CSA Today: Updated

Matthew White, of History of 20th Century Atlas fame, wrote this CSA Today satirical graph to show how modern politics could be altered in a very ASB timeline.

In 2004, I asked if he would update it, and he said that he tried, but today's politics are "too depressing."

So I'm wondering, sometime between now and 2009, would anyone like to try to continue his short timeline past the 2000 election, and into 2004 and 2008? I don't think it's too hard, just take into account the major candidates, try to make something up to excuse the U.S.-C.S. divide. Also, following his method seems to be solid:

Matthew White was one of the first guys who ever gave me a serious introduction to AH. :D
 
Always loved White's CSA Today website. I still check in over there every now and then. This thread makes me want to try my hand at this, though I doubt I could top Fleetlord's submissions.
 
In The USA-

It's election time in the good ole US of A. President Gephardt, since he served all four years of President Tsongas' second term, is eligible to run for one more four year term in office. Despite a slowing economy, the president is renominated by the Democratic Party. He chooses former basketball star and former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley as his running mate.

Republicans, on the other hand, are looking to end the 8 years of Democratic dominance in the Executive Branch. They nominate JEB Bush, Connecticut governor and son of former President Bush, for president. For vice president, Bush chooses a former member of his father's cabinet, and a certified member of the GOP's "Old Guard," Jack Kemp of New York.

The election is very, very close. In the end, Bush wins a razor thin victory. Some of the crueler political commentators have pointed out that Gephardt couldn't even win his home state. If he had, he would have been reelected to the presidency.

The Bush years start off quietly enough. Concern rises over the fact that the economy is slowing down. However, people soon forget about the economy when Islamic terrorists launch a mortar attack on the US Capitol Building when President Bush is giving his 2002 State of the Union Address. In all, 74 people are killed, and nearly 200 are injured. Within a month of the attack, America invades Afghanistan in an effort to stamp out the terrorists center of power.

After surviving the attack President Bush and Vice President Kemp have approval ratings in the low 90's. However, as the economy continues to struggle and the war in Afghanistan bogs down, their popularity began to wane.

Another situation arises that becomes an embarrassment for the administration. The president's older brother, Baseball Commissioner George W Bush, sends MLB league office officials to invade the locker room of the St. Louis Cardinals in May 2003. The commissioner had a "gut-feeling" based on weak evidence that the members of that team were using and stockpiling steroids. Commissioner Bush, with a smirk, called the drugs "Weapons of Mass Muscle Gain." Yet despite the League's best efforts they are unable to find any banned substances in the Cardinals' facilities. Though the administration isn't directly linked to what is going on in baseball, the "W Situation" becomes a distraction that the administration doesn't need. George W Bush would eventually resign as baseball commissioner in 2005.

As 2004 gets underway, Republicans fear that the Bush/Kemp ticket could be in trouble. The fight for the Democratic nomination comes down to a fight between two New England men, Howard Dean and John Kerry. In the end, the more passionate (and more liberal) Dean edges out Kerry (who many people consider "dull" and "snobby"). Governor Dean chooses Indiana Senator Evan Bayh as his running mate.

Despite the ongoing war in Afghanistan, Bush could point to several major military victories against the terrorists. Furthermore, the economy had begun to grow (albeit anemically) in 2003 and 2004. Throughout the campaign, President Bush's approval rating hovered between 50 and 55 percent. It looked like it would be another close election. In the end, Bush won by a slightly larger margin than he did in 2000. As 2005 approached, Americans waited to see if the second term of the second President Bush would be better than the first.


Like I said in an earlier post, I thought I'd try my hand at writing something for this thread. I'll post something for the CSA either tonight or early tomorrow. Then we'll move on to 2008 and 20012.
 
In The CSA:

According to the CS Constitution, presidents are eligible for one 6 year term in office. Vice President Helms inherited the presidency in 1999 after President Gingrich was impeached for adultery. Because he was never elected to the presidency, Helms and his attorneys argued that he was eligible to run for a full 6 year term in 1999. The CS Supreme Court disagreed.

As a result of Helms being declared ineligible to run, the American Party needed a new standard bearer. They chose former George Wallace speechwriter and political columnist Pat Buchanan. When the American Party met at its nominating convention in Birmingham Buchanan declared that liberals were waging a cultural war on “Confederate Values.” He chose former Tennessee governor Lamar Alexander as his running mate.

The Democrats nominated former Georgia governor Zell Miller for president and Senator “Fritz” Hollings for vice president. Many of the Democrats wondered why the hell they were nominating Miller. The former protégé of Jimmy Carter had moved further and further to the right over the years. However, they decided that anyone was better that Buchanan. That November, the voters demonstrated that they felt the same way. Miller and Hollings were overwhelmingly elected.

President Miller turned out to be a decent president in many ways. His administration made education more affordable for both poor whites and blacks in the CSA. He also signed a sweeping campaign finance reform bill into law. However, under his watch the country shifted far to the right on immigration.

