alternatehistory.com

Banker & pulp fiction writer Paul Erdman wrote several novels about economic/politcal catastropes in the latter 20th Century.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Erdman

Probablly the best. Written in the mid 1970s it revolved around the Shah of Iran attempting to seize the oil of Saudi Arabia. This end badly with the Saudi oilfields badly contaminated by radioactive fallout (a long lasting Cobalt isotope) & the Shahs command bunker also becoming a radio active hole in the ground. At the end of the story oil prices had rocketed up to over (gasp $100 a barrel), the global stock markets collapsed, and general woe & lamentations everywhere.

http://archive.org/details/crashof7900erdm

So, using Erdmanns novel 'The Crash of 79 as the PoD. What would the world look like now 44 years after?

Obviously one long term effect would be the difficulty in getting at the east Saudi oil fields. Would the dusting of hyper hot Cobalt isotopes be as large a problem as Erdman susposed?

The use of nukes, against both Saudi & Iranian territory would have long running political consequences.

Erdmans novel written some years before the Islamic revolution came to a head in Iran assumes it did not occur. I strongly suspect killing the Shah & auxillary attacks on the Iranian military/government would open the way for a fundamentalist revolution.

Third world nations would redouble effort to obtain nuclear weapons after the example of Erdmans Iran.

Accelerated exploration, exploitation of previously unprofitable oil fields, and development of laternatives like natural gas, coal, and nuclear power would eventually stabilize crude oil prices. ...but the acceleration of oil prices to the 21st Century levels we know would not be reveresed. Development of fringe technologies like wing turbines, or solar power would receive more investment money.

Floor is open to others ideas.
Top