Hi, everyone. I'm new to this forum but not to a love of alternate history. If the question I'm asking has already been answered in another thread, please direct me to it.
Here's the scenario I'm proposing. In the late 1860s the American Civil War turns out differently due to some better choices by the Confederacy and a bit of luck, resulting in North America being split between the USA and CSA. This keeps a unified America out of the Great War in Europe. In 1918 Germany and the Central Powers win due to the lack of American involvement and a great result of German offensives that year. So in this timeline we have two POD--a Confederate win in the US circa 1864, which leads to a CP victory in 1918 and a German dominance of Europe. And before it comes up, yes I'm familiar with TL-191, Harry Turtledove's Southern Victory series. I've taken some ideas from that series but modified them a bit as I don't want the fascist CSA with the Hitler-esque president.
Now my questions revolve around what happens after 1918 and leading into the 1930s and 40s. I want to create a situation with an alternate WW2 where fascism develops in France similar to how it did in Germany in our timeline. I've looked at some possibilities where a France is bothered by the war reparations put on it by Germany, a military hero rises to power, fascism becomes the norm in French politics, and we have a "Germany before WW2" setting. I believe that this could happen, though France would be in a much different situation than Germany was in our TL. I've seen similar discussions on other alt-history sites that suggest France could go this direction after a CP victory.
I know that France wouldn't have the population or power to try and attack Germany on its own, especially after two relatively recent loses to Germany. So France will need allies. I would like to consider the possibility of Hitler coming to power in Austria-Hungary rather than Germany since he was Austrian. He would bring his radical beliefs, racism, and Aryan superiority, turning Austria-Hungary into a smaller version of our WW2 Germany. These developments would lead to an alliance between fascist France, Italy, and Hitler-run Austria-Hungary against Germany.
Now for the questions.....How plausible is the scenario that I outline in the last paragraph above? Even if it's implausible (but not impossible), what would need to happen in order for these events to come about, especially a rise to power of Hitler in Austria-Hungary? Is my thinking completely off-base?