For purposes of comparison with Amerigo Vespucci's very well done
Cuban Missile War TL...
Below is a TL that I've put together, of events described in Robert O'Connell's essay "The Cuban Missile Crisis: Second Holocaust" from the book "What Ifs? of American History".
I think there are several significant implausibilities in O'Connell's scenario, which I may post my thoughts on later. But it's the only other Cuban missile war scenario I've ever seen that remotely approaches Amerigo's in detail, and (although in my opinion the probability of the missile crisis resulting in a strategic nuclear exchange, was actually extremely low) the US launching a massive nuclear strike in response to a limited Soviet strike, might be more plausible than the Soviets launching a massive nuclear first strike (as in Amerigo's TL), given the Soviets' huge strategic disadvantage.
"Two Days War" Timeline (beginning with POD)
Oct 27, 1962
1:43 pm: US Navy destroyers
Blandy and
Domado detect Soviet B-130 sub moving toward US aircraft carrier
Randolph.
Blandy responds by dropping depth charges as a warning, unaware that the sub was armed with a nuclear torpedo, which the sub commander, Captain Anatoli Shumkov, had the authority to fire if the hull was breached. B-130 surfaces shortly thereafter.
2:12 pm:
Randolph destroyed by nuclear torpedo fired from B-130, B-130 sunk by fire from the 2 US destroyers.
2:46 pm: Order goes out from National Command Authority to execute Op Plan 312 (airstrikes) followed by 316 (invasion). Plan 316 will consist of paradrops of the 82nd and 101st Airborne Divisions, along with amphibious landings by 10 batalions of Marines, waiting in ships off Cuba's northwest coast.
As the first US F-100 and F-101B fighter bombers sweep in from the north, one of the local Soviet commanders (probably either General Pliyev or Igor Statsenko) chooses on his own authority to employ nuclear weapons. Four Soviet nuclear-armed Frogs are fired at Guantanamo, destroying the base and the 2nd Marine Division. Two nuclear cruise missles are fired in the direction of the Marine ships offshore, both miss by over a mile.
Air strikes hit Soviet missile bases at San Cristobal, Sagua la Grande, and Remedios. However, several bombs released over San Cristobal fail to detonate, leaving 2 of the 42 SS-4s and their launch sites undamaged. During the lull, Soviet crews manage to prepare the 2 surviving missiles for launch, obtain their associated nuclear warheads, mate them to the missiles, and complete the arming procedures.
4:10 pm: First surviving SS-4 launched.
4:18 pm: First SS-4 impacts in field 42 miles short of Cincinnati, warhead malfunctions and does not detonate.
4:18 pm: Second surviving SS-4 launched.
4:25 pm: Second SS-4 detonates approx. 2000 feet above the Lincoln Memorial in Washington, DC. 640-kiloton blast levels everything within radius of 1.5 miles, including the White House and the Pentagon. President Kennedy and VP Johnson killed, along with entire national Command Authority. This decapitation of US leadership seals the doom of the USSR, had Kennedy lived it is likely that he would have responded in a measured manner.
4:52 pm: SAC head General Thomas Powers, having been advised that a nuclear blast has gone off directly above DC, and having failed to establish contact with any elements of the NCA, sends orders to SAC elements around the world to initiate the SIOP.
At the beginning of the war, the USA has over 3,500 nuclear warheads capable of reaching the USSR: Including about 174 deployed ICBMs, 105 IRBMs, 128 SLBMS, and more than 3,000 bombs on a fleet of over 1,500 bombers (although not stated in the essay, at this time the USA was capable of hitting the uSSR with about 2,000 megatons).
In contrast, the USSR has only about 250 nuclear warheads capable of reaching the US: Including about 25 ICBMs, and 42 SS-4 IRBMs in Cuba (although not stated in the essay, at this time the USSR was capable of hitting the USA with about 200 megatons- Soviet weapons having a higher average yield).
5:00 pm: The first of 14 Jupiter and Thor IRBMs, each armed with a 4-megaton W-49 warhead, begin impacting in and around Moscow, Leningrad, and several military targets, paralyzing Soviet command and control and the ability to coordinate a response.
5:14 pm: General Powers is put in touch telephonically with Speaker of the House John W. McCormack, who is at home for the weekend in the Boston area, and who has already been located and sworn in as President. When Powers informs him of his order, President McCormack replies: "Johnny and Lyndon are dead. You only did what you had to."
5:22 pm: A flight of B-47E Stratojets, each armed with mutiple 9-megaton Mk-53 gravity bombs, begins dropping the first of a total of 41 nuclear weapons that will be detonated over Cuba during the Two Days War (killing 95% of the Cuban population). Soviet-manned Cuban air defenses manage to shoot down only 4 B-47s before collapsing.
5:25 pm: The first of 35 Atlas and Titan ICBMs, also armed with W-49 warheads, begin hitting Soviet civilian and military targets.
