*sorry for the typo in the title.
A while back I wrote
an analysis on the future of slavery in a victorious CSA. This time, I'm going to write my thoughts on the future of the CSA as an independent polity.
Keep In Mind
I'm assuming that the CSA gains independence with relatively little bloodshed. Let's say 1862.
ECONOMY
Ooh boy. I'll be blunt: the CSA economy is going to suuuuuuck. And not just because of a lack of industrialization. See, so much of the CSA's wealth, the
lion's share of that wealth, most of its GDP, is made up of slaves, cotton, and land. The problem with having most of your economy locked up in slaves, cotton, and land is that you will have a
crippling lack of liquidity, or capital. When the South was part of the Union it didn't matter since Northern business interests provided the South necessary capital. With that pipeline slowed (not stopped, as I'll explain later), capital is going to be that much harder to come by. Which means:
- No industrialization
- Low government treasury
- Difficulties in Creating a Business
- Very small banking system
Among a host of other bad things. Ask any economist, a lack of credit/capital is a killer. Absolute killer.
So the CSA economy is going to rely heavily on exports in order to obtain foreign currency, which will be used to important manufactured goods since they sure as hell won't be making anything. Can anyone say Third World Trap?
And just like a third world country, the CSA will be drowning in debt! It must gain capital to fund its imperial ventures and to, you know, exist. So expect the USA, British, and possibly French to invest (dominate) in the CSA economy, particularly in transportation infrastructure and the plantations.
IMPERIALISM
I know, it seems like every few days someone is saying that the CSA will conquer Mexico and Cuba. Pretty much everyone and their mom has said that it can't happen. I'm not here to argue for or against that point. What I'm here to do is say that the CSA will certainly try.
The thing with a slave economy such as the CSA had is that it must must must must
must keep expanding in order to exist as a slave economy. If it does not expand, the economy collapses.
See, imagine for a moment that the CSA does not expand. As slavery continues, the Deep South states (the newest territories of the CSA) will eventually become saturated with slaves. Once this happens, the price of slaves will continuously decline as the number of slaves naturally increases through positive birth rates. In other words, slavery would breed itself out of existence. The only way to stop that from happening is to conquer new territories that can absorb excess slaves and keep the prices high. That's why many anti-slavery politicians wanted to block the expansion of slavery; without expansion slavery will eventually collapse.
So the CSA absolutely needs to expand. Trouble is, where? Taking chunks out of the U.S is out. The Caribbean is an option, but a strong navy is needed and there is a very small chance the CSA can get the loans for that. Mexico is the most likely target, which will probably bring problems with France. I'm not going to say whether or not the CSA
can expand, but that it has to try.
FOREIGN RELATIONS
The funny thing is, the CSA will be absolutely dependent on the USA for capital and trade. So while there may be some tension at the border, the CSA needs the USA for its economy. Britain and France
are not going to war with the CSA to end slavery. Get it out of your mind.
Basically, the CSA FP is going to be conciliatory to the West (unless they try to force the slavery issue) and bully Mexico and the Caribbean. Up until the point where people become liberal enough to actually embargo the CSA over slavery.
DOMESTIC POLICIES
Slavery isn't going away until the price collapses or... nope, that's pretty much it. In the meantime, the CSA isn't going to promote industrialization or anything else. Landed gentry will rule, the poor whites will suffer and have no way out of their situation, and free blacks will flee north faster than something really fast. That's pretty much it. If you want a vision of their future, imagine Apartheid-era South Africa but a whole lot worse.
END GAME
If the CSA economy doesn't fold in on itself, it'll be embargoed to ruin some time in the mid 1900's.