CP Victory in WW1...Fascist France and Hitler in Power in Austria-Hungary?

any intervention in A-H will not be a single event but a long and tiring work as that nation without external help will simple disintegrate.

Why should it be "long and tiring"?

The Czechs and Slovenes know perfectly well that if A-H dissolves they'll find themselves annexed to the Reich, so for them the only choice is between indirect German rule (under the Habsburgs) and direct German rule. Independence is not on offer.

The Hungarians know that if they bolt from the Dual Monarchy they'll be under Germany's thumb just as much as A-H was before - probably more so as the disparity in size is far greater - and may get carved up.

The Croats know the same, and also that if they are strong enough to break with A-H they don't really need to do it, as they are also strong enough to secure a bigger measure of self-government within it - a safer option than becoming a mini-state precariously wedged in between Germany, Italy and Hungary.

These things being so, enough are likely to stay loyal to enable A-H to put down any scattered revolts with only a modest amount of German help - if indeed any is needed at all.
 
Why should it be "long and tiring"?

The Czechs and Slovenes know perfectly well that if A-H dissolves they'll find themselves annexed to the Reich, so for them the only choice is between indirect German rule (under the Habsburgs) and direct German rule. Independence is not on offer.

The Hungarians know that if they bolt from the Dual Monarchy they'll be under Germany's thumb just as much as A-H was before - probably more so as the disparity in size is far greater - and may get carved up.

The Croats know the same, and also that if they are strong enough to break with A-H they don't really need to do it, as they are also strong enough to secure a bigger measure of self-government within it - a safer option than becoming a mini-state precariously wedged in between Germany, Italy and Hungary.

These things being so, enough are likely to stay loyal to enable A-H to put down any scattered revolts with only a modest amount of German help - if indeed any is needed at all.

Sure they can, and what future have a nation in this situation? What her prospective in just the middle time, with the perennial need of someone to prop up her and openly a vassal for the German Empire. Even before the war the situation and the management of the A-H Empire was complicated, after the greatest and bloodier conflict know to men and with the total discredit of the entire civilian and military leadership and in the full age of nationalism, it will not get better or even just functional whatever one can hope.
Hell, being a direct German vassal can be seen as a more viable solution than being part of something already dead, as at least you have nominal independence and the measure of self-goverment that Czech, Croats and Magyar want from Wien mean in practice that the Empire will become something like the commonwealth, with the single part having the Emperor as a nomila head of state but in reality doing what they want, basically like a dinosaur, the Empire is deasd...just don't know yet.

Finally, the argument that the various nationality will not rebels or secede because 'they know' it's useless as Germany will come and get them, don't really hold much water as if this was true, the entire history of humanity will be a lot more quiet as many rebellion have not happened.
As any story, even nation have a beginning, a middle and a end, WWI was the end of A-H, Tsarist Russia and the Ottoman Empire, for specific reason...the principals was that in the decades before they failed to modernize and so they have not any means to cope with the terrible repercussion both social, cultural and economic of somethig so soulcrushing as the First World War.
 
basically like a dinosaur, the Empire is deasd...just don't know yet.

A state of affairs which can continue quite a while if the state concerned is not overthrown from without.


Finally, the argument that the various nationality will not rebels or secede because 'they know' it's useless as Germany will come and get them, don't really hold much water as if this was true, the entire history of humanity will be a lot more quiet as many rebellion have not happened.

Nonetheless I think it's valid for the Czechs and Slovenes, neither of whom had rebelled in a heck of a long time.

In the Czech case, note that neither in 1938/9 nor 1968 did they resort to armed resistance when they could see it was hopeless. The Slovenes of course are so small that it's hardly an option for them.

I accept that the Magyars might try, but if they do they are liable to find Croats, Slovaks etc rebelling against them. However those various groups may feel about Austria, their immediate enemy is Hungary. Can the Magyars really hold down all those peoples whilst simultaneously fighting Austria - and possibly Germany as well?


As any story, even nation have a beginning, a middle and a end, WWI was the end of A-H, Tsarist Russia and the Ottoman Empire, for specific reason...the principals was that in the decades before they failed to modernize and so they have not any means to cope with the terrible repercussion both social, cultural and economic of somethig so soulcrushing as the First World War.

But except for Russia they stuck it out to the end of the war, collapsing 0nly a matter of weeks before /Germany herself did.