5:25-7:00 pm: 63 more ICBMs, and 70 more Jupiter and Thor IRBMs, begin hitting their targets. Seven missiles launched during this period malfunction catastrophically at or near their points of departure, creating serious contamination problems at IRBM bases in Italy and the UK, which were close to population centers.
8:00 pm: The first SAC bombers, supersonic B-58 Hustlers, begin arriving over the USSR. Each is carrying either a single Mk-53 or up to 5 1-megaton B-43s. With their command and control shattered, and their SAMS designed for much slower targets, Soviet air defenses are virtually helpless. The Hustlers are followed by 242 B-52G and H-model heavy bombers, which after releasing their 2 cruise missiles against pre-programmed targets, spend the next several hours wandering the Russian heartland in fruitless search of viable remaining targets for their Mk-41 and B-53 gravity bombs.
10:00 pm: A 611 AV-class Soviet ballistic missile submarine surfaces 55 miles west of Virgina Beach. Over the next 15-20 minutes, it launches two R-11FM missiles in the direction of the Norfolk naval base. Both overshoot the mark, the first landing in open country north of Fort Pickett, the other hitting Sussex, Virginia. Together, both blasts kill less than 6,000 people, but they lead US military authorities to conclude the USSR is still dangerous.
12:00 pm: By the end of the first day of the war, the USSR and its allies have been subjected to over 950 nuclear blasts.
Oct 28, 1962
3:00 am: By this time, 13 hours after the initiation of hostilities, 5 members of the US sub fleet have launched their Polaris A-1s and A-2s against Soviet targets. Many malfunction, but over 50 detonate at or near their targets, obliterating coastal assets along the Baltic and Barents seas, the Black Sea, and in the Pacific. Meanwhile, an armada of B-47s and tactical attack aircraft has gone after Soviet ground force concentrations in East Germany, Poland, Czechoslovakia, and Romania (Hungary is the lone Warsaw Pact nation to be spared, presumably due to its revolt against communism and Soviet occupation in 1956).
Throughout the second and final day of the war, secondary strikes are carried out with another 370 nuclear weapons, all but a few within Russia. Many targets are "reserviced", but a substantial number of nuclear weapons are detonated in Siberia, with the intention of creating huge forest firestorms.
Dec 1962
One month after the end of the war, total US casualties are about 300,000. Total Soviet casualties are about 150 million out of 233 million, or 60-70% of the prewar population. The states of Eastern Europe, whose urban centers were spared, still suffer immediate casualties ranging from 15-30%.
1963
Jan 1: By this date, "nuclear twilight" has reduced sunlight by up to 50%, in the Northern Hemisphere between 30 and 60 degrees latitude, resulting in the coldest winter on record. The virtual absence of spring in the Northern Hemisphere, and the resultant drop in food production, produces severe famines in India and China, and serious food shortages across Europe and North America.
Nov: One year after the end of the war, roughly 2/3rds of the 80 million Soviet citizens who were still alive in Dec 1962, have died from starvation and the effects of radiation. leaving the population of the former USSR only a little more than 10% of the prewar level.
The term "Second Holocaust" is first applied to the conflict, and the USA is increasingly viewed as malefactor by people around the globe. The trend will gain momentum until the US is virtually ostracized from the world community.
1964: 75-year old President McCorMack doesn't run for re-election. GOP presidential nominee, former VP Richard Nixon, defeats Democratic nominee Senator Henry Jackson, after Nixon seizes the initiative with his famous "nothing to be ashamed of" speech.
1966: Nixon administration refuses to particpate in the 1966 Geneva Convention for the Abolition of Nuclear Armaments, leaving the USA a minority of one. Nixon also decides to rebuild the war-depleted nuclear stockpile, continue Minuteman ICBM development, and prioritize the development of a ballistic missile defense.
1967: NATO collapses when the entire European membership withdraws. Movement to expel the US sweeps the UN General Assembly.
1968
Jan 23, 1968: In televised address, Nixon renounces UN membership and orders all UN functions and functionaries out of New York.
Nixon is defeated for re-election by Eugene McCarthy, who wins a record 76% of the popular vote, on a platform of "global reconciliation and healing".
Oct 1972: By the eve of the 1972 election, President McCarthy has re-established diplomatic relations with 24 states, and the US has resumed "observational" status in the UN, offering to take up full membership if and when resolutions dealing with war guilt and reparations are dropped. Food from bountiful US harvests is being distributed to the "Victim States". US international trade is again growing, and the US is participating in the GATT deliberations.
The Danforth Commission recommends that the US should become a state Party to the Geneva Convention for Abolition of Nuclear Armaments at the earliest posible date.
Oct 27, 2002: On the 40th anniversary of the Two Days War, Archivist of the United Unites Newton Gingrich (his office located in the JFK Memorial Records Center, in the New Capital District at Cheyenne Mountain), sends a copy of the declassified Danforth Commission report to Ted Stevens, Chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.