CSA vs Second Mexican Empire

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: Before 1900' started by Reisen Storm, Mar 15, 2019.

  1. Reisen Storm Well-Known Member

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    In an alternate world, where the Confederate States of America won their independence from the USA, and the Second Mexican Empire triumphs over Benito Juarez, how would a war between these two nations play out? Given the expansionist nature of the south, this was bound to happen sooner or later.

    Your starting date can be any year in the 1880s and 1890s, but not beyond that. Bonus points for writing how the rest of the world reacts and taking sides in the conflict.
     
  2. The Tai-Pan The Pagemaster/Plogmonger

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    The big question is if the USA gets involved.
     
  3. Lord Hierarch Well-Known Member

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    Too busy invading Canada again.
     
  4. vortiger Well-Known Member

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    France even without Napolean III on the throne would probably still have a vested interest in Mexico and may very well get involved. if Britain felt that the USA was actually hostile and was planning to invade canada, i could imagine they would have close ties to the CSA as a counter to the USA. i doubt Britain would get into the war, but could very well put pressure on France not to actually intervene on Mexico's side.
     
  5. FillyofDelphi Banned

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    If its an invasion from the CSA into Mexico, than its no contest: the Mexicans can successfully repel them. Simply put, Dixie is going to be required to keep the majority of her military back home if she perceives the US as a potential threat (Which she inevitably will) who might jump in to support Mexico and retake some ground on the borders (for economic reasons, the US is going to be dead set on getting back the Mississippi down to New Orleans) as well as getting on better terms with France (Which, if she's ticked off at Britain, is a good thing to have given France has the fleet best able to check against the Brits and is currently in some high tension colonial rivalries since the return of the 3rd Republic assuming we haven't butterflied away events in Europe). Given that and the advantages of defensive warfare on their own terrain (to say nothing of the fact Dixie will be attacking out of South Texas at the end of a long, thin longistics line) I doubt they'll even able to break through the Mexican border states before the Imperial army concentrates and becomes the first demonstration of the power of modern artillery in a major war.
     
  6. Oxander Stepping Lightly

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    I now need you to put Bismark on hold and write this TL. Please?!
     
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  7. James Ricker Own your mistakes

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    Another big question does France get involved?
     
  8. FillyofDelphi Banned

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    If France makes it clear they will directly back Mexico there would be no war, full stop. Britain isent going to go to war for the sake of random Dixon expansionism, and no sane government in Richmond would risk such a lopsided conflict
     
  9. AnonymousSauce The 7 Deadly Butterflies of Shaolin

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    That's assuming Dixie isn't itself a French economic satellite, which it may very well be. I'd that's the case I could see them channeling Southron aggression towards the Spanish Caribbean, if Spain were to go Hohenzollern.
     
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  10. The Tai-Pan The Pagemaster/Plogmonger

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    Honestly, I think Yankee bankers and industrialists will end up owning much of the South in most TLs.
     
  11. FillyofDelphi Banned

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    I'm assuming events in Europe go roughly as IOTL, so the Sigmaringen Candidacy wasn't on my radar. However, if both Mexico and Dixie are in France's pocket we also have a situation where, in all likelihood, there's no war between them (the context of the thread) as Paris will force them to play nice. Alternatively, if Dixie is hard in the French sphere well Mexico slipped out, you have to factor in that means they displaced the British influence, which only agrivates colonial rivalries and likely means the UK is courting the US, so will be willing to act as a deterrent to French adventurism in support of the South and give nudges to the US to rattle its sabers. Now it's Paris who's being asked to make a giant gamble for the sake of a random land grab they don't even directly get control of.
     
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  12. Reisen Storm Well-Known Member

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    You really think them Plantation owners will allow the south do undergo industrialization?
     
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  13. The Tai-Pan The Pagemaster/Plogmonger

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    Someone is going to be buying the raw materials. Cotton, lumber, indigo, beef, even coal and iron. The most natural market is in the USA. It is the closest, largest, one of the best financed, has deep commercial ties, and similar laws and customs (slavery aside).
     
