Cuba invades Dutch Caribbean possessions in 1965?

[David T]

Possible repercussions from the Soviets, especially with the cuban missile crisis fresh in everyone's mind?

The Soviet message to Fidel Castro in the Cuban Missile Crisis was emphatically not "Go ahead, Fidel, and invade wherever you want."

Your initial post assumed Fidel Castro was crazy. Now you are assuming that Brezhnev et al were crazy. Brezhnev and the Politburo in Moscow are going to start World War III, not even to defend Cuba but to prevent the US from protecting other countries from an unprovoked Cuban invasion?!

 

[Lalli]

Castro, would have had run this past the USSR. They would have said NO!!! Adding what ever Russian is for arsehole.{/QUOTE]

Soviets surely abandon Castro if ASB makes him such suicidal warmongering idiot.

Cuba is now in it's own, unless they could get some help from, China, Albania or maybe Yugoslavia, which will amount to very little or none at the end of the day.

I doubt that China is able to help Cuba. And would even Mao be crazy enough risk WW3? Yugoslavia is not going to help Cuba. Tito knows that it would be bad idea and he wanted keep good relationships with the West. And Yugoslavia hardly has much oc cabacity help Cuba anyway. And Albania is even lesser cabable to do anything. And Hoxha was more intrested to build bunker network.

The US might stay out of it, apart from some logistical help.

USA is not going stay out. Netherlands is NATO member so it would be idiotic stay out if Dutch govenrment ask that. And USA is very willingful destroy Castro. And this would be perfect moment do that and great excuse invade such criminal communist nation who is invading other nations.

 

[Driftless]

The Dutch were members of NATO, so the US, Britain, and maybe France would likely step in under the authority of that entity.

 

[Jim Balaya]

The Royal Navy and French Navy promptly deploy a pair of carrier groups to the Caribbean to wave their flags and deter any foreign ambitions against British and French territories.
This has the minor side-effect of distracting Cuban forces in the region while the Dutch Navy uses their fleet, aircraft carrier and the Korps Mariniers to recover their islands. The US Navy and USAF will no doubt help out in some way (photos, intelligence, electronic warfare, providing weapons and aircraft) but may not actually fire shots in case this drags the USSR into the shooting match. The diplomatic matter of not offending Dutch pride and fighting prowess is also to be considered.

The images of joint naval actions by NATO forces are a stern reminder to the Soviet Union of who and what they are up against. Cuba's actions may not technically trigger Article 5 but the repercussions are much the same.

Potential butterfly: The Royal Netherlands Navy decides to keep the Karel Doorman into the 1980s, gives her a full refit as helicopter landing ship and she doesn't get sold to Argentina.

Hell of an idea - imagine, Foch, Eagle and Doorman sailing side by side. We need to spin a larger TL out of this... "for the sake of aircraft carrier porn, a caribbean madman plays havoc with Dutch, French and British caribbean territories in the mid-60's". Is there a somewhat realistic POD for that ?

 

[DracoLazarus]

Hell of an idea - imagine, Foch, Eagle and Doorman sailing side by side. We need to spin a larger TL out of this... "for the sake of aircraft carrier porn, a caribbean madman plays havoc with Dutch, French and British caribbean territories in the mid-60's". Is there a somewhat realistic POD for that ?

An alliance with a still in power Jânio Quadros ? IIRC he had designs on Guyane.

 

[overoceans]

Hell of an idea - imagine, Foch, Eagle and Doorman sailing side by side. We need to spin a larger TL out of this... "for the sake of aircraft carrier porn, a caribbean madman plays havoc with Dutch, French and British caribbean territories in the mid-60's". Is there a somewhat realistic POD for that ?

possible realistic POD...

Communist rebel movements get going all over the Dutch Caribbean, and Castro gives them support, eventually including Cuban troops. Technically not an invasion, but probably the closest you're ever gonna get to one.

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

Another potential butterfly is that the UK sees the utility of having carriers in such situations and thus builds the CVA01

More of the smaller Islands may reject independence as well, knowing they can't protect themselves.

 

[Jim Balaya]

Spencersj345.346 said:
Another potential butterfly is that the UK sees the utility of having carriers in such situations and thus builds the CVA01

With a little luck, that butterflies Doorman fire of 1968 and/or provides some motivation for the Dutch to replace it with another carrier...

Yes, i had noted Jânio Quadros / Guyane 1961 brickmanship. A loooooooooong time ago on another forum I wrote an (atrocious but funny) TL where Brazil and France go to war over Kourou. This was related to the August 2003 explosion of the VLS rocket in Alcantara - I imagined Brazil going down the drain and eyeing an invasion of French Guyana to recoup the losses. Boy, was it fun. Since France had just sold Foch to Brazil (Sao Paulo), I ended with a Foch vs CdG naval battle. I added another layer of irony by having second-hand Hornets flying out of Sao Paolo. Don't forget, in 1989 when the Rafale was so late and the Crusaders falling apart, an effort was made to get 18 second hand Hornets for the Foch. Dassault screamed like hell, went to bed (symbollically !!!) with his good friend Mitterrand, and nothing happened, of course.
ITTL, Foch finally gets those second hand Hornets... as Brazil's Sao Poalo, 15 years later, the irony.

