Crisis? What Crisis?

In the summer of 1978, anyone interested in British politics was expecting Prime Minister Callaghan to call a General Election. His minority Labour government was ahead in the polls, its wage restraint policies were effectively tackling the runaway inflation that had led to the collapse of Ted Heath's Conservative ministry in 1974, and with the mutual ending of the Lib-Lad Pact in July, it seemed natural that Callaghan would go to the country. However a forth phase of wage restraint for the coming year was being brought in under Chancellor Healy, and with the Conservative Party under the unknown Magaret Thatcher still heavily devided between its monetarist and 'wet' Keynesian factions (even Thatcher herself was pretty vague on the party's direction in 1978), the PM saw no need for an election, the government's term not set to run out until autumn next year. Instead he hoped for the economic upturn to continue and call an election in spring 1979, to help ensure a solid Labour majority.

Famously at the Trade Union Congress conference on September 7th, when the issue of a possible snap election was mentioned, Callaghan sang a few lines of 'Waiting at the Chruch', mocking the nervous and expecting spectators in the press and Conservative Party. Although with hindsight this could be seen as a great act of hubris, it recieved bellows of laughter at the conference and helped increase Callaghan's personal poll position over Thatcher by several points.

However it was also at this meeting that the TUC completely refused the 5% wage increase cap suggested by Healy's Phase IV plan. Within days a large series of strikes had begun, many of them wildcat, many of them in important services. This was the famed 'Winter of Discontent'. Many moderate Union leaders found themselves isolated while private companies ignored Healy's wage cap and gave up to 20% wage increases in order to end strikes. This completely undermined the government, as public worker strikes continued. Although it would be anger from the Scottish Nationalist Party over devolution that would finally see the government fall, and an election called, these strikes opened the door for Thatcher's radical policy ideas (vague as they were) and a Tory government.

So a simple POD, Callaghan isn't so sure, holds off Phase IV (Healy was nowhere nearly as confident of Trade Union loyalty to Labour as the PM was, and didn't exactly run at Phase IV with great anticipation) and calls an election for September 1978 as expected. Labour have economic advantage over the Tories due to the infamous '3-day week' of their last ministry and their own solid success, while Thatcher is in a pickle without the Winter of Discontent. If she goes with either her own radicalism or a more wet campaign message, the Tories image as confrontational to the Unions (and the damage it caused in the early 70s) isn't going anywhere, and her fresher policy idea will arguably hurt the Tories in this atmosphere.

I'm going to be doing some research for a TL about a victorious majority Labour government in 1978, was wondering if anyone had any thoughts on how things would go. How strong would Labour be in the election? What Thatcher's future be? How will Callaghan deal with the Unions given a full term to do it in? Etc.
 
A huge question really, so if you are interested in doing a TL I would advise you to take it slow and read a lot.

The easiest point is re: Thatcher. She would be gone. What the timescale would be is more debatable, but she would go. Even with no election victories under her belt, she would dig her heels in, but she would have nothing to fall back on. Nobody senior in the shadow cabinet supported her, other than Joseph, everyone else, to varying degrees, wanted her gone. Untenable position.

Subsequently, it's a fight probably between Prior, Howe, and possibly Peter Walker. Probably Prior.

Economically, it would be very difficult for Callaghan, particularly on the 'social' side of the economy. See if I can put more together later.
 
OK a few points.
  1. The election was expected when Callaghan had his teleivised address. I have seen a copy of an evening paper from that day, it said that Callaghan was going on TV to announce the election.
  2. The lection would have been held on Thursday October 12th 1978.
  3. The reason Callaghan didn't go with the election was because he thought he couldn't win, the best he believed was a hung parliament.
  4. I think he would have won with a small workable majority (think Major 1992-between 20-30 seats).
  5. Thatcher would have resigned. She said later that she would only get one chance, and qould have resigned.
  6. I agree with VJ, a fight between, Howe, Prior and Walker. Whow ins not sure.
  7. There was a docuemntary shown on BBC2 back in October 1993 "Called without her" which was a whole programme on this entire subject. Including news reprorts etc.
  8. As for Labour -well, I think there are four ideas. A) Labour falls apart in office- the left and right fighting, Falklands happens as our world, Callaghan wants a strong response as per Thatcher, but the hard left stop him. The Torys win the 83/84 election. B) Callaghan keeps the labour party in-tack, prevents the Falklands, stays on, and wins another term in 83/84, and retires mid-may through replaced by Healey. C) Callaghan retires in say 1981, and allows for Healey to win the leadership election D) As C but instead Foot wins the leadership and becomes Prime-Minister, a real hard left programme, and One i call the doomesday plan.
 
Actually, the more I think about it, the more I think Prior would get it. With the right on the back foot it seems pretty unlikely that Howe could win, although he would get a good showing, (Shadow Home Sec?) and Walker was just far too close to Heath and recent unpleasantness to make him palatable, even to the left - electing him would be a conscious step backwards and I can't see anyone wanting that.

There is of course always the possiblity of Willie throwing his hat in, but I really doubt he would have run in almost any leadership contest post-75. He was at least half-dragooned into it then.
 
I'm not too sure between Prior and Howe to be honest. There might be an anti-Right backlash and from my reading (just hiked two miles there and back with a few stone of books from my 'local' library), by 1978 there was already a nostalgic longing for Heath in some quarters, even satirical cartoons in newspapers implying Callaghan would be a more sutable Tory Leader. However the Right still dominated in the '22 Committee, as such a swing to the 'moderate right' under Howe seems a possibility, particularly if something resembling the Winter of Discontent happens before or during the Leadership Contest, I can imagine the Tories being flumuxed, can't go back to the wets but Thatcher was too harsh. Still as you said Prior is a frontrunner and the panicked swing away from Thatcher might take the Party back to the Left. Hmm, shall think.

On Labour's internal fluctuations, Foot and hard left have no chance IMO, their rise to power was very much a panicked reaction to Thatcher, while the Social-Democrat Right will be far less inclined to jump ship after a successful election. However a show-down of some sort with the TUC will have to take place. If the government can weather a Spring or Summer of Discontent, Callaghan will be forced to take action. His reaction to the events of OTL was one of shock. He couldn't believe Unionists (himself having strong links going way back) would strike en masse in crucial areas of the economy and society.

From Roy Hattersley's account of what happened during the final weeks of government in 1979, I suspect it would all be too much for the PM. He was already approaching 'Father of the House' status, and the constant wheeling and deeling of the minority years had ruined his will. Although an Election victory would lift his spirits, mass strike action and strong calls for a strong response would end him I think. He had lead the 1968 rebellion against Barbara Castle's In Place of Strife White Paper, designed to curb Union power, which would probably resurface in some form in 1979/1980 ITTL. Although Callaghan might see the nessecity, he may not have the heart. Anti-TUC legislation would have to hounded through Parliament, and success or failure, Callaghan would probably step down, with Healy the favourite to succeed, alongside very strong but ultimately minority opposition from the hard left.

I've also read that Callaghan was looking to David Owen(!) as a possible successor post election. Healy, and most the party will not be pleased if anything came of that me thinks.

I tempted to throw a Turtledove and have a far-left breakaway Party appear in the early 1980s but considering the Democratic Socialists like Benn are die-hard Party men and the Trostkyites were all entryists, not likely, still tempting in a cliched way :p
 
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