Let's say that Tsarist Russia survives to the present day by having more competent leaders in the late 19th and early 20th century (this can be done through assassinations, accidents, and/or et cetera), as well as beyond. Thus, Tsarist Russia is on the winning side in World War I, World War II (if a World War II still occurs in this scenario), and any other major wars in this scenario. Also, Tsarist Russia can transform into a genuine constitutional monarchy in this scenario if necessary.
In this scenario, which of its pre-World War I territories would a surviving Tsarist Russia have a reasonably likely chance of eventually losing (this includes territories acquiring their independence from Tsarist Russia)?
As for my answer, I am tempted to say Poland and Finland (since these two territories already appear to have had a large sense of national self-identity even during Tsarist Russian rule). In addition, Tsarist Russia might have had a reasonably likely chance of eventually losing some territories in Central Asia or in the Caucasus. Many, though not all, of these territories were (and will liekly remain) majority-Muslim, and some of these territories also appear to be very mountainous; the Muslim-majority factor could eventually cause large independence movements to develop in some of these territories if there is an Islamic Awakening or something there, while the mountainous terrain of some of these areas appears to be beneficial for conducting insurgencies (as in Afghanistan in real life). Other than that, I am unsure if Tsarist Russia would have been reasonably likely to lose any other of its pre-World War I territories in this scenario.
Thoughts on this?