Creating a stable Europe in a CP win after WW1

Austria Hungary was facing massive problems among other things ethnic violence in Galicia and the istrian cities, starvation in Vienna, the Hungarian aristocracy withholding food, troops and taxes from the other half of the empire, the army an especially the officer corps utterly gutted by the Russian front, the army itself demoralized, disorganized, the navy impotent and having lost a major battleship to a port raid, among many many other things.

Because of the war, if you end the war the situation will improve.

In all probability you'd see 90s Yugoslavia style violence and ethnic cleansing, with Germany having to step in (and probably picking sides, and generally exacerbating the issue).

If the Austrians and Hungarians are not tied by foreign pressure like OTL they can keep order as soon as the war ends. If Germany chooses to make the same choices of USA IOTL they certainly are going to make the place a huge mess.

If nothing else Galicia is going to try and jump ship to unite with Russian Poland and that's going to trigger Ukrainian uprisings in Lviv.

They can try, doesn't mean that they have enough power to do so on violently and on their own. Without someone like the USA breathing down the neck of Austria and Hungary, it will be better to the polish if they don't take extreme measures, but I can see Austria letting Galicia-Lodomeria go away if they are given economic compensation and territories in the south.

That aside, you get a separate Hungary and possibly a separate Croatia, neither of which has any reason to be anti-German

You took Croatia from Hungary, that is enough to piss them and make them say "come get it". By the way, how are you going to divide the Hungarian territory? Are you giving Transylvania to Romania? Keeping it in Hungary? What about Banat? Vojvodina? You aren't going to have a stable situation after the thing is done because all those countries are going to develop rivalries with each other based on ethnic and historical reasons, and those rivalries could even be exploited by other powers. Instead of your previous Junior partner completely tied to your interests now you have a quagmire of small states with the same ethnical problems that Austria Hungary had before.
 
Because of the war, if you end the war the situation will improve.



If the Austrians and Hungarians are not tied by foreign pressure like OTL they can keep order as soon as the war ends. If Germany chooses to make the same choices of USA IOTL they certainly are going to make the place a huge mess.



They can try, doesn't mean that they have enough power to do so on violently and on their own. Without someone like the USA breathing down the neck of Austria and Hungary, it will be better to the polish if they don't take extreme measures, but I can see Austria letting Galicia-Lodomeria go away if they are given economic compensation and territories in the south.



You took Croatia from Hungary, that is enough to piss them and make them say "come get it". By the way, how are you going to divide the Hungarian territory? Are you giving Transylvania to Romania? Keeping it in Hungary? What about Banat? Vojvodina? You aren't going to have a stable situation after the thing is done because all those countries are going to develop rivalries with each other based on ethnic and historical reasons, and those rivalries could even be exploited by other powers. Instead of your previous Junior partner completely tied to your interests now you have a quagmire of small states with the same ethnical problems that Austria Hungary had before.

Like how the end of the war improves the situation in France and England. Or Italy, their victory totally resolved their internal problems...

By 1917/18 the Central powers generally and Austria in particular are staring down the barrel of major post war instability. Put bluntly if Austria Hungary survives you probably see herr Hitler come to power in Vienna in the 1920s, that was the way internal trends were going, and Germany wasnt much better in terms of having de facto military dictatorship,and one with a highly suspicious view on ethnic minorities.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
Another advantage of a late German victory is the fact that Russia is embroiled in civil war, which offers Germany the opportunity to break up Russia entirely, and remove their eastern rival from the board once and for all, since a victorios Germany is able to intervene in Russia much more than the Allies were able to IOTL. The best strategy for the Germans would be to intervene just enough to prevent a Red victory, but not enough to ensure a total White victory either, so that the civil war last a few years longer. In the end Russia would be such a basket case, and the warring factions so exhausted, that Germany could do almost anything it wanted - including breaking up Russia into a bunch of independent ‚Tsardoms‘, as Wilhelm imagined in 1918. Maybe they even leave a part of Russia for the Reds, to serve as a bogeyman. If Bessarabia was given to the Rumanians, then this would be a way to improve relations with another former enemy.

With Russia broken up and eastern Europe within the German sphere, Germany‘s position would be strong enough that it would no longer feel threatened by France at all, which means relations between the two countries could improve a lot in the post-war era.
Balkanization of Russia in the way imagined by Wilhelm is only possible with eternal occupation and Generalplan Ost. Brest-Litovsk as it was OTL was the most realistic plan.
 
You took Croatia from Hungary, that is enough to piss them and make them say "come get it".

That's why I said "perhaps". Either Croatia is stong enough to win its independence from Hungary or it isn't.

By the way, how are you going to divide the Hungarian territory? Are you giving Transylvania to Romania? Keeping it in Hungary? What about Banat? Vojvodina? You aren't going to have a stable situation after the thing is done because all those countries are going to develop rivalries with each other based on ethnic and historical reasons, and those rivalries could even be exploited by other powers. Instead of your previous Junior partner completely tied to your interests now you have a quagmire of small states with the same ethnical problems that Austria Hungary had before.

Same point. Either Banat and/or Transylvania have the power to win independence by their own efforts, or they don't. With Serbia and Rumania crushed by the CP, no one is in a position to help them even if so inclined. My guess is that Hungary holds on to all except maybe Croatia.
 
You took Croatia from Hungary, that is enough to piss them and make them say "come get it". By the way, how are you going to divide the Hungarian territory? Are you giving Transylvania to Romania? Keeping it in Hungary? What about Banat? Vojvodina? You aren't going to have a stable situation after the thing is done because all those countries are going to develop rivalries with each other based on ethnic and historical reasons, and those rivalries could even be exploited by other powers. Instead of your previous Junior partner completely tied to your interests now you have a quagmire of small states with the same ethnical problems that Austria Hungary had before.

The Kingdom of Hungary barely has a Hungarian plurality if you don`t count in Croatia. The Hungarians simply don`t have the strength to keep everyone down without the Austrians. If things are falling apart for Hungary, Croatia is just walking away on its own. No one needs to take it away from Hungary.
 
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