Cuban Missle Crisis Leads To Nuclear War

[Maku]

I've got a good AH cuban missile crisis book at home, Days of Decision by Brendan Dubois or something like that I think (can't remember exactly). In it Curtis LeMay launches an unauthorised air attack on soviet/cuban positions. The situation escalates and leads to a full-blown nuclear exchange with the Soviets. The US only sustains a couple of major hits but the USSR is blasted out of existance due to US missile/technological dominance. USA sinks into depression and the military retains a lot of power. America is also something of a pariah internationaly because it killed just about everyone in the USSR (US Air Force officers don't travel overseas to avoid being arrested for war crimes etc). All other nations renounce nuclear weapons. France & Germany form a new powerbloc in Europe and the British go back to a strong role in their former colonies (while also sending aid packages to the US and buying up a lot of cheap US real estate and businesses. Interesting book I would recommend to others.

 

[Karlos]

Very interesting. Never thought nuclear war in the 60's would be so one-sided. Didn't the soviets have additional strike capability, subs with missiles, secret bases? The USSR was the biggest country in the world, would none of its ICBM bases survive?

 

[DMA]

Very interesting. Never thought nuclear war in the 60's would be so one-sided. Didn't the soviets have additional strike capability, subs with missiles, secret bases? The USSR was the biggest country in the world, would none of its ICBM bases survive?

yeah, I agree. It wouldn't be one sided. The USA would suffer a lot (although not as much as the USSR). Don't forget there's around 60 IRBMs in Cuba. Now if they are fired, in a use it or lose it strategy, that's something like 60 1 megaton bombs landing in the USA. Furthermore, although the Soviet ICBM arsenal was low in 1962 (as we're talking only 36 warheads *), there's also a further 72 SLBMs*. That's a grand total of 108 missiles. Granted not all of these will have been deployed, but even if half manage to hit their targets, that's still 54. Considering the Soviets pretty well only targeted major cities & bases, due to the fact that their missiles had a +/- factor or about 3-5kms, we're nevertheless talking about the destruction of every major US city along with many military bases.


* Note: I'm using figures supplyed by the Natural Resources Defense Council

 

[Maku]

yeah, I agree. It wouldn't be one sided. The USA would suffer a lot (although not as much as the USSR). Don't forget there's around 60 IRBMs in Cuba. Now if they are fired, in a use it or lose it strategy, that's something like 60 1 megaton bombs landing in the USA. Furthermore, although the Soviet ICBM arsenal was low in 1962 (as we're talking only 36 warheads *), there's also a further 72 SLBMs*. That's a grand total of 108 missiles. Granted not all of these will have been deployed, but even if half manage to hit their targets, that's still 54. Considering the Soviets pretty well only targeted major cities & bases, due to the fact that their missiles had a +/- factor or about 3-5kms, we're nevertheless talking about the destruction of every major US city along with many military bases.

I can't really remember the exact details of the damage to the US. I'm pretty sure they lost San Diego and NY & DC coped a couple each as well. The Soviet forces in Cuba deployed nukes (on FROG missiles I think) against US Marine landings but the book doesn't really go into naval clashes or sub-launched nukes in much detail at all. The given reason the US didn't get wiped out was due to their ability (along with Canada) to shoot down the majority of Soviet bombers and a massive strike on the USSR and its land-based weapon systems.

As I said, the details were a bit sketchy, particularly since the book revolves around discovering the 'true' story of what happened on that day and not the 'official' history provided by those who survived (like LeMay).

Totally unrelated: Just noticed your location. My father used to captain the patrol boat HMAS Cessnock.

 

[Paul Spring]

I can't really remember the exact details of the damage to the US. I'm pretty sure they lost San Diego and NY & DC coped a couple each as well. The Soviet forces in Cuba deployed nukes (on FROG missiles I think) against US Marine landings but the book doesn't really go into naval clashes or sub-launched nukes in much detail at all. The given reason the US didn't get wiped out was due to their ability (along with Canada) to shoot down the majority of Soviet bombers and a massive strike on the USSR and its land-based weapon systems.