For years, thousands of Mexicans crossed the Tex-Mex border illegally. The vast majority of them were in the CSA to work hard and build a better life for their families. However, others turned to crime to make their living. It was the latter group that most of Confederate society focused on. They saw illegals as the cause of high crime rates in CS cities. They blamed illegals for the sluggish economy and the lack of affordable health care. President Miller and Congress responded by passing draconian immigration reform.

Under the new immigration laws, business owners could find themselves in jail if they hired (knowingly or unknowingly) an illegal immigrant. It was now legal for Hispanics to be pulled over by the police, and they were forced to prove that they were either a Confederate citizen, or a legal immigrant. Families were rounded up and deported by the CIS (Confederate Immigration Service). Most importantly, a 10 foot high fence was built along the CS-Mexican border. Thankfully, the media kindly ignored the fact that a good majority of the people hired to build the fence were illegals.

Fritz Hollings turned 83 on January 1, 2005. Rather that run for president, he decided to retire from politics. Instead, the Democrats chose freshman Senator John Edwards to be their standard bearer in the presidential election. Edwards was the most liberal candidate to win the Democratic nomination since Jesse Jackson in 1988. Edwards raised many eyebrows when he chose Louisiana Senator Mary Landrieu as his running mate.

The American Party nominated Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee for president and Texas Governor Rick Perry for vice president. Despite the fact that there was a woman on the ticket, it looked like the Democrats may win the first back to back elections since 1964. Then the sky fell.

Hurricane Katrina slammed into New Orleans on August 28, 2005. The city flooded and many, who either refused the numerous warnings to evacuate or could not evacuate, were either killed or trapped on the rooves of their homes. Both state and Federal government were slow to respond to the disaster. As a result, people trapped in the city were forced to scrounge through flooded grocery and department stores for food and drinking water. People watching coverage of the aftermath at home started complaining about “Those damn blacks lootin’ the city,” and demanded that the National Guard be sent in. After almost three weeks, and a declaration of martial law, the city was brought under control.

People were looking for someone to blame. Most of the blame was laid on the front steps of the Grey House (the official home of the CS president). The American Party took the opportunity to repeatedly slam the Democrats for their mishandling of the situation. Despite not being connected with the situation, the Edwards/Landrieu ticket saw their electoral hopes vanish overnight. On Election Day, the Huckabee/Perry ticket won every single state. It was an electoral shutout.

President Huckabee vowed to bring Christian Values back to Richmond. The former Baptist preacher took to the radio airwaves every morning at 6am to read a psalm to the Confederate citizens. Abortion had been outlawed in the Confederacy for decades. However, the Huckabee Administration made the practice illegal even for women who were the victims of rape or incest. It was mandated that Creationism, and ONLY Creationism was to be taught in the classroom. The Confederate Poverty Law Center (now headed by the man to precede Huckabee in the Arkansas governor’s mansion, Bill Clinton) tried to fight the Creationism mandate, but the fight died before it began.

There were some good aspects of the Huckabee Administration. Middle class Confederates saw their taxes lowered. Jobs were created, and the sluggish economy slowly started to gain a head of steam.

As 2011 neared, the American Party looked to be in pretty good shape for the upcoming presidential election.
 
Excellent segment, Fleetlord! Really happy that you're carrying the torch where M. White left off. Hilarious as usual, though unfortunate that both nations are slowly turning into one-party states.

Admirable work, Underboss_3 - your twist is interesting, it doesn't parallel history quite as much, but it's an interesting twist. Having Bush raid the Cardinals is pretty funny. Good bringing up Zell Miller, he's one high-profile Southern Democrat of the last decade who hasn't been previously mentioned.
 
A few nitpicks from an otherwise wonderful post

1. How does Gingrich end up in Georgia? Do Yankees move South for more opportunity or for political reasons? IRL he ended up in Georgia because he was a military brat. Wouldn't he more likely end up in California, or have the CSA and USA reconciled to the point that the US has military bases in the CSA.

2. How is Oak Ridge a thing and how the heck would the South get nuclear weapons? Even if they weren't on the side of the Germans or were neutral, would they still get nuclear weapons?

3. Would Catholics be treated with suspicion like in the US? I think Gingrich is Catholic and I know Pat Buchanan is. Sure Pat could maybe make a go of it as could Gingrich but might some in the south call them out as papist slaves?

4. As for the Union, how do they still get Alaska? I'd figure they'd rather spend the money on protecting their new border.

5. Unless the 2nd world war (if that even happens) affects things, wouldn't George Bush just move to Texas to take advantage of the business climate in Texas? Granted a bunch of Yankees would never be president of the CSA but stranger things have happened.

6. Why would the Capitol stay in DC? I don't think it would really make sense to keep it there. At least Richmond is surrounded by the confederacy. Washington would be an easy target. Would they move it to Philadelphia or New York or maybe even Chicago or St. Louis?

I know these are probably stupid nitpicks. I also have some unanswered questions

1. Do Yankees move South to take advantage of a better climate and better business opportunities? I'm guessing the CSA is going to be a place full of low taxes, a cheap workforce and with a good climate, they can encourage lots of Yanks to at least summer down in Dixie.

