The problem with the CSA winning is that it is militarily impossible. There has to be a negotiated peace.
Let's say that McClellan wins the election and there is an armistice with the sides occupying the ground they hold pending a peace treaty. The Union and Confederacy agree on release of prisoners and population exchange for the white and free population.
It becomes difficult for the war to start up again because the soldiers refuse to fight in such numbers that it is impracticable to make them. They just see no further reason to fight and are willing for anyone that wants to fight to just take their place and show up for the next battle. Otherwise, if you don't like your neighbors you can sell your house and move to the other side.
But the Union occupied area of the former Confederacy is so large that there is no room in it for slave owners or slaves because of all the refugee antislavery white people fleeing Confederate conscription. Meanwhile there is no room for the black people in the Confederacy because of all the former slave owners being chased out of the Union occupied territory in Louisiana, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, Virginia, Maryland, Arkansas, etc.
So the Union just buys Texas as a settlement area for the slaves that have been displaced by the refugees from the Confederacy. Added to the Union occupied territory of Louisiana, there is a large black republic in what was Texas. The landowners of Texas are simply bought out at a fair price, or allowed to hold on to their land if they want.
It will be expensive to compensate more than a hundred thousand white people in Texas but it's far cheaper than continuing the war for another year and it is acceptable to the Union. The Confederacy is also under pressure from the British because they see a chance to get all those loans paid off. No peace treaty means no blockade runners!
So we wind up with a North, a South, a Texas, a Utah, a West Coast, a Canada, and maybe an Alaska that is not American because the USA doesn't have the postwar government subsidizing the railroad and the purchase of Alaska. No Union Pacific and Central Pacific also means that Utah stays cut off from regular traffic with the rest of the USA for another generation.
What happens when the North has the 'stab in the back' legend to mull over for a generation?
Would the abolitionists of the Union army be able to force the war to continue until the slaves were legally as well as practically emancipated? They still have to sneak more than a hundred miles away to be free when they reach Union territory. More if they are in Florida.
Would the southerners who have lost their electoral majorities in the freed states of Kentucky, Louisiana, Tennessee, Missouri, Arkansas, and eventually Texas be able to keep the war going? As the freed states get more like the north in terms of democracy and public education, they will pull more and more southerners out of the south to take advantage of the different societies. This leaves only a third of the south in the south and makes them weaker in terms of population.
Let's say that McClellan wins the election and there is an armistice with the sides occupying the ground they hold pending a peace treaty. The Union and Confederacy agree on release of prisoners and population exchange for the white and free population.
It becomes difficult for the war to start up again because the soldiers refuse to fight in such numbers that it is impracticable to make them. They just see no further reason to fight and are willing for anyone that wants to fight to just take their place and show up for the next battle. Otherwise, if you don't like your neighbors you can sell your house and move to the other side.
But the Union occupied area of the former Confederacy is so large that there is no room in it for slave owners or slaves because of all the refugee antislavery white people fleeing Confederate conscription. Meanwhile there is no room for the black people in the Confederacy because of all the former slave owners being chased out of the Union occupied territory in Louisiana, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, Virginia, Maryland, Arkansas, etc.
So the Union just buys Texas as a settlement area for the slaves that have been displaced by the refugees from the Confederacy. Added to the Union occupied territory of Louisiana, there is a large black republic in what was Texas. The landowners of Texas are simply bought out at a fair price, or allowed to hold on to their land if they want.
It will be expensive to compensate more than a hundred thousand white people in Texas but it's far cheaper than continuing the war for another year and it is acceptable to the Union. The Confederacy is also under pressure from the British because they see a chance to get all those loans paid off. No peace treaty means no blockade runners!
So we wind up with a North, a South, a Texas, a Utah, a West Coast, a Canada, and maybe an Alaska that is not American because the USA doesn't have the postwar government subsidizing the railroad and the purchase of Alaska. No Union Pacific and Central Pacific also means that Utah stays cut off from regular traffic with the rest of the USA for another generation.
What happens when the North has the 'stab in the back' legend to mull over for a generation?
Would the abolitionists of the Union army be able to force the war to continue until the slaves were legally as well as practically emancipated? They still have to sneak more than a hundred miles away to be free when they reach Union territory. More if they are in Florida.
Would the southerners who have lost their electoral majorities in the freed states of Kentucky, Louisiana, Tennessee, Missouri, Arkansas, and eventually Texas be able to keep the war going? As the freed states get more like the north in terms of democracy and public education, they will pull more and more southerners out of the south to take advantage of the different societies. This leaves only a third of the south in the south and makes them weaker in terms of population.
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