As I said, the details were a bit sketchy, particularly since the book revolves around discovering the 'true' story of what happened on that day and not the 'official' history provided by those who survived (like LeMay).

You're talking about Resurrection Day - I thought that it was a pretty good book. If I remember correctly, the US lost Washington DC, parts of the New York area (warheads hitting Queens and Brooklyn and Newark, New Jersey, but not Manhattan, which survives in damaged form and becomes a sort of refuge for thousands of people), San Diego, Miami, Key West, Omaha, Nebraska (headquarters of Strategic Air command at the time, I think), plus a few air bases in the Midwest and Great Plains areas. The total US death toll is given as around 10 million, probably more if you count people who died in the period afterward when much transportation and communication broke down and people starved or froze to death or were killed in fighting. The Soviet Union was almost completely destroyed, and the People's Republic of China suffered huge losses and collapsed into feuding regions.

In the book, the US doesn't lose more because a lot of the Soviet missiles in Cuba are smashed by conventional bombing before they can be launched. Once the Soviet commander in Cuba launched his longer range missiles at the US, the US launched everything it had, bombers plus ballistic missiles on land and in subs. This presumably destroyed a considerable part of the Soviet arsenal before it could be launched - I think that it says that the Soviet commander in Cuba probably launched on his own initiative, so the Soviets didn't know about this or the full US response until radar picked it up, by which time it was too late to do much of anything before the US ballistic missiles hit. The Soviets were able to launch large numbers of bombers, but almost all of them were intercepted and destroyed over Canada by US and Canadian airforces. One group of 4 Soviet bombers followed a different route over the North Atlantic and approached New York from the east while almost all the US planes were intercepting over Canada. An air National Guard squadron was the only unit to intercept them, and they shot down a couple, but the others were able to drop their bombs on the New York area.

My guess would be that Miami, Key West, Omaha, and most of the airforce bases were hit by the first Soviet strike from Cuba. San Diego was hit by a missile from a Soviet sub. I'm not sure about Washington - it's not clear from the book whether it was hit by one or more warheads, so it could have been from Cuba, from a sub, or a lone ICBM that the Soviets succeeded in launching before they were hit.

 

[Mr_ Bondoc]

Something To Consider...

-First, In OTL, during the Cuban Missile Crisis, another military crisis was taking place. Apparently the government of the People's Republic of China and India were fighting a small border conflict. In an ATL wherein the U.S. and USSR go to war over the Cuban Missile Crisis, circumstances dictate that the Indian and Chinese forces would have launched a conventional war against each other. with troops in Assam, Kashmir, and along the Tibetan frontier....

-Second, in the ATL, circumstances dictate that the civil rights movement would have been stalled for at least 10 years while survival becomes a national priority. This insures that the Jim Crow laws of the South continue into the 1970s. To make things interesting, you can easily add the moreradical elements of the Black Panther Party movement and the Nation of Islam into the national debate on civil rights....

-Third, you can certainly have some interesting twists in the pop culture. For instance, believe it or not, Jimi Hendrix, was a member of the 101st Airborne Division during the outset of the Cuban Missile Crisis. If anything he would have been stationed at one of the major battlefronts of the Third World War....

-Fourth, with the outset of war, one of the first battlefields will be the city of Berlin. American forces in West Berlin would be trapped in East Germany and would be fighting a battle to maintain their capability until the arrival of reinforcements land at Templehoff Airport. This would certainly be a pitched battle against Soviet forces....

 

[Bulgaroktonos]

Europe would be ashes. Or at least most of Germany, the Low Countries, and France. At minimum, with everything in range of US and Russian weaponry would have been hit repeatedly with nuclear weapons. They wouldn't be as bad off as Europe, but their hair would definately be mussed.

If war broke out over Cuba, Khruschev would be forced to respond with serious measures or face a coup from the hardliners. This would be met by the JFK administration with a hardline.

We wouldn't sell out Berlin, as if we recall the agreement over Turkey, the US was very unwilling to publicly announce the withdrawal of the missiles as it would appear that we sold out the Turks for our own safety.

Likewise with Berlin. Khruschev would likely seize Berlin. If we sold out Berlin, the mindset of the US would reckon that this would discourage our allies from actively trusting our word of protection. Thus, Kennedy would be forced to fight for Berlin.