2. Is slavery still a thing in 1965, or are blacks just noncitizens? Also, would the South encourage them to move north, or would they keep them down south for cheap labor? I feel like this could be a political divide, with some arguing for a white ethnostate, while some might argue for blacks to stay in the CSA as they would for sure be the backbone of the agricultural economy. Also, might some northerners see blacks the way many see hispanics today, a cheap source of labor but also a source of crime?

3. What's the culture like? I'm guessing the South's national sport would be football, but would football even reach there if they are separated from the US? Or might they adopt Rugby like the British and French? I'm guessing baseball is still popular too?

4. How would a film industry develop? Sure they would have their own pioneers, but I feel like their film making would be something like the Canadian film industry, where basically it doesn't really exist.
 
A few nitpicks from an otherwise wonderful post

Quite bluntly the whole exercise was a '90s thought experiment, nay basically a political cartoon, commenting about how so many southerners at the time were getting into political power, or something. I think doing things like picking Oak Ridge as their Los Alamos is a real TL-191 type move of having a low butterfly zone where you can just pick existing things in our history but put it on another side, which isn't plausible so much as it can be fun, if done well.

1. Do Yankees move South to take advantage of a better climate and better business opportunities? I'm guessing the CSA is going to be a place full of low taxes, a cheap workforce and with a good climate, they can encourage lots of Yanks to at least summer down in Dixie.

Yeah, even according to Matthew White's original piece, "President Gephardt wanting to close the US border to the cheap labor of Dixie", though that might also be an allusion to Confederate illegal immigrants. I think it really depends if the two nations have had warmed up relations that would allow for cross-border trade, but I think where the original piece left off- and continued by both @Fleetlord and by @Underboss_3- there's a fair amount of animosity remaining between North and South to prevent that. Which I think is fine, because it unfortunately reflects OTL America's current internal issues, though our real world issues aren't divided between regions so much as more urban vs. rural.

Also, this is where the "parallel construction" of the whole experiment kind of falls apart. In the OP, Gingrich/Helms handily trounced Clinton/Gore, so is NAFTA dead? Or do they pass it, since the American Party would likely be pro-business? Or is NAFTA unlikely given continuously simmering North-South antipathy? Though, Fleetlord has POTUS Huckabee withdrawing from the pact, meaning it was passed sometime in the previous decade, which is fine. Also I see he also has Rodham unmarried to Clinton, which means she'll be the frontrunner in 2016, good to know. (I think Fleetlord follows Matthew White's original scheme more faithfully, but I would love to see a continuation along Underboss_3's version as well, since it's also very well written and takes some nice creative liberties. )

2. Is slavery still a thing in 1965, or are blacks just noncitizens? Also, would the South encourage them to move north, or would they keep them down south for cheap labor? I feel like this could be a political divide, with some arguing for a white ethnostate, while some might argue for blacks to stay in the CSA as they would for sure be the backbone of the agricultural economy. Also, might some northerners see blacks the way many see hispanics today, a cheap source of labor but also a source of crime?

As per the original article, slavery was abolished in 1913. As far as the fate of black people, I think the parallelism will hew closely to OTL, meaning they are mistreated and live under systemic inequality bereft of reparations. So basically OTL, except slightly worse and more blatant mistreatment. The original work was a '90s satire, not a dystopia, so I'm not imagining anything too dramatic or Turtledove-shaped. Because, well, modern day America can already be pretty bad.

One can argue that since the legacy of the antebellum South lived on in OTL through sharecropping, Jim Crow, redlining, etc., the CSA Today version of a modern Confederacy wouldn't look all that different from parts of the modern South. Unfortunately, some of the things you're describing aren't too much of a stretch when it comes to poorer black people- the working class is exploited as cheap labor by white business interests and encouraged to leave to the north by the white suburban middle class. They would be de jure citizens but de facto second-class citizens, mirroring OTL issues like overpolicing, voter ID mandates, worse healthcare.

3. What's the culture like? I'm guessing the South's national sport would be football, but would football even reach there if they are separated from the US? Or might they adopt Rugby like the British and French? I'm guessing baseball is still popular too?

4. How would a film industry develop? Sure they would have their own pioneers, but I feel like their film making would be something like the Canadian film industry, where basically it doesn't really exist.

Again, I'm being boring and treating CSA Today as a reskinned version of OTL for the purposes of satire. But I think even if you just take OTL elements, there's still fun with it. The CSA's SEC would probably have a rivalry with the USA's Big 10 as far as college football goes; they wouldn't actually play each other (well, maybe during the years when there's a detente across the Mason-Dixon), but there'd be a big ratings rivalry, also reflected between ESPN in Connecticut and Turner Sports in Georgia. Speaking of the latter, the '00s and '10s will be all about the rise of Hotlanta as the new Hollywood, which has attracted much of the latter's film productions thanks to lower taxes and looser union regulations.
 
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