CSA wins the peace

Sideways

Donor
Most the threads I've seen here make the assumption that if the CSA had won the war, it would have lost the peace. The reasoning is very sound, the south lagged behind in terms of industry, couldn't coordinate the federal government very well, and would have massive internal racial and class problems.

It seems to me that the assumption is that the CSA couldn't survive because it couldn't achieve parity with the US. What if it didn't have to? I remember reading that the CSA was, in terms of industry, on a par with the Austro-Hungarian Empire. It didn't have the same level of internal division, and it's in a much more secure position geographically if relations normalise with the US.

Could a neutral CSA that focuses mainly on internal affairs and maintaining security on its southern border survive the 20th century without revolution, collapse, or vassalship to the USA?
 
Greater US collapse would help, lets say a long war with a British blockade; New England gets tired of Washington and bails, followed by California and the other Pacifics. Anything else you can do to squeeze power out of Washingtons hands.
 
Depends how you define vassalship.

A CSA that imposes nothing on the USA is going to love its slave labor fairly quick due to escapes. I don't see any scenario where the USA keeps the Fugitive Slave Act.

At the very least, it will lose its productive slaves. What happens then depends on what the white working class is willing to fight for.

A communist CSA gets invaded, period.

The only way the CSA survives long-term is by rapid, Meiji-successful industrializing and an alliance with European and/or Mexican powers. That is very unlikely.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
I don't see any scenario where the USA keeps the Fugitive Slave Act.

This depends on who is in power in Washington. Urban immigrant communities, such as the Irish in New York City, heavily supported the Democratic Party and would have strongly opposed the influx of escaped slaves from the Confederacy as they would have been competitors for low-wage jobs. So the Democrats likely would have opposed the influx of escaped slaves, although exactly how it open to question.
 
Most the threads I've seen here make the assumption that if the CSA had won the war, it would have lost the peace. The reasoning is very sound, the south lagged behind in terms of industry, couldn't coordinate the federal government very well, and would have massive internal racial and class problems.

It seems to me that the assumption is that the CSA couldn't survive because it couldn't achieve parity with the US. What if it didn't have to? I remember reading that the CSA was, in terms of industry, on a par with the Austro-Hungarian Empire. It didn't have the same level of internal division, and it's in a much more secure position geographically if relations normalise with the US.

Could a neutral CSA that focuses mainly on internal affairs and maintaining security on its southern border survive the 20th century without revolution, collapse, or vassalship to the USA?

The internal divisions are worse than A-H, the Austrians never tried enslaving Southern Slavs for example. 1/3 of its population is going to be hostile to the system as long as slavery lasts.
 
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