This would likely lead to Soviet strikes on NATO forces in the rest of Germany in an effort to prevent them from relieving Berlin. Given the disparity of forces, NATO would likely respond with tactical nuclear weapons, followed by Russian retaliation, at which point the situation would become so desperate for NATO that strategic nuclear weaponry would be employed.

Basically, both sides would intend to escalate it to a point below nuclear war, but given the strategic planning and mindsets of both sides would lead to an ever increasing scale of fighting.

The US might want to keep the fighting to Berlin. But Russia does not know this, and we will not tell them, so Russia, as paranoid a land as ever existed, will likely believe that we will try and relieve Berlin and strike. We may want to keep nuclear weapons at a tactical level, but Russian superiority of numbers makes that implausible, or especially if we throw the Russians back, the Russians will respond with strategic weaponry.

Full scale, all at once launches are unlikely in my mind except through a deliberate First Strike attempt or an accident by one party leading to the launch of the missiles by the other.

 

[Bulgaroktonos]

That Resurrection Day sounds like a book based on Merkin Muffley taking the advice of General Ripper, and absent the Doomsday Machine.

 

[Glen]

I have a book at home, the name of which eludes me, that is basically an anthology of ATLs written by a few historians. The Cuban Missile Crisis was an interesting one.

Soviet commanders had recieved release orders from Moscow, something we didn't know at the time. A Soviet submarine could employ a nuclear torpedo without requesting authorization and the Soviet commander in Cuba could have launched his IRBMs the same way.

The POD for this ATL was that a Soviet submarine DID launch it's nuclear torpedo when it was pinged by an American destroyer. (In OTL, the commander held his fire, although he had prepared the torpedo for launch.)

The resultant nuclear detonation over the horizon led to immediate air strikes by the USAF in an attempt to knock out the missiles in Cuba before they could be launched, an effort that failed. Four missiles flew, one that detonated over Washington DC, one that missed and landed in farmlands in western New York, one in (IIRC) Atlanta, and one dud. With Kennedy and most of the government destroyed, command fell upon the commander of NORAD who ordered a total nuclear retaliation. The Speaker of the House was located later that day, who confirmed the actions of generals.

American response was a total launch of IRMBs out of Italy, Turkey, and Great Britain, followed by ICBMs out of the US and bomber fleets winging towards the Soviet Union. At this point, the Soviet leaders did not even know about the launching of nuclear weapons by their forces in Cuba (Soviet communications systems were poor at the outset, a loss of contact for periods of time was nothing out of the ordinary).

Major Soviet cities, military bases, and other assets were immediately destroyed by missiles. Eastern European countries saw their capitols go up in smoke, along with any Soviet military bases within their countries, but otherwise were untouched. Bombers patrolled over the Soviet airspace, looking for targets worthy of nuclear bombardment. This lasted for three days before the majority of American strategic assets had been exhausted and the pleas of European and Asian allies to cease firing were heard.

The following year, exploration teams from Europe entered into what was formerly the Soviet Union, finding less than 10% of the population still alive, the rest dead to either direct nuclear affects, radiation poisening, starvation, or societal collapse. The nuclear attack on the Soviet Union became known as the Second Holocaust.

The United States is ejected from the United Nations and demands for reparassions from the affected nations (Europeans mostly, suffering fallout) fall on deaf ears, as the United States felt it was the aggreeved party.

Was a very interesting ATL, scary in some ways, but I'm gratified to know that we could expect the US to have survived a nuclear exchange in 1962.

I'd guess that this could lead to a full nuclear exchange, especially if any of those missiles from Cuba got off the ground.

I would think that the Russians would be able at the very least to launch some of their tac nukes in Europe, so bye bye bits of Western Europe.

I doubt that the US would become the Pariah of the World for this. They were launched against first.

However, given the amount of nuclear devastation, while not absolute, unleashed, the US in particular and the world in general are going to have a rough time of things over the next several decades.

 

[Glen]

I have a book at home, the name of which eludes me, that is basically an anthology of ATLs written by a few historians. The Cuban Missile Crisis was an interesting one.

