CP Victory World: China

Even if they win the war in Europe, the war for the oceans has been won by Britain and Japan has taken the German concessions in China.

Their is one avenue for German influence in China however: Russia. If they intervene to bring victory for the Whites and restore monarchy in the Civil War, then a allied/puppet regime could grant them access to the trans-Siberian railroad as a means of projecting influence and troops into China.

Interesting possibility: Germany and White Russia ally to attack Japan, so as to return the German concessions to Germany and Manchuria into the Russian sphere of influence. Then they proceed to try and prop up a client faction in China- the Japanese and British respond by backing whatever opposition their is to the Russo-German client. I'm thinking an imperial Russo-German North and a republican Anglo-Japanese South.
 

Hendryk

Banned
With a CP victory in 1914, a lot of things go differently for China. Japan probably attacks Qingdao regardless--the military operations began in August and ended in November--but it might be forced to relinquish it, and without a war to keep the Western powers busy in Europe, it may not get the chance to issue demands on China in 1915, meaning that Yuan Shikai wouldn't get a serious blow to his already questionable legitimacy. He still probably dies the following year, and the men who in OTL became warlords are already in place as military governors, so that much stays the same.

Perhaps Kai-Shek stays in power due to German interference?
In 1914, he's still a minor figure in the Nationalist camp (BTW his name is Jiang).

Did China still declare war on Germany?
It was neutral at the time, and leaning slightly in Germany's favor.

Then Li made his political suicide by ordering Zhang Kun, who is indeed friendly to Germany, to bring troops into Beijing. However, once Zhang Kun entered Beijing, he began the joke and restored Emperor Puyi.
You mean Zhang Xun of course :)
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
As far as the German territories in China and the Pacific go, Japan still takes them even if the Germans win in Europe. Germany lacks the ability to project power into the Pacific on any meaningful scale, but at the same time Germany would not have accepted the loss of prestige that the loss of its colonies would entail. Neither would I expect Japan to give them back, even in exchange for a hefty financial settlement. Not sure how this one would turn out.
 
As far as the German territories in China and the Pacific go, Japan still takes them even if the Germans win in Europe. Germany lacks the ability to project power into the Pacific on any meaningful scale, but at the same time Germany would not have accepted the loss of prestige that the loss of its colonies would entail. Neither would I expect Japan to give them back, even in exchange for a hefty financial settlement. Not sure how this one would turn out.
They can project power through Russia if they prop up the White Russians, who would probably join in the hope of regaining Sakhalin and Manchuria. Still can't touch the Pacific island territories of course, though they might try to convince Japan to return them to Germany and Sakhalin to Russia in exchange for them withdrawing from Korea.
 
My big question is what happens to the May 4th Movement -- are events leading up to it different enough that it's effectively butterflied away? Or is the international context similar enough that something like it could well happen (or possibly even still likely to happen)? If the former, I'd say that's the biggest short term butterfly in China -- to start it means a much smaller (possibly, effectively no) Communist Party of China...

Without the Bolshevik revolution, there will not be a Chinese Communist Party.
 
I think that it should be pointed out that the Empire of China went out of existance in 1911 when Sun Yet Sin proclaimed the Chinese Republic.
 
At a bare minimum the Germans will be wanting Qingdao back. In the best-case scenario for the Germans they get a much larger series of bases for their Pacific Fleet by taking British Pacific Islands, which requires the kind of victory that is somewhere between ASB and Harry Turtledove-logistics.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Yes, there's a chance Yuan Shikai declare himself emperor. However China would still be a warlord mess, and Kuomintang would probably be strong in the South. As for the Communists, much depend on if the USSR is born in this TL.
 
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