  14. Reisen Storm Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]
    I see you have to much faith in those Dixies boys
     
  15. David T Well-Known Member

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    The British do not want either the CSA or the USA to expand in Latin America. (The idea that "they'll back the Confederates because the Yankees will be making war on the UK to get Canada" is based on a very unlikely assumption--that the Yankees will in fact be doing any such thing. For some reason, the assumption that the US will be hot for a war of revenge against either the CSA or the UK seems widespread here, probably because peace is just too boring for allohistorians…)
     
  16. Reisen Storm Well-Known Member

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    Across the course of human history, great conflicts have been fought and promise to be the war to end all wars, and yet every victory has only brought Humiliation, hardship, and bitter resentment to the defeated. So it's only natural the U.S.A seeks revenge for its defeat and Humiliation.
     
  17. Kerney defender of low probability atls everywhere

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    If the CSA is facing a hostile USA the war doesn't happen. Some people assume the US will continue to hate the CSA because they lost. But peaceful relations, meaning allowing the US navigation rights on the Missisippi because it is bigger than you in exchange for tax revenue is 'national survival 101' for the South as is decent relations with the North in general (or being armed to the teeth, which precludes a Mexican invasion). So assuming a northern border similar to Canada probably a prerequeset. Maybe they buy US support by offering them Baja or limiting their war goals or has a passible cassus belli. Maybe the CSA simply buys war materiel from US factories.

    By the 1880's there is undoubtedly a rail line all the way to El Paso and other border areas, so the logistics is decent.

    The CSA probably has maintained a "West Point" meaning a trained officer corps while if otl is anything to go by, Mexico has ineffective aristocrats in officer slots.

    What Mexico potentially has is the ability to fight a guerilla war, but the Empire needs the very people who supported Juarez to now support the Imperial government, so this is a "maybe". They may or may not have France. Seeing as Napoleon the 3rd likely looses his throne in 1870, so support may be.....lacking. In fact, owing the CSA money might be a good justification for said war. It was good enough for France after all.

    So, the CSA take Chiuahana and Sonora pretty easily and then forces a peace down the Imperial Government's throat. This is followed possibly by a long guerilla war that could go either way.

    It doesn't carve up Mexico lest it tick off the USA or England.

    Mexico remembers.

    When it's a big enough defeat. As Shelby Foote pointed out, if the South had won, life in the North could have gone on unchanged, rather like Britian after the Revolutionary war. But there is no hardship. There is some resentment but cooler heads say "do we want to fight stupid wars every 20-30 years like Europe?"

    The idea that the USA and CSA will default to eternal emnity for no reason (and you can find a reason) is bluntly the single stupidist common trope on these boards and is built on "we really don't like the CSA so naturally everyone will hate them atl as much as we do, just because."

    Assuming a victorious CSA's leadership won't industialize, and will not limit its foreign policy ambitions, regardless of what a few "Golden Circle" types dreamed of not very bright either.
     
    Last edited: Mar 16, 2019
  18. James Ricker Own your mistakes

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    The key word is "Sane" if the Confederate economy is crashing and everything is starting to Fall to pieces and the fire-eaters managed to get in charge. You can just throw sanity out the window.
     
  19. FillyofDelphi Banned

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    Pie in the sky dream of a narrow band of society in glorified social club that never had to confront the real hurdles of turning it into concrete policy is not the same as actually having the South go to war.

    Then they can't organize an industrial scale invasion with any hope of success, and they crash and burn even faster and harder than the alternative scenarios. This isent a period where you can just get a bunch of milita was muskets and charge them into a desert and expect good results.
     
  20. Lascaris Well-Known Member

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    Jun 16, 2005
    Constantly on the brink of war with CSA seems reasonable. Canada is a different question. Unless there was open war with Britain during the ACW it seems unlikely, although relations are likely to be somewhat strained at least. As mentioned in the past, the Union as part of the Entente between France and Russia looks likely.
     
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