographics of Germany have been in the event of a late Central Powers World War I victory (such as with no USW resumption, continued U.S. neutrality and Britain defaulting on its debts, thus hurting the Entente war effort in WWI)?

Specifically, what would Germany's total population be, what would the ethnic composition of Germany's population be, how many immigrants would live in Germany, et cetera.

Any thoughts on this?

Also, for reference, here is some very recent demographic data for Germany from our TL to use as a framework for this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Germany#Migrant_background
 

CaliGuy

Banned
What would the current demographics of Germany have been in the event of a late Central Powers World War I victory (such as with no USW resumption, continued U.S. neutrality and Britain defaulting on its debts, thus hurting the Entente war effort in WWI)?

Specifically, what would Germany's total population be, what would the ethnic composition of Germany's population be, how many immigrants would live in Germany, et cetera.

Any thoughts on this?

Also, for reference, here is some very recent demographic data for Germany from our TL to use as a framework for this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Germany#Migrant_background
To elaborate on this, a relevant question here is this--how much larger would immigration to Germany over the last 100 years have been in this TL in comparison to our TL?
 
As you go for a late CP victory, the demographic effects of WW1 will be very similar. Losses due to the blockade might be a bit ameliorated in the end, while the number of casualties on the battlefield might actually be even higher than in OTL.
A surviving Kaiserreich in the borders of 1914 or even (perhaps just slightly) expanded will still have more prominent Polish-, French- and Danish-speaking minorities than in the Versailles-borders.
Apart from that, I don't see a radically different demographic development throughout the 20s and 30s.

Everything else will depend on if and how another great war occurs and what its effect are. Basically, you can go do as you please there. If you say that in your timeline Germany has been living in peace for 99 years now, I guesstimate a German population in 1914 borders of 110-140 million as realistic. Concerning immigration, a lot depends on the economic situation and the relationship towards Eastern Europe. If there is no Communist sphere hindering migration, migration into Germany (which, depending on the need of the German economy for workers, might set in stronger and earlier than in OTL) would come (very generally speaking) more coming from the East than from the South. Note: this includes Jewish immigration.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
As you go for a late CP victory, the demographic effects of WW1 will be very similar. Losses due to the blockade might be a bit ameliorated in the end, while the number of casualties on the battlefield might actually be even higher than in OTL.
A surviving Kaiserreich in the borders of 1914 or even (perhaps just slightly) expanded will still have more prominent Polish-, French- and Danish-speaking minorities than in the Versailles-borders.

Agreed with all of this.

Apart from that, I don't see a radically different demographic development throughout the 20s and 30s.

Couldn't Germany experience a baby boom in the 1920s if it had previously won WWI, though?

Everything else will depend on if and how another great war occurs and what its effect are. Basically, you can go do as you please there.

Another Great War is probably unlikely. Even if France manages to keep Briey-Longwy, it would be too weak and exhausted to go to war with Germany again. As for Russia, it will be crippled by the loss of Baku and a large part of its empire and thus probably wouldn't be in a position to challenge Germany for a while--indeed, possibly until after Germany already develops nuclear weapons, at which point it will be too late for Russia to challenge Germany. As for Britain and the U.S., they are unlikely to have a desire to fight Germany again--especially without allies.

If you say that in your timeline Germany has been living in peace for 99 years now, I guesstimate a German population in 1914 borders of 110-140 million as realistic. Concerning immigration, a lot depends on the economic situation and the relationship towards Eastern Europe. If there is no Communist sphere hindering migration, migration into Germany (which, depending on the need of the German economy for workers, might set in stronger and earlier than in OTL) would come (very generally speaking) more coming from the East than from the South. Note: this includes Jewish immigration.

Agreed with this; however, how much more immigration do you think that Germany will see in this TL?

Also, due to its more robust position in Europe in this TL, could Germany also see more Third World immigrants in comparison to our TL?
 
Without the Nazis, Germany will be much more assertive when comes to pressuring immigrants to integrate and eventually assimilate. Adding to that, integrating Catholics and Orthodox Christians from Eastern Europe will be significantly easier. So there might very well be quite some immigration to Germany, but by the 3rd generation at most, they'll probably consider themselves German.
Third World immigrants, quite frankly I don't see why Germany would take in any much at all. Just look at OTL Japan and South Korea aka Democracies without white guilt. Guest workers from Turkey/Surviving Ottoman Empire, being probably the exception due to the Alliance in the Great War. But these will be expected to be actual Guests. Having to go back once their contracts are over and not being allowed to bring their families with them during their contracts, since they are not supposed to put down roots in the first place. Akin to guest workers in OTL South Korea.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Without the Nazis, Germany will be much more assertive when comes to pressuring immigrants to integrate and eventually assimilate. Adding to that, integrating Catholics and Orthodox Christians from Eastern Europe will be significantly easier. So there might very well be quite some immigration to Germany, but by the 3rd generation at most, they'll probably consider themselves German.

That's actually an interesting point; after all, no Nazism means that German nationalism doesn't massively lose its popularity like it did in our TL. In turn, this means more pressure to assimilate for immigrants to Germany (even if they insist on keeping their own religion).

Third World immigrants, quite frankly I don't see why Germany would take in any much at all. Just look at OTL Japan and South Korea aka Democracies without white guilt. Guest workers from Turkey/Surviving Ottoman Empire, being probably the exception due to the Alliance in the Great War. But these will be expected to be actual Guests. Having to go back once their contracts are over and not being allowed to bring their families with them during their contracts, since they are not supposed to put down roots in the first place. Akin to guest workers in OTL South Korea.