Soviet commanders had recieved release orders from Moscow, something we didn't know at the time. A Soviet submarine could employ a nuclear torpedo without requesting authorization and the Soviet commander in Cuba could have launched his IRBMs the same way.

The POD for this ATL was that a Soviet submarine DID launch it's nuclear torpedo when it was pinged by an American destroyer. (In OTL, the commander held his fire, although he had prepared the torpedo for launch.)

The resultant nuclear detonation over the horizon led to immediate air strikes by the USAF in an attempt to knock out the missiles in Cuba before they could be launched, an effort that failed. Four missiles flew, one that detonated over Washington DC, one that missed and landed in farmlands in western New York, one in (IIRC) Atlanta, and one dud. With Kennedy and most of the government destroyed, command fell upon the commander of NORAD who ordered a total nuclear retaliation. The Speaker of the House was located later that day, who confirmed the actions of generals.

American response was a total launch of IRMBs out of Italy, Turkey, and Great Britain, followed by ICBMs out of the US and bomber fleets winging towards the Soviet Union. At this point, the Soviet leaders did not even know about the launching of nuclear weapons by their forces in Cuba (Soviet communications systems were poor at the outset, a loss of contact for periods of time was nothing out of the ordinary).

Major Soviet cities, military bases, and other assets were immediately destroyed by missiles. Eastern European countries saw their capitols go up in smoke, along with any Soviet military bases within their countries, but otherwise were untouched. Bombers patrolled over the Soviet airspace, looking for targets worthy of nuclear bombardment. This lasted for three days before the majority of American strategic assets had been exhausted and the pleas of European and Asian allies to cease firing were heard.

The following year, exploration teams from Europe entered into what was formerly the Soviet Union, finding less than 10% of the population still alive, the rest dead to either direct nuclear affects, radiation poisening, starvation, or societal collapse. The nuclear attack on the Soviet Union became known as the Second Holocaust.

The United States is ejected from the United Nations and demands for reparassions from the affected nations (Europeans mostly, suffering fallout) fall on deaf ears, as the United States felt it was the aggreeved party.

Was a very interesting ATL, scary in some ways, but I'm gratified to know that we could expect the US to have survived a nuclear exchange in 1962.

I'd guess that this could lead to a full nuclear exchange, especially if any of those missiles from Cuba got off the ground.

I would think that the Russians would be able at the very least to launch some of their tac nukes in Europe, so bye bye bits of Western Europe.

I doubt that the US would become the Pariah of the World for this. They were launched against first.

However, given the amount of nuclear devastation, while not absolute, unleashed, the US in particular and the world in general are going to have a rough time of things over the next several decades.

 

[Glen]

I have a book at home, the name of which eludes me, that is basically an anthology of ATLs written by a few historians. The Cuban Missile Crisis was an interesting one.

Soviet commanders had recieved release orders from Moscow, something we didn't know at the time. A Soviet submarine could employ a nuclear torpedo without requesting authorization and the Soviet commander in Cuba could have launched his IRBMs the same way.

The POD for this ATL was that a Soviet submarine DID launch it's nuclear torpedo when it was pinged by an American destroyer. (In OTL, the commander held his fire, although he had prepared the torpedo for launch.)

The resultant nuclear detonation over the horizon led to immediate air strikes by the USAF in an attempt to knock out the missiles in Cuba before they could be launched, an effort that failed. Four missiles flew, one that detonated over Washington DC, one that missed and landed in farmlands in western New York, one in (IIRC) Atlanta, and one dud. With Kennedy and most of the government destroyed, command fell upon the commander of NORAD who ordered a total nuclear retaliation. The Speaker of the House was located later that day, who confirmed the actions of generals.

American response was a total launch of IRMBs out of Italy, Turkey, and Great Britain, followed by ICBMs out of the US and bomber fleets winging towards the Soviet Union. At this point, the Soviet leaders did not even know about the launching of nuclear weapons by their forces in Cuba (Soviet communications systems were poor at the outset, a loss of contact for periods of time was nothing out of the ordinary).

