Cuban Missile War scenario 2

How is my scenario?

  • Too many cities hit

    Votes: 8 38.1%
  • Two few cities hit

    Votes: 7 33.3%
  • Just about right

    Votes: 5 23.8%
  • Right number, but different targeting

    Votes: 1 4.8%

  • Total voters
    21
US invades Cuba October 31 morning in response to U2 plane shootdown. Troops destroyed by battlefield nukes as they reach beaches, and any missiles ready are launched. Kennedy realizes this is it, orders first strike on Russia. Simultaneously Krushchev realizes use it or lose it and orders countervalue strike of everything they have against US.
New York several hits
Washington several hits
New Orleans one hit
Miami one hit
Los Angeles several hits
Seattle one hit
Chicago one hit
Denver one hit
Portland one hit
San Francisco one hit
Detroit one hit
Birmingham one hit
Atlanta one hit
Charleston one hit
Cleveland one near miss takes out London Ontario (and gives me a chance)
This is way beyond what the Google group sees as plausible, BTW.
 

Diamond

Banned
I voted for 'too many', but I don't think its high by much. The only gripe I have is Denver, Seattle, Portland, San Fran getting it. That's out of range for any nukes in Cuba I would think; what hit those four? Bombers?

Also, why wasn't anything in Texas hit? There are significant air and naval facilities along the Gulf, not to mention all the oil. Nuke a few oil fields and it might really put a crimp in our style.
 
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Too few IMHO, although I accept the list you've provided. But I agree with Diamond that Texas would be hit along with a couple of other cities such as San Diego, Baltimore & probably Pearl Harbor.

It wouldn't surprise me either that the airforce bases in Alaska are among the first hit (although you'd probably use SS-4s to hit Alaska & not ICBMs). So kiss good bye to Anchorage as well.
 
Gotta agree with Diamond here--only way those west coast cities can be nailed will be by subs or bombers--what was USSR's sub and bomber capability back then?

I would expect a few more hits on Texas and Florida--way too many nice targets there to pass up.

Oh--and way to go wiping out London Ontario--the town was dull but UWO was a really fun university :mad:
 
Diamond said:
The only gripe I have is Denver, Seattle, Portland, San Fran getting it. That's out of range for any nukes in Cuba I would think; what hit those four? Bombers?
The 36 Russian ICBM force can get all of these cities you've mentioned. Then there's 72 Soviet SLBMs to contend with. So you can take your choice of instrument of destruction - an ICBM or SLBM.

BTW the SS-6 ICBMs are pretty nasty with a 3-5Mt blast. The SS-N-4 SLBM is much milder at only 1Mt blast.
 
Doctor What said:
Gotta agree with Diamond here--only way those west coast cities can be nailed will be by subs or bombers--what was USSR's sub and bomber capability back then?
As I posted on the other thread, here are the numbers, according to the Natural Resources Defence Council ( http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/nudb/datainx.asp ), that the Soviets & Americans had in 1962:

USSR

ICBM = 36
SLBM = 72
TU95A = 80
MYA4 = 58


USA

ICBM = 203
SLBM = 144
B47 = 880
B52 = 639
B57 = 76

Based on these figures, yes a large number of America cities could be hit, but the American response could destroy the Soviet ability to wage further war.
 
Doctor What said:
Any info or ideas on failure rates of Soviet ICBM or SLBM? I would be very surprised if all of them were successful.
I'd say a 50% defect rate would be an honest estimate covering all aspects, from failure to launch, to destruction in flight, to failure to explode, etc. It varies, of course, depending on the individual weapons system. Dont forget, though, almost all of the Soviet missiles are brand new, being no more than 2-4 years old. Whether that means they have a lower error rate one can't conclude however.

Anyway, here's a link to the Federation of American Scientist's page about all things Soviet missiles http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/russia/index.html . It has a good analysis of each weapons system.
 
Nice sites--must remember to bookmark them.

Chart gives a figure of 522 strategic warheads (counting bombers) for USSR in 1962. Assuming 50% failure rate (I'm also assuming similar high attrition rates for the bombers), that still gives us over 260 nukes making it to U.S and allied targets. :eek:

Oh merde....
 
Oh Merde Almightly - especially when one only counts the ICBMs & SLBMs - that's 108 missiles in total. And, as I say, if the error rate is indeed 50% (which maybe too high considering the Soviets aren't too bad getting weapons systems working reasonably well), well that still means that 54 missiles get through. What's worse is all of them have a warhead that's at least 1Mt.

And yes, I agree about the overall figure of 260 strategic warheads. Nasty stuff. But if you compare it, with say 1973 where a Yom Kippur War could go nuclear involving the USA & USSR, it's a whole lot worse as the Soviets have 595 SLBM warheads & 1 462 ICBM warheads, whilst the USA has 3536 SLBM warheads & 1844 ICBM warheads.

So if the Cuban Missile Crisis did end in a nuclear war, although very destructive, ironically the two combantants, & indeed the world, would probably survive relatively intact with the USA victor - albeit a wounded one. On the other hand, a nuclear war, however, in 1973, would probably see our planetary destruction. Amazing what a decade makes...
 
