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Suppose the CSA won by the North needlessly antagonizing Britain while in a Civil War. Usually it's a Trent incident because it needs to be something to piss on British honor while before the EP.

There were plenty of discussions about North-British relations post war, the longevity of slavery (some people here think it would be out by 1865... no), and the economy. I'm not here to talk about that.

Would this make succession by "sovereign states" legal? The constitution gave the states quasi-sovereign status, giving the South ammunition to argue amongst the plantar class that they were exercising a legal right, not treason. Further bolstering their argument is that the country was formed by states joining on a voluntary basis, so leaving sounds ok. Of course, the American Civil War was really about slavery, but that doesn't change the supposed premise.

I don't mean in the CSA (populated by TTL "fake Americans" who used to be real Americans). I mean in the Union North (...and west). Does the Federal government acknowledging the South leaving give enough precedent for any state in the future that wants to leave peacefully?

How about if the end of the civil war was a "ceasefire," and the Federal government promised a "non prosecution of people related tot he 1861 treason," returning of escape slaves to the south if the accused black can be proven in court to indeed be the escapee, and other concession which make the South de facto a new country, but the Federal government not de jure acknowledging the leaving of the South? As in the whole world and the North's population know the South is a new country spat out, but the Federal government is like "la la la, they are US territories in dispute. We haven't collected a dime in taxes, received a single electoral vote from them, had the US postal office operate there, did the census, or enforce a single law there for decades, but it's still ours." If you think that's dumb, that's how China views Taiwan, and no country that deals with China outright admits this anomaly in the presence of the Chinese ambassadors
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