Major Soviet cities, military bases, and other assets were immediately destroyed by missiles. Eastern European countries saw their capitols go up in smoke, along with any Soviet military bases within their countries, but otherwise were untouched. Bombers patrolled over the Soviet airspace, looking for targets worthy of nuclear bombardment. This lasted for three days before the majority of American strategic assets had been exhausted and the pleas of European and Asian allies to cease firing were heard.

The following year, exploration teams from Europe entered into what was formerly the Soviet Union, finding less than 10% of the population still alive, the rest dead to either direct nuclear affects, radiation poisening, starvation, or societal collapse. The nuclear attack on the Soviet Union became known as the Second Holocaust.

The United States is ejected from the United Nations and demands for reparassions from the affected nations (Europeans mostly, suffering fallout) fall on deaf ears, as the United States felt it was the aggreeved party.

Was a very interesting ATL, scary in some ways, but I'm gratified to know that we could expect the US to have survived a nuclear exchange in 1962.

I'd guess that this could lead to a full nuclear exchange, especially if any of those missiles from Cuba got off the ground.

I would think that the Russians would be able at the very least to launch some of their tac nukes in Europe, so bye bye bits of Western Europe.

I doubt that the US would become the Pariah of the World for this. They were launched against first.

However, given the amount of nuclear devastation, while not absolute, unleashed, the US in particular and the world in general are going to have a rough time of things over the next several decades.

 

[DMA]

I can't really remember the exact details of the damage to the US. I'm pretty sure they lost San Diego and NY & DC coped a couple each as well. The Soviet forces in Cuba deployed nukes (on FROG missiles I think) against US Marine landings but the book doesn't really go into naval clashes or sub-launched nukes in much detail at all. The given reason the US didn't get wiped out was due to their ability (along with Canada) to shoot down the majority of Soviet bombers and a massive strike on the USSR and its land-based weapon systems.

As I said, the details were a bit sketchy, particularly since the book revolves around discovering the 'true' story of what happened on that day and not the 'official' history provided by those who survived (like LeMay).

There were also some SS-4 Sandals on Cuba as well. They had a range of about 2 000km with a 1 Mt warhead.
From what I understand, overall there were about 60 IRBMs. So the southern & eastern part of the USA were well within range.

The FROGs were battlefield missiles. They would have been used on the invasion fleet & beachhead (as you've indicated).

Elsewhere, as I mentioned, there are 36 Soviet ICBMs. 4 were the SS-6. These had about a 8 000km range with a 3-5 Mt warhead. The others were the SS-7. It had about a 13 000km range with 3x5-6Mt warheads.

The Soviet SLBM force consisted of 66 SS-N-4 SLBMs. Their range was limited to about 600kms with a 1Mt warhead. There were also 6 SS-N-5s with a range of 1 400km & a 1Mt warhead.

So from that, even if we leave out most of the SLBM force, due to its short range, the USA will get hit with about 100 warheads (provided they all work). But let's say there's a 25% error margin, well that's still 75 1-6 Mt warheads which hit their targets more or less. That's still going to be a major hit on the USA.

Totally unrelated: Just noticed your location. My father used to captain the patrol boat HMAS Cessnock.

Great to hear that your dad used to captain the boat named after my town. I bet he's sad that she's being retired. Alas we're not even getting her wheel to place somewhere as a memorial, let alone the whole boat

 

[Romulus Augustulus]

IIRC, the Frogs were mainly Luna rockets. Short range, small warhead. Had the US landed in Cuba, they'd have been used against US landing troops...

If the US managed to knock out all the Soviet nuclear forces in Cuba with a preemptive strike, do you think that a terse session over the Hotline would have been enough to prevent the war from escalating further? Let's say that a rogue general does it without Kennedy's orders and Khruschev has a fit of sanity...

 

[DMA]

If the US managed to knock out all the Soviet nuclear forces in Cuba with a preemptive strike, do you think that a terse session over the Hotline would have been enough to prevent the war from escalating further? Let's say that a rogue general does it without Kennedy's orders and Khruschev has a fit of sanity...