Your point about Japan and South Korea is certainly interesting. However, would these countries be able to successfully manage without immigrants over the long(er)-run if they don't get their total fertility rate significantly up?
 
Third World immigrants, quite frankly I don't see why Germany would take in any much at all. Just look at OTL Japan and South Korea aka Democracies without white guilt. Guest workers from Turkey/Surviving Ottoman Empire, being probably the exception due to the Alliance in the Great War. But these will be expected to be actual Guests. Having to go back once their contracts are over and not being allowed to bring their families with them during their contracts, since they are not supposed to put down roots in the first place. Akin to guest workers in OTL South Korea.

Blaming "white guilt" for the relatively generous immigration policies of Western Europe and the United States is silly and racist. More likely is the fact that these countries have falling birth rates which require the import of younger workers to maintain the future stability of their social safety nets. Japan has chosen not to do this and faces a demographic bomb in the next decade.
 
Considering "Baby Boom"- if there is one to occur, it will rather be around 1930 when the generation not decimated by the war starts to marry; and also the economical turmoil (even After a victory) will have calmed down.

This wouldn't be that different from OTL actually.

Concerning "3rd World Immigrationen"; this will for the longest Time be a question depending on wether Germany will hold on to a Colonial Empire. This again would be up to the writer.
 
Blaming "white guilt" for the relatively generous immigration policies of Western Europe and the United States is silly and racist. More likely is the fact that these countries have falling birth rates which require the import of younger workers to maintain the future stability of their social safety nets. Japan has chosen not to do this and faces a demographic bomb in the next decade.
There's a difference between accepting immigrants with a Canada-style points system that takes migrants with qualifications and language skills ,etc and taking everyone who walks across your unsecured borders without regard to job qualifications and willingness to acquire any. Taking in migrants who on average will be a drain on the welfare state even while young doesn't help maintain social safety nets, it strains them.

You are also discounting the possibility that without the trauma of WW2 all of Europe might have a more optimistic outlook and birth rates more akin to OTL USA, rather than the same as OTL Europe.

Enough bickering let me add something positive then regarding 3rd world immigration: a CP victory most likely means the Ottomans strangling the House of Saud and with it it's biggest export: Islamic Radicalisation. So let's just agree to disagree on the level of 3rd world immigration in this scenario. Either way there'll be less friction between the migrants and the natives.
 

CalBear

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Donor
Monthly Donor
Without the Nazis, Germany will be much more assertive when comes to pressuring immigrants to integrate and eventually assimilate. Adding to that, integrating Catholics and Orthodox Christians from Eastern Europe will be significantly easier. So there might very well be quite some immigration to Germany, but by the 3rd generation at most, they'll probably consider themselves German.
Third World immigrants, quite frankly I don't see why Germany would take in any much at all. Just look at OTL Japan and South Korea aka Democracies without white guilt. Guest workers from Turkey/Surviving Ottoman Empire, being probably the exception due to the Alliance in the Great War. But these will be expected to be actual Guests. Having to go back once their contracts are over and not being allowed to bring their families with them during their contracts, since they are not supposed to put down roots in the first place. Akin to guest workers in OTL South Korea.
Seriously?

The BDR took in immigrants as guest workers because they had to to keep their economy humming (remarkably similar to what the U.S. has done for decades). The main difference is that Germany makes it almost impossible for the immigrants to gain citizenship, and since Germany does not off birthright citizenship (jus soli) the country now has 3rd generation children of migrants who are not considered to be citizens.
 
What unsecured borders and migrant drains on safety nets are you talking about specifically because I can't think of any stats or policies to back up anything you are saying.

Also I assure you that in Britain during 50s, 60s and 70s when Britain was allowing in many new migrants there was definitely no "white guilt" to motivate these actions, a quick Google search will show how tolerant and guilty our society acted towards Irish, Caribbean and African migrants at the time.

Regardless a more stable Middle East without Saudis rule will definitely reduce the level of migration from that area and aid with integration for those who do.
 
Seriously? The BDR took in immigrants as guest workers because they had to to keep their economy humming (remarkably similar to what the U.S. has done for decades). The main difference is that Germany makes it almost impossible for the immigrants to gain citizenship, and since Germany does not off birthright citizenship (jus soli) the country now has 3rd generation children of migrants who are not considered to be citizens.

That should be in the past tense. From 1990 onwards (new law went into effect in the year 2000, but applied retroactivly) even when both parents are foreigners their children receive German citizenship. Until a couple of years ago they had to choose which citizenship they want to retain until their 23th birthday.
Additionally, the barriers for citizenship are hardly insurmountable
-8 years of legal residence (can be reduced)
-language/citizenship test (usually waived for people who have graduated from a school in Germany)
-ability to support onself without state support
-not having comitted serious criminal offences
-declaration of allegiance to the constitution and its values
 

CalBear

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That should be in the past tense. From 1990 onwards (new law went into effect in the year 2000, but applied retroactivly) even when both parents are foreigners their children receive German citizenship. Until a couple of years ago they had to choose which citizenship they want to retain until their 23th birthday.
Additionally, the barriers for citizenship are hardly insurmountable
-8 years of legal residence (can be reduced)
-language/citizenship test (usually waived for people who have graduated from a school in Germany)
-ability to support onself without state support
-not having comitted serious criminal offences
-declaration of allegiance to the constitution and its values
Thanks. When I did my usual inadequate research I didn't find that change.

Was this a result of Reunification?
 
Maybe someone else knows more about this issue, but I would say no or at least only indirectly. A reform of the nationality laws was considered by almost everybody long overdue (it was last changed in 1913) and in 1998 the CDU/CSU and FDP coalition lost their majority and was replaced by a SPD/Green (overall more pro-immigration) coalition.
 
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