DMA said:
So if the Cuban Missile Crisis did end in a nuclear war, although very destructive, ironically the two combantants, & indeed the world, would probably survive relatively intact with the USA victor - albeit a wounded one. On the other hand, a nuclear war, however, in 1973, would probably see our planetary destruction. Amazing what a decade makes...
Ah- progress....
 
As I said before, the Google group gives the Rooskies just Portland and that is by the grace of Satan (anyone else here a member?). Say Baltimore is wrecked by the one just to the NE of Washington. I will add Houston and Dallas to the witches brew.
BTW, in case you haven't guessed, I am hoping to try a TL just One More Time and want to get the bugs out before I start.
 
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Diamond

Banned
tom said:
BTW, in case you haven't guessed, I am hoping to try a TL just One More Time and want to get the bugs out before I start.
I don't think you'll EVER get all the bugs worked out on a Cuban Missile War TL. There's just too many different opinions and points of view; you're never going to please everyone. ;)
 
Alas Baylon

That novel was I believe set in the early 1960's and dealt with US try to rebuild from nuclear war. It gave the Soviets more ICBM's than they really had ("missle gap") and so while the US destruction projected is more than what would happen in a Cuban Crisis War, the author does not see it was the end of the world. Life is made a lot tougher but it goes on and America will rebuild.

So you should look it over before doing the TL (unless you are already familiar).
 
The only question I have is, don't you expect some percentage of Sov nuclear forces will be brought to bear against Western Europe, particularly military installations? After all, an attack on the US wouldn't bring just American retaliation. At the very least, bombers would be targeting London, American airbases in East Anglia, West Germany, etc., diluting the potency of available warheads/bombs sent against the continental US.
 
They would hit those targets with medium bombers and shorter ranged missiles, not included in the figures others have provided.

One questiopn I have is what sort of range was typical for Russian SLBMs in 1962?

If their subs have to push into US waters to launch I imagine most would be eliminated before they could do so.
 
Matthew Craw said:
One questiopn I have is what sort of range was typical for Russian SLBMs in 1962?

If their subs have to push into US waters to launch I imagine most would be eliminated before they could do so.
The Soviet SLBMs force at this time is made up entirely of the SS-N-4. This missle has a range of 600km. So they are probably some distance from US territory when they launch. The other thing is trying to find the Soviet boats as the USN doesn't have anything like an LA class SSN at this point in time. Thus it's completely conceivable that most, if not all, of the Soviet SLBMs will be launched prior to USN intervention. Afterall, the USN destroyers, the very ships that are committed with the task of sub hunting, are blockading Cuba.
 
I am reading Resurrection Day.
If warheads are left over, add Milwaukee, Boston, Buffalo, St Louis, Pittsburgh Cincinnati, Honolulu and Anchorage. Defining "several" as three, this means I have used up about 30 warheads. Some will not even come close to working (Murphy's Law works for Russians, too...especially with their equipment and the US military doing their best to snafu Russia's WMD) so this sounds like a reasonable total. That gives every region of the nation at least one huge headache, and generally several. We should end up at least as bad as Resurrection Day or Alas Babylon. That seems a fair compromise for this forum (the Google group would just laugh).
 
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We don't need a compromise, we need to determine if this is a sneak attack, and by which superpower, and whether it actually gains surprise.
 
I don't see a sneek attack having any meaning in any nuclear war. But in this case, the only ones who would try a sneek attack would have been the USA on Cuba, although this would be a conventional attack & not nuclear. Yet even with such an attack, Demay told JFK that the USAF would only get 90% of the Soviet IRBMs, not 100%. So that means something like 5 IRBMs survive which can be launched.

But the launching of these 5 IRBMs from Cuba won't be the end of it, it'll only be the beginning. JFK will be forced to act when 5 USA targets are destroyed. This will be after the fact, because it takes only only 5 minutes between the launches & the explosions. In a similar fashion, Moscow will find out about the same time as JFK, so both the Soviets & Americans are issuing their respective orders at the same time. The order JFK issues is to attack Russia (as per his Presidencial Announcement so he's trapped into this action) with missiles first, then send in the bombers. The Russian order is to go to nuclear alert & get ready to push the button at a moments notice.

JFK orders take about 30 minutes or so before they can be put into effect. During this time, hundreds of bombers leave their bases whilst ICBMs & SLBMs are readied. Then the Americans launch their 347 missiles at Russia. The Soviets see this not long afterwards & reply with their combined total of 108 missiles as the Soviets have little choice other than loose everything. Their small force of 80 TU-90 bombers also take off, not forgetting all the fighters they can spare.

Elsewhere, the Soviets launch IRBMs at various targets in Europe & Alaska. This ensures that any military effort from Europe is limited, whilst the nearest American bomber bases & radar stations spying on Soviet territory are destroyed.

The overall problem, however, for the Russians is that they're going to get hammered much more than the USA. Nonetheless, at least 30 American cities are going to be destroyed along with a large number of military bases. Having said that, USA wins the nuclear war albeit gravely wounded.
 
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