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In the summer of 1978, anyone interested in British politics was expecting Prime Minister Callaghan to call a General Election. His minority Labour government was ahead in the polls, its wage restraint policies were effectively tackling the runaway inflation that had led to the collapse of Ted Heath's Conservative ministry in 1974, and with the mutual ending of the Lib-Lad Pact in July, it seemed natural that Callaghan would go to the country. However a forth phase of wage restraint for the coming year was being brought in under Chancellor Healy, and with the Conservative Party under the unknown Magaret Thatcher still heavily devided between its monetarist and 'wet' Keynesian factions (even Thatcher herself was pretty vague on the party's direction in 1978), the PM saw no need for an election, the government's term not set to run out until autumn next year. Instead he hoped for the economic upturn to continue and call an election in spring 1979, to help ensure a solid Labour majority.

Famously at the Trade Union Congress conference on September 7th, when the issue of a possible snap election was mentioned, Callaghan sang a few lines of 'Waiting at the Chruch', mocking the nervous and expecting spectators in the press and Conservative Party. Although with hindsight this could be seen as a great act of hubris, it recieved bellows of laughter at the conference and helped increase Callaghan's personal poll position over Thatcher by several points.

However it was also at this meeting that the TUC completely refused the 5% wage increase cap suggested by Healy's Phase IV plan. Within days a large series of strikes had begun, many of them wildcat, many of them in important services. This was the famed 'Winter of Discontent'. Many moderate Union leaders found themselves isolated while private companies ignored Healy's wage cap and gave up to 20% wage increases in order to end strikes. This completely undermined the government, as public worker strikes continued. Although it would be anger from the Scottish Nationalist Party over devolution that would finally see the government fall, and an election called, these strikes opened the door for Thatcher's radical policy ideas (vague as they were) and a Tory government.

So a simple POD, Callaghan isn't so sure, holds off Phase IV (Healy was nowhere nearly as confident of Trade Union loyalty to Labour as the PM was, and didn't exactly run at Phase IV with great anticipation) and calls an election for September 1978 as expected. Labour have economic advantage over the Tories due to the infamous '3-day week' of their last ministry and their own solid success, while Thatcher is in a pickle without the Winter of Discontent. If she goes with either her own radicalism or a more wet campaign message, the Tories image as confrontational to the Unions (and the damage it caused in the early 70s) isn't going anywhere, and her fresher policy idea will arguably hurt the Tories in this atmosphere.

I'm going to be doing some research for a TL about a victorious majority Labour government in 1978, was wondering if anyone had any thoughts on how things would go. How strong would Labour be in the election? What Thatcher's future be? How will Callaghan deal with the Unions given a full term to do it in? Etc.
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