 

[Jono]

In short, it wouldn't end well for the Cubans

Another potential butterfly is that the UK sees the utility of having carriers in such situations and thus builds the CVA01

Steam power when everyone else (including the RN themselves) were going down the diesel and GT route? Yeah, sticking with the Invincible class seems like the better bet.

 

[Jim Balaya]

Yep. Better to get Eagle not running aground in 1970 and get Phantomization instead of cranky Ark Royal. Then gets another Centaur to Hermes level... add someInvincibles, and zap, a good carrier fleet until the end of Cold War...

 

[USS_Ward]

With a little luck, that butterflies Doorman fire of 1968 and/or provides some motivation for the Dutch to replace it with another carrier...

Yes, i had noted Jânio Quadros / Guyane 1961 brickmanship. A loooooooooong time ago on another forum I wrote an (atrocious but funny) TL where Brazil and France go to war over Kourou. This was related to the August 2003 explosion of the VLS rocket in Alcantara - I imagined Brazil going down the drain and eyeing an invasion of French Guyana to recoup the losses. Boy, was it fun. Since France had just sold Foch to Brazil (Sao Paulo), I ended with a Foch vs CdG naval battle. I added another layer of irony by having second-hand Hornets flying out of Sao Paolo. Don't forget, in 1989 when the Rafale was so late and the Crusaders falling apart, an effort was made to get 18 second hand Hornets for the Foch. Dassault screamed like hell, went to bed (symbollically !!!) with his good friend Mitterrand, and nothing happened, of course.
ITTL, Foch finally gets those second hand Hornets... as Brazil's Sao Poalo, 15 years later, the irony.

Not related to this question but i would love to read that timeline

 

[Spencersj345.346]

Steam power when everyone else (including the RN themselves) were going down the diesel and GT route? Yeah, sticking with the Invincible class seems like the better bet.

If you want a proper carrier prior to EMALS being a thing you need either nuclear or steam propulsion. Plus as it was in otl the RN didn't decommission its last steam powered ship until 2002 anyways.

 

[Jono]

If you want a proper carrier prior to EMALS being a thing you need either nuclear or steam propulsion. Plus as it was in otl the RN didn't decommission its last steam powered ship until 2002 anyways.

I'm saying that they should bide their time until the Invincible class, considering they were just 8 years around the corner. Possibly order 2 more.

 

[Spencersj345.346]

I'm saying that they should bide their time until the Invincible class, considering they were just 8 years around the corner. Possibly order 2 more.

You do realize the Invincibles had at best a quarter of the capabilities of the CVA01 right? And that's not including the fact that the Sea Harrier is a joke when compared to the Buccaner and Phantom and the lack of any AWACs at all

 

[Jim Balaya]

You do realize the Invincibles had at best a quarter of the capabilities of the CVA01 right? And that's not including the fact that the Sea Harrier is a joke when compared to the Buccaner and Phantom and the lack of any AWACs at all

Problem was the British economy was in tatters and shambles. From 1960 to John Nott 1981 eviscerating - GB was lucky to get three Invincibles and SHARs on the deck. There was not a single penny for anything bigger, faster, and shinier...

 

[Falecius]

Why THE FUCK would Cuba even remotely consider such a self-evidently idiotic action?

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

Why THE FUCK would Cuba even remotely consider such a self-evidently idiotic action?

The CIA laces Castro's cigars with L.S.D.

 

[Dan1988]

In this hypothetical situation Cuba somehow manages to invade (handwave any problems of Cuba even mounting such an attempt ) the Dutch Caribbean possessions (basically the remainder of whats left of the Dutch empire in the western hemisphere). Can the Netherlands successfully take them back? Im assuming that if the Dutch decide to take the islands back by force they will be building up a task force around the Karel Doorman. Im assuming the US will not be happy about this either.

Even with the handwavium and all that, I don't see the Cuban government doing something that idiotic - it's basically ASB. Even if the cigars were laced with LSD, it's still too soon to jeopardize the Revolution like that, especially if it means the US bringing back the hated Batista regime. (Which, if we follow down that route, bringing back the ancien régime alone would cause a massive insurgency effort by Cubans to flush the Batista regime and its successors back out, even if it turns into a typical Latin American dictatorship. Now, the US would have two problems on its hands - on one hand, Vietnam; on the other, Cuba (which would share some of the same characteristics). Eventually, the US will have to cut its losses on Cuba and accept it as a lost cause, much like with Vietnam, and maybe even leave Gitmo as well since the safety of that base would be under question.) There's too many factors going against the OP's scenario - furthermore, at this point, with the decolonization struggle at its height, even if Cuba does the impossible, I don't think the Netherlands would even care all that much.

 

[Dan1988]

Why THE FUCK would Cuba even remotely consider such a self-evidently idiotic action?

Exactly. I don't see Havana going that far, particularly as it already had enough problems on its hands.

 

[Admiral Bloonbeard]

You’re basically asking for a Cuban Sealion. The Cubans do not have the amphibious capacity to do so. The Dutch navy would have destroyed the Cuban invasion fleet.