Cuba - What if the US recognizes Castro as new leader of Cuba

I believe Fidel Casrto initially did not want to join the "Communist Bloc" after ousting Batista. The Communist (Cuban) were only one part of the Coalition.

So What if the US believes Castro to be just another Presidente and continues "normal" relations with Cuba...
 
I think there were two strains of U.S. anti-communism:

1) we wanted countries that aligned militarily with us, or at least staunchly neutral,

2) we wanted governments friendly to status quo U.S. business interests.

Yes, it could have probably worked out that we focused on the first one in reference to Cuba:
 
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For one thing, we wouldn't have had the embargo, which now seems more like a long held temper tantrum in hindsight. The thing I wonder though is what would happen in the rest of Latin America? The apparent success of Castro in Cuba inspired a wave of popular revolt in the region. I wonder, if Castro was in the pro-America camp, would this wave have still happened, or might we even see a string of leftist coups and/or governments rise up, or would it just be business as usual?
 
Castro could have actively laid a wreath at the Lincoln Memorial and it wouldn't have mattered if he continued to run contrary to American business interests.
 
Well, even with the embargo Cuba managed to build a solid education system and a singularly impressive healthcare system... Without the embargo, and with tourist dollars from the get-go, Cuba could have been seriously uplifted.
 
Castro could have actively laid a wreath at the Lincoln Memorial and it wouldn't have mattered if he continued to run contrary to American business interests.

If the Americans had known with foresight what they knew with hindsight - that an estranged Cuba would jump into the Soviet sphere, with all the risks that ran - the business interests might have been overriden by national security concerns.

I don't see why it's not possible in principle that some kind of deal could have been done whereby Cuba nationalised land and industry but paid fair compensation, using funds borrowed from US banks and underwritten by the US government, in return for a mutual military agreement.

That kind of deal would have meant Castro having to cut out the communists from his alliance at some point not too long after the revolution but then as he had to cut out the non-communist elements anyway, he should have been able to cope with that, particularly if he had covert US support.
 
I believe Fidel Casrto initially did not want to join the "Communist Bloc" after ousting Batista. The Communist (Cuban) were only one part of the Coalition.

So What if the US believes Castro to be just another Presidente and continues "normal" relations with Cuba...

Well, my opinion is that Castro would be implacably hostile to the U.S., would elevate Communists such as Guevara to high positions, would purge the government of all those not personally loyal to him, would cultivate close relations with the USSR, and would confiscate American property without compensation, thus provoking the U.S. to seek regime change and break relations.

The basis for my opinion is that that is what Castro did OTL. And there is no PoD, because the US recognized Castro's government six days after Batista fled the country.
 
Well, my opinion is that Castro would be implacably hostile to the U.S., would elevate Communists such as Guevara to high positions, would purge the government of all those not personally loyal to him, would cultivate close relations with the USSR, and would confiscate American property without compensation, thus provoking the U.S. to seek regime change and break relations.

The basis for my opinion is that that is what Castro did OTL. And there is no PoD, because the US recognized Castro's government six days after Batista fled the country.

Indeed - there would have to be some PoD to generate the outcome of warmer US-Cuba relations, so let's invent one. How about that someone in State recognises the strategic risk that the revolution poses and persuades Eisenhower (who carries great personal prestige and has no need of re-election) to take a more proactive role in ensuring that the new regime remains 'on-side' in the big picture.
 
I believe Fidel Casrto initially did not want to join the "Communist Bloc" after ousting Batista. The Communist (Cuban) were only one part of the Coalition.

So What if the US believes Castro to be just another Presidente and continues "normal" relations with Cuba...

Uh, the US *did* recognize Castro in 1959. (It was encouraged by the moderation of Castro's first cabinet, https://books.google.com/books?id=-VeZK81tlZcC&pg=PA121&lpg=PA121 though of course the moderates in the cabinet did not have any real power and in any event were soon replaced; as early as January 1959 a much more radical "parallel government" was taking shape involving Raul Castro, Che, and the leadership of the PSP [the Cuban Communist Party] https://books.google.com/books?id=PujjJ_FFy-wC&pg=PA146 long before the US policies, like cutting the sugar quota, that are said to have "driven" Castro to a more radical position.) Though it's true that relations began to deteriorate in a matter of months.
 
This is my POD, Cuba's airforce used UK piston fighters, when they wanted to by british jets, USA told not to do so, and then Cuba, like the Spanish Republic in 1936 has only a place to get modern weapons the URSS. So say now USA offers Castro jet planes, no the most new, but something to show that they are interested partners.

Remember capitalists when you embargoed a left wing goverment YOU MAKE SURE IT TURNS COMMUNIST
 

FMannerly

Banned
Miami Cubans would be either disappointed or indignant.
Considering that the established Miami Cubans had paid for the Granma in the first place, they wouldn't have given a shit. Either way, Batista is dead, and that's all that most of them wanted.

The latest crop of exiles could easily be told to shut the fuck up and get back to work.
 
Let's be honest here, Cuba matters very little to the rest of the world. It has nothing of much importance to sell anyone. Outside of tobacco it has little to sell and its military power is pretty limited. Outside a cause for various liberal/socialist groups Cuba doesn't matter to anyone outside of Cuba.
 
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