Crushing Napoleonic Victory at Bautzen

In OTL Napoleon had his best chance for a decisive victory over the allies in 1813 at Bautzen.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Bautzen

So WI Napoleon succeeds in crushing the allies? Does he then revert to his grand strategy, advance on Berlin and then onto Danzig and the Vistula? What does Austria do? Does Austria jump in too save the allies, or are they sufficiently cowed? Does Russia sue for peace or fight on? Does the Tsar end up Napoleon's prisoner? What about the peninsula?
 
In OTL Napoleon had his best chance for a decisive victory over the allies in 1813 at Bautzen.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Bautzen

So WI Napoleon succeeds in crushing the allies? Does he then revert to his grand strategy, advance on Berlin and then onto Danzig and the Vistula? What does Austria do? Does Austria jump in too save the allies, or are they sufficiently cowed? Does Russia sue for peace or fight on? Does the Tsar end up Napoleon's prisoner? What about the peninsula?

how bad is it? is there any thing left of the Russian/Prussian armies? if no then Napoleon marches on into Berlin and personally grinds Frederick William III's face into the dirt, if the Tsar isn't Napoleon's prisoner Austria and Russia fight on, if he is..... hard to say what Napoleon would do with him, but likely force peace, he may force Alexander I to step down in favor of his brother Grand Duke Constantine, if Russia gives up Austria will roll over, peninsula won't change much it'll still bleed France
 
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Well Austria is neutral at this point, had the battle proceeded as Napoleon envisaged(which it nearly did)at would have seen the allies routed and forced back onto the neutral Austrian frontier where they would either have to fight or capitulate, odds are if they fight they are annihilated. If they retreat into Austria they are effectively commiting an act of war against the Hapsburg empire.
 
So WI we have Napoleon's dream scenario unfold, Alexander is Napoleon's prisoner, Austria cowed. Napoleon forces Prussia to submit, then relieves his garrisons along the Vistula. What next?

Who was running Russia while the Tsar was campaigning against Napoleon? Is the Tsar deposed?
 
The question lurking in my mind is the Penninsula. Does this inspire the British to neogtiate a peace, what with the Hapsburgs placid and the Russians and Prussians defeated yet again? News probably arrives before and may butterfly away Vitoria. Otherwise, Napoleon returns to the Penninsula, with a newer, yet probably bloodied army. I doubt he can hold it down, not after the french collapse in Iberia following 1808, but he may very well crush Wellington decisivly as he failed to do his first time there.
 
What happens on the peninsula is largely dependent on what happens in Germany and Poland. Acting under the assumption that Alexander is Napoleon's prisoner you could very well see him either deposed(if he caves and tries to make peace)or resistive and refuse to negotiate while he is Napoleon's captive, but either way I see Russia fighting on.

Napoleon could leave the eastern front in the hands of one of his subordinates and move to the peninsula since at this time Wellington was the best general arrayed against him and an actual threat to France itself.
 
What happens on the peninsula is largely dependent on what happens in Germany and Poland. Acting under the assumption that Alexander is Napoleon's prisoner you could very well see him either deposed(if he caves and tries to make peace)or resistive and refuse to negotiate while he is Napoleon's captive, but either way I see Russia fighting on.

Hrmm. My impression was that there was opposition within Russia to advancing into Europe to overthrow Napoleon, which one presumes would be strengthened if the Tsar is captured. Is this not so?

Napoleon could leave the eastern front in the hands of one of his subordinates and move to the peninsula since at this time Wellington was the best general arrayed against him and an actual threat to France itself.

My oncern about Napoleon going back to the Penninsula is that he didn't in 1810 and 1811. This has always suggested to me that he recognized that the situation was basically a quagmire. Smashing Wellington and securing Catalonia he could do, certainly. But beyond that?
 
Bautzen came after the retreat from Moscow.

Even if decisive I cannot see Napoleon wishing to repeat his mistake of going to Russia. The best he could hope for would be a peace settlement which clearly would be no more than a truce whilst wounds were licked.

That frontier and Germany could not be left unguarded as the populations were restless against the French.

So what about the Peninsular ? Note BTW Napoleon had never been there at the same time as Wellinton. Wellington had a well-trained army with a string of victories behind them. Napoleon's army by contrast was but a shadow of its original self.

Wellington was a master of strategy and would be quite capable of falling back and trading space if required. That then gives Napoleon severe logistical problems accopanied by the real problems in the East. Large armies starve in Spain so I don't think Napoleon will be doing any smashing of Wellington.
 
Hrmm. My impression was that there was opposition within Russia to advancing into Europe to overthrow Napoleon, which one presumes would be strengthened if the Tsar is captured. Is this not so?
Russian opposition to European campaign had Field Marshal Kutuzov himself as its main representant, but Kutuzov was dead by the time of Bautzen. On the other hand, main proponent of European campaign was the Tsar. If he is captured, and Russian army in Saxony is destroyed completely, then peace is possible. But what peace? Russia did not want Continental blockade, and France needed blockade zone including Russia.
However, even after hypotetical defeat of Russians, they would have sizable army in Caucasus (which could be transferred to the western border in extreme circumstances), garrisons in large cities of empire, and large masses of half-trained volunteers. If peace is not concluded and Napoleon did not invade Russia for the second time, then Russians would have new strong army as soon as after two to three years. Consequently, Napoleon had to reach peace on his conditions at all costs, even if those costs would include new campaign in Russia.
 
Russian opposition to European campaign had Field Marshal Kutuzov himself as its main representant, but Kutuzov was dead by the time of Bautzen. On the other hand, main proponent of European campaign was the Tsar. If he is captured, and Russian army in Saxony is destroyed completely, then peace is possible. But what peace? Russia did not want Continental blockade, and France needed blockade zone including Russia.

However, even after hypotetical defeat of Russians, they would have sizable army in Caucasus (which could be transferred to the western border in extreme circumstances), garrisons in large cities of empire, and large masses of half-trained volunteers. If peace is not concluded and Napoleon did not invade Russia for the second time, then Russians would have new strong army as soon as after two to three years. Consequently, Napoleon had to reach peace on his conditions at all costs, even if those costs would include new campaign in Russia.

I'm not so sure. bear in midn that there was a lot of exhaustion within France and Britain at the time; the luddites in Britain, desertion in France, and one gets the impression a peace of exhaustion is not impossible.
 
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