Why not Game this?
Let's say our scenario is US strikes Cuba, Russia strikes US in response (possibly thinking they are going to be next anyway) and US strikes back.
Soviet IRBM's in Cuba
Draw up a target list for each missle. Retargeting with missles is not easy back then so retargeting missles with medium priority targets to highest priority targets won't happen.
Assume a probability of surviving American attack on Cuba
Assume a probability of being ready to launch even if not destroyed (eg. 80%)
Assume a reliability of missle (IRBM's should have a higher reliability than ICBM's)
Use weird dice or (preferably) random numbers. If the latter you can also make a CEP assumption, fiddle with that equation and see how off target the missle lands--if the CEP is large this is significant even against soft targets like cities. If you want to add more sophistication you can factor in the chance that the burst was too low (becoming in effect a surface burst) or too high (a less destructive air burst).
With the ICBM's the Soviets strike first. So you have ready to launch probability and and reliability to factor in (plus CEP if you want to throw that in). Theoretically those not ready to launch in the first strike could become ready later but they would have to survive the American counterstrike.
With bombers you need to make assumptions about NORAD's ability to intercept as well as how many are available (should be not much more than 65% if this is a short notice first strike). Bombers could be retargeted easily and so they may not be assigned to targets already destroyed by missles. Some (eg. 15%) are likely to be standoff jammers not carrying a bomb but increasing the chances of those that are.
SLBM's -- Need to factor in subs "on station", at sea but not on station and in port. Note a short notice first strike as opposed to a long time to prepare first strike makes a big difference here. Those on station fire in the first strike--again need to calculate readiness and reliability. Those at sea but not on station you need to assign a probability they are destroyed before they can launch--by sub not by missle. If they survive they must be ready (but that's a high probability) and then they must pass a relaibility check. Those in port should be incinerated by the American counterstrike.
Tom B
Let's say our scenario is US strikes Cuba, Russia strikes US in response (possibly thinking they are going to be next anyway) and US strikes back.
Soviet IRBM's in Cuba
Draw up a target list for each missle. Retargeting with missles is not easy back then so retargeting missles with medium priority targets to highest priority targets won't happen.
Assume a probability of surviving American attack on Cuba
Assume a probability of being ready to launch even if not destroyed (eg. 80%)
Assume a reliability of missle (IRBM's should have a higher reliability than ICBM's)
Use weird dice or (preferably) random numbers. If the latter you can also make a CEP assumption, fiddle with that equation and see how off target the missle lands--if the CEP is large this is significant even against soft targets like cities. If you want to add more sophistication you can factor in the chance that the burst was too low (becoming in effect a surface burst) or too high (a less destructive air burst).
With the ICBM's the Soviets strike first. So you have ready to launch probability and and reliability to factor in (plus CEP if you want to throw that in). Theoretically those not ready to launch in the first strike could become ready later but they would have to survive the American counterstrike.
With bombers you need to make assumptions about NORAD's ability to intercept as well as how many are available (should be not much more than 65% if this is a short notice first strike). Bombers could be retargeted easily and so they may not be assigned to targets already destroyed by missles. Some (eg. 15%) are likely to be standoff jammers not carrying a bomb but increasing the chances of those that are.
SLBM's -- Need to factor in subs "on station", at sea but not on station and in port. Note a short notice first strike as opposed to a long time to prepare first strike makes a big difference here. Those on station fire in the first strike--again need to calculate readiness and reliability. Those at sea but not on station you need to assign a probability they are destroyed before they can launch--by sub not by missle. If they survive they must be ready (but that's a high probability) and then they must pass a relaibility check. Those in port should be incinerated by the American counterstrike.
Tom B