CSA Victory: Revolution?

I was just in one of the CSA victory threads and someone posted about how if the CSA won, they would become unstable quickly and fall prey to revolution.

Finally!!! Someone else who thinks that the CSA would not be anything like today's south. I agree that the CSA is bound for a revolution at some point. Whether this is a left/socialist one or a populist right-wing one doesn't matter, things are not staying like they were. Also OTLs southern racism was mostly a product of Tue south loosing the war.

If this were true, and lets say for this timeline that Lincoln and the Union signed a peace treaty with the CSA, how long would it take for an active/successful revolutionary movement to occur?

Depending on how long it would take (I don't know if forty years is asking too much?), what if, after the Bolshevik Revolution, Trotsky escapes to North America, more specifically the CSA, and sparks the new communist movement in the south.

Dunno if that last bit was too ASB, but still it'd be pretty cool to see how epic that revolution could turn out to be.
 
I think we can safely call the RR (and Trotsky's OTL career, for that matter) a casualty of the massive butterflies coming from this.

That said, it depends on what kind of revolution you want -- secession from the CSA could come quickly enough, unionists sections of states could cause problems, and a Haitian style mass uprising could happen in certain areas relatively soon -- but a full scale national revolution? That's trickier.

I'd say, first, see slavery abolished or transformed into something very different -- maybe mass public slaves, or something.
 
IOTL there was a lot of tension between the planter class, and poor whites. It isn't ASB at all, to assume that would explode into conflict in an independent South.
 
The Confederacy sits on a shaky foundation.

For starters the confederate constitution creates an extremely weak centralized government and more or less enshrines the practice of slavery. This means that the confederacy is hitching its economic future to slave based cash crop exports, while hampering industrialization in the form of tariffs, state subsidies, and state infrastructure at a crucial junction of economic history. Commodities fluctuate in prices rapidly, and the issue of slavery forces the Confederacy into a severe disadvantage in future trade agreements. While cotton may be king in the short term, its price will eventually crash with nothing to take its place. Whats more industrial development in the south will be handicapped due to the interests of the Confederacy's elites, as well as its needed foreign patrons (Britain and France)

Therefore, when the bottom drops out from the cotton boom, the south will be in dire straits. Slaves will immediately lose most of their value, the middling farmers will be wiped out, and there will be few industrial jobs to support the newly unemployed. Slaves will compere with poor whites for work, which innately be a major source of political and social tension. This becomes drastically worse in a time of recession. Meanwhile, the south, being a slave state is unlikely to receive much immigration (why would anyone immigrate to an area where they are competing with unpaid labor) while procreation, is an essential means to increase the slave based assets of the elites ie the black population will steadily be rising. As the black population rises, this brings about the constant threat of a slave rebellion, after all no one wants to spend their life a slave/second class citizen.

Therefore, the south would most likely face major problems with both black, and poor white social unrest. Given the weakness of the confederate government this wouldn't bode well for its stability.
 
I think we can safely call the RR (and Trotsky's OTL career, for that matter) a casualty of the massive butterflies coming from this.

Does it have to? :rolleyes: I was hoping for Trotsky to use his superior public speaking skills to rouse the south in a Red Rebellion and create a communist state on American mainland. Hilarity ensues! :D

That said, it depends on what kind of revolution you want -- secession from the CSA could come quickly enough, unionists sections of states could cause problems, and a Haitian style mass uprising could happen in certain areas relatively soon -- but a full scale national revolution? That's trickier.

I'd say, first, see slavery abolished or transformed into something very different -- maybe mass public slaves, or something.

Any plausible revolution that reaches full-scale, country-wide conflict. Hopefully from the CSA victory in the ACW, the south sees itself in a new image separate of that from the Union.
 
I kind of like this idea from turtledoves, great war series. Maybe once Trotsky gets here he gains alot of support from the poor whites and slaves. Once the Confederate economy falls apart at the seams then the states with a black majority will rise up and consume the whole country. I expect either communism done right or massive purges of the rich whites.
 
IOTL there was a lot of tension between the planter class, and poor whites. It isn't ASB at all, to assume that would explode into conflict in an independent South.
Indeed; the only thing that really defused that conflict in OTL was that the Southern establishment kept using racial politics to keep poor whites on their side. Such tactics are not nearly as likely to be effective in an independent CSA; even if abolition happens on a reasonably optimistic timescale, the ex-slaves would still be very firmly trodden into the ground. If poor whites do not see ex-slaves as a threat to their position, race politics are not going to work.
 
Indeed; the only thing that really defused that conflict in OTL was that the Southern establishment kept using racial politics to keep poor whites on their side. Such tactics are not nearly as likely to be effective in an independent CSA; even if abolition happens on a reasonably optimistic timescale, the ex-slaves would still be very firmly trodden into the ground. If poor whites do not see ex-slaves as a threat to their position, race politics are not going to work.


So with Trotsky "prodding the bull" and riling up the poor whites and free blacks with non-racial, communist speeches and teachings, he could counter the racial politics of the CSA, making it pretty much done for. Unite the poor and crush the wealthy.
 
Personally I could see a possible slave-revolt, though IOTL those never kicked off to be much so even that's doubtful. I think for a time there might be an aristocratic tint to the Confederacy, though in the late 1800's/early 1900's we'd see this stop with possible socialist parties coming through (much like the Labour party). I personally can't see the Confederacy having anymore of a Revolution than Britain did when it came to the masses, aristocracy etc.
 

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Personally I could see a possible slave-revolt, though IOTL those never kicked off to be much so even that's doubtful. I think for a time there might be an aristocratic tint to the Confederacy, though in the late 1800's/early 1900's we'd see this stop with possible socialist parties coming through (much like the Labour party). I personally can't see the Confederacy having anymore of a Revolution than Britain did when it came to the masses, aristocracy etc.

*cough* The chartist riots; the CSA is basically Britain that says no to the reform act of 1832, no to the great reform of 1867, and "piss off" to the Chartist movement; there would have been (more) blood if the upper class hadn't seen its time was about up.
 
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