Cuba without Castro

I don't see what's so idealistic about it. Mexico, Chile, Argentina, and Brazil are all now substantially wealthier than Cuba. That wasn't the case 50 years ago, and it's not crazy to think it would have been wealthier absent Castro.

And FWIW, I oppose the embargo, and think as far as dictatorships go, Castro's is pretty mild. I also acknowledged that his regime has real, substantial achievements in social welfare - health in particular, and that without him, Cuba would probably have more severe poverty.

Pure riches don't mean jack - what use is to make riches , if it remains in the hands of an elite, not distribued, answer the left. As you implies.

Batista's regime made Cuba a large brothel and casino, blunt truth. Castro may have been better, finally.
 
Cuba's medical industry and healthcare is at least one thing that has prospered thanks to Castro's government.
 
Castro coulkd be KIA or die at anypoint in the revolution, but here are some particularly likely points:

Castro is killed in the attack on the Moncada Barracks.
Casto is either executed or has an accident (or an "accident") while in Presidio Modelo.
Granma sinks on it's way to Cuba. It was leaky and way overcrowded, and the passage was rough.
Batista's forces kill Castro before he reaches the Sierra Maestra. Castro and co were spotted almost immediately and attacked by the army.

Or - have Batista not run again after his retirement (and make him stick to that). Castro runs as an Orthodoxo candidate to the Cuban Chamber of Deputies as planned, Agramonte becomes President, no cancelled election, everything runs more or less smoothly. As a member of the Partido Orthodoxo, Castro won't be unique and hence would be a very minor figure in Cuban history in TTL. How does that sound?
 
I'd say it's a strange assumption that there wouldn't be any Cuban revolution without Fidel Castro.

Well, you have to remember that there was already a Cuban Revolution in the 1930s, which ousted the Machado dictatorship. It's from that Cuban Revolution that Batista emerged from, and was initially a good guy (and a friend of the Cuban Communist Party for a while, too) who helped form the very progressive (for its time) 1940 Constitution. If Batista stuck to his retirement, he would have been hailed as a great Cuban patriot akin to Lázaro Cárdenas im Mexico. That could be the POD.
 
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