CSA Today?

Finally, in addition to international pressure (which would occur, but probably not in the way some envisage), we have to take into account how hard it would have been for the CSA to abolish slavery.

Article 1, Section 9 (4) of the CS Constitution states "No bill of attainder, ex post facto law, or law denying or impairing the right of property in negro slaves shall be passed."

and shall have the right of transit and sojourn in any State of this Confederacy, with their slaves and other property; and the right of property in said slaves shall not be thereby impaired".

The also added something similar to Section 2 (3) of Article IV (changes in red): No slave or other person held to service or labor in any State or Territory of the Confederate States, under the laws thereof, escaping or lawfully carried into another, shall, in consequence of any law or regulation therein, be discharged from such service or labor; but shall be delivered up on claim of the party to whom such slave belongs, or to whom such service or labor may be due.

So even if Virginia did make all of it's slaves free, anyone from Alabama who had a slave could go to Virginia with said slave and the slave would still be a slave.

It is because of all of this that the CSA is very unlikely to stay in one piece. It would likely face a civil war / revolution within two generations.

The moment one state abandons slavery all hell would break loose. Same thing goes for the moment Texas discovers its oil deposits (and particularly true if the Indian Territory and the Arziona Strip are also part of the US.
 
One thing we should think about for Arizona: If tensions really were high over it, could we see the US selling the Gadsden Territory back to the CS as a sort of compensation to get them to shut up? Especially considering that that part of the state seceded in the first place...

Also, I don't think it likely that Spain would hold onto Cuba for much longer than it did in OTL, even without the US meddling around. There had already been 2 major wars of independence (the second occuring before and during the Span-Am War); the Confederates would most likely want the Spanish out, and would be running guns and whatnot to the rebels. There might be even some sponsored filibuster actions, especially if the US has acquired the Dominican Republic. This would all lead to war, though obviously not on such a grand scale as OTL's war. It would be fairly localized, with most action occuring in the waters off of Florida and Cuba; there would likely be an attempted Spanish incursion into Florida, and posisbly Confederate operations into Cuba, many of which might be succesful; however, with hundreds of thousands of Spanish forces in the area, I would not see their chance of success likely, especially considering that they would msot likely lack the strong logisitical support that the US had. The campaign in Cuba would bog down; the Confederates and Spaniards would be much more evenly matched. Within about two-three years, peace would be signed, but whether or not Cuba would be independent depends on a variety of factors, all dependent on what the state of the Confederate military was in at the time.
 
One thing we should think about for Arizona: If tensions really were high over it, could we see the US selling the Gadsden Territory back to the CS as a sort of compensation to get them to shut up? Especially considering that that part of the state seceded in the first place...

I'd like to note that if that happens, the Tucson Toros baseball team will probably have to move to Phoenix. ;)
 
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