On the one hand, making a timeline where paedophilia becomes socially accepted by our time seems like a very interesting challenge. On the other hand, it feels deeply wrong, like we're stepping into territory man was never intended to go...
I'm not gonna venture further with this What If?, the implications simply both me too much...
It's not
entirely impossible to imagine that California might set the age of consent at 13 as it is in Spain, or 12 as it is in certain parts of Mexico (according to Wikipedia - and it's 14 in Germany and 15 in Polanski's native Poland). But the POD needs to be much earlier than the 1970s. And it could be - consider
this:
California's first penal code in 1850 proscribed sex with girls under the age of 10. The age of consent was raised to 14 in 1889, to 16 in 1897, and finally to 18 in 1913, where it has remained since that time.
Of course, even if sex with a 13 year-old was still legal in California in 1978, that wouldn't necessarily save Polanski from a rape charge - although I suspect a lot of girls in Hollywood over the age of 18 are plied with alcohol and drugs and pressed into non-consensual sex in similar circumstances, without ever reporting it to the police.
Back to the original POD, Polanski being prevented from running and sent to jail isn't going to change anyone's attitude to the age of consent, or to how celebrities behave. But it might affect other law and order issues, and it might affect sympathy for him.
The judge will probably use the flight attempt to justify sending him to prison in spite of the recommendations of the probation department and victim. But those recommendations will undoubtedly become public knowledge, and that will garner sympathy from many quarters - the "butterfly on a wheel" image, people condemning what is seen as overly harsh reaction without condoning the original offence. The
ex parte communications between a district attorney and the judge, which caused the judge to suddenly start considering a prison sentence despite previous recommendations and agreements, will provide grounds for an appeal of the sentence.
With good grounds for an appeal and a fair degree of public pressure, I think the prison sentence will be reduced or quashed and the deportation order over-turned. Meanwhile, while Polanski is languishing in prison and post his release, the presence of a major celebrity might focus some attention on the status of America's prisons. Maybe prison reform replaces Tibet as the
cause celebre for Hollywood. The decision of the judge to ignore recommendations and send him to jail will also focus attention on that issue - "would this grave injustice have been overturned if Mr Polanski wasn't a celebrity?" and so on.
After some jail time and assuming he escapes deportation, I'm sure Polanski's career will recover - as Victor Salva's did, although obviously Salva was (and is) much less well-known so it wasn't as big a story. Depending on how long he spends in jail, he might make another film sooner than he did in OTL (there was seven year gap between Polanski's
Tess and
Pirates, only a six year one between Salva's
Clownhouse and
Powder). And with the conviction spent, he isn't going to have to worry about which countries he visits and so on. Staying and facing his punishment would probably have been a lot better for him, perhaps even completely drawing a line under the incident - though I don't know whether it would have brought closure for his victim.