Well that's a big IF in knocking out the Soviet nukes in Cuba. That's the whole problem here. Le May couldn't give Kennedy a 100% guarantee. Only a 90% one. Well that's enough to ensure 6 major US cities are nuked including Washington, NYC, & name the other four of your chosing. Then again the Soviets may see them coming, or some incident with a reconnaissance aircraft may panic the Soivets, & all 60 IRBMs are launched.

In either instance it doesn't really matter, as the USA had just been nuked with JFK mostly likely dead. If so, then there's no chance that'll be any negotiation over the Hotline, as WWIII is well & truly on.

 

[Romulus Augustulus]

Let's say that of the 6 missiles launched, they don't hit major cities, only hitting places that are fairly out-of-the way. Kennedy is still alive.

 

[DMA]

Let's say that of the 6 missiles launched, they don't hit major cities, only hitting places that are fairly out-of-the way. Kennedy is still alive.

That's extremely unlikely & why would the Soviets do that. It's well known that Soviet doctrine dictated that cities & major military bases were targeted. So kisses goodbye to Washington, NYC, & four other locations (all probably cities). Furthermore, I'd highly doubt Le May's estimate of 90% success rate at getting the missiles. Considering the Soviets are expecting an attack, it wouldn't suprise me that they are thus prepared. As a result the USAF probably only gets around 50% of the missiles. That means the USA gets hit with 30 IRBMs each worth 1 Mt. That's gonna hurt.

 

[Mr_ Bondoc]

Something to Consider...

-First, in an ATL wherein Cuba attacked by the U.S. , you will have a situation wherein the state of Florida will face a massive humnitarian disaster in the form of a boatlift ,that would dwarf OTL's 1980 Mariel boatlift. Cuban refugees would certainly shock the residents of Miami and Fort Lauderdale...

-Second, with the collapse of the Cuban government, you have two options. First, you have the right-wing Cuban exiles take over the country such as Colonel Duney Perez Alamo, Liberating Army of Cuba. Another group that would certainly take advantage of the situation is the Mafia, with its operations in Havanna from before the Cuban Revolution....

 

[Romulus Augustulus]

Hmm...what to do? How to do it?

The military planners who have to flesh out an attack plan on Cuba are in a decidedly unenviable position.

Do you think that the US attacking Cuba, with tactical use of the FROG rockets, but without the launching of the IRBMs, is plausible? Maybe the US attacks when there are only a few IRBMs on the island, and they have just arrived, and haven't been set up, and US nuclear strikes take them out...

God damn it, this is going to require some thinking over.

 

[DMA]

-First, in an ATL wherein Cuba attacked by the U.S. , you will have a situation wherein the state of Florida will face a massive humnitarian disaster in the form of a boatlift ,that would dwarf OTL's 1980 Mariel boatlift. Cuban refugees would certainly shock the residents of Miami and Fort Lauderdale...

-Second, with the collapse of the Cuban government, you have two options. First, you have the right-wing Cuban exiles take over the country such as Colonel Duney Perez Alamo, Liberating Army of Cuba. Another group that would certainly take advantage of the situation is the Mafia, with its operations in Havanna from before the Cuban Revolution....

Well all this is fine as long as Florida isn't nuked by the Soviets. Needless to say, considering it's close, i'd dare say that several locations in Florida would suffer nuclear attack. It may indeed be safer for the Cubans to remain in Cuba, whilst the right-wing Cuba exiles have been killed.

 

[DMA]

Hmm...what to do? How to do it?

The military planners who have to flesh out an attack plan on Cuba are in a decidedly unenviable position .

I'd dare say this is why JFK said no. There is no 100% guarantee that the nukes would be completely taken out.

Do you think that the US attacking Cuba, with tactical use of the FROG rockets, but without the launching of the IRBMs, is plausible? Maybe the US attacks when there are only a few IRBMs on the island, and they have just arrived, and haven't been set up, and US nuclear strikes take them out...

Such an invasion would ensure that the Soviets use everything in a use-it-or-lose-it strategy. Not only does the American military suffer horrendous casulties, thanks to the FROGs, but 60 IRBMs hit the USA.

God damn it, this is going to require some thinking over.

I bet good money JFK got some grey hairs out of the experience