alternatehistory.com

It seems to be taken as a given in most ATLs that if some part of the slaves states secede by 1856 they will certainly succeed and if they secede after 1864 they will certainly fail.

A) Do you agree with this, at least during the 19th century?
B) Presuming no change in the Slave states (other than maybe Delaware), does this turn around once the Texas oil is found and a significant amount of the US war machine is fueled by it?
C) Would the addition of a Slave Holding Cuba (and possibly other Slave territories in the Caribbean) to the US significantly tip the balance?
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