Sometime in the next generation or two they might indeed have come a cropper some other way (I agree that AH at least was fragile [1]) but I don't see any inevitability about it happening in 1918 or immediately after had they been on the winning side.


[1] Re the OE, what exactly does collapse mea? Are we talking dismemberment, or just regime change? Afais, the only minority strong enough to have much chance of seceding is the Arabs, and they have so many internal divisions that even they might not manage it.
 
Sure they can, and what future have a nation in this situation? What her prospective in just the middle time, with the perennial need of someone to prop up her and openly a vassal for the German Empire. Even before the war the situation and the management of the A-H Empire was complicated, after the greatest and bloodier conflict know to men and with the total discredit of the entire civilian and military leadership and in the full age of nationalism, it will not get better or even just functional whatever one can hope.
Hell, being a direct German vassal can be seen as a more viable solution than being part of something already dead, as at least you have nominal independence and the measure of self-goverment that Czech, Croats and Magyar want from Wien mean in practice that the Empire will become something like the commonwealth, with the single part having the Emperor as a nomila head of state but in reality doing what they want, basically like a dinosaur, the Empire is deasd...just don't know yet.

Finally, the argument that the various nationality will not rebels or secede because 'they know' it's useless as Germany will come and get them, don't really hold much water as if this was true, the entire history of humanity will be a lot more quiet as many rebellion have not happened.
As any story, even nation have a beginning, a middle and a end, WWI was the end of A-H, Tsarist Russia and the Ottoman Empire, for specific reason...the principals was that in the decades before they failed to modernize and so they have not any means to cope with the terrible repercussion both social, cultural and economic of somethig so soulcrushing as the First World War.
Well, living on as a German-supported state would be annoying for A-H, but it's not so terrible if you just have to do it for a few years.

And I think it can be just a few years. Inertia will swing things back to mostly-quiet as soon as the Austrians-proper have their economy and army back on the rails. Czechia/Bohemia is such a mix of Czechs and Germans it will always be worth fighting for for the Austrians, Slovenia is small enough (and partly mixed) they can always manage, so the only reason to be eternally in need of propping-up would be a permanent falling out between the Magyars and Austrians.

And as the Ausgleich shows, even the most stubborn Austrians knew that that was indeed the most lethal threat to the country, so they'll probably be able to negotiate a new compromise on the basis of the initial German support so that the whole thing doesn't fall apart.

Note: none of this necessarily makes Austria a great power. It just makes it strong enough to hold itself together without outright German propping-up (indirect support in exchange for economic influence in Austria-Bohemia is probably inevitable), with perhaps continuing violence in the south-slavic provinces.
 
And as the Ausgleich shows, even the most stubborn Austrians knew that that was indeed the most lethal threat to the country, so they'll probably be able to negotiate a new compromise on the basis of the initial German support so that the whole thing doesn't fall apart.

The 'problem' is that after the war and all the blood split, even the Croats, the Slovack and the Czech will want the same deal of autonomy of the Magyar and i doubt that they will take a no or a maybe later as an answer, but allowing that, in the end, mean transform the A-H Empire in the C.S.I

A state of affairs which can continue quite a while if the state concerned is not overthrown from without.

So Cancer.


Sometime in the next generation or two they might indeed have come a cropper some other way (I agree that AH at least was fragile [1]) but I don't see any inevitability about it happening in 1918 or immediately after had they been on the winning side.

It's World War I; winning or losing mean almost nothing in the end. The entire event it's the ultimate stess test for the entire nation system and if you are not strong enough, you are history (both before the end or in the post- war period)

But except for Russia they stuck it out to the end of the war, collapsing 0nly a matter of weeks before /Germany herself did.

As said, it's a very difficult event happening during wartime, the real challenge start just when the gun fell silent and there is no external enemy to focalize your attention. What do you thing will happen when the soldiers will come home? They will want job (and there will be few) and reform as they have gone through hell and back and they feel to deserve it and the goverment will not deliver as they can't or that all their sacrifice has been for some bits of territory (as the nation it's not capable to absorb any other nationality), or that the one who really take the decision in A-H seat in Berlin and not in Wien or Budapest.

Regarding the OE, well, dismemberment in case of victory will not really happen, probably some arab part will be let go as seen as not worthy the effort (and in general the enstablishment was already thinking at consolidate the nation in a more Turk-centric block)...but regime change it's inevitable, probably a Kemalist revolution or something similar
 
The 'problem' is that after the war and all the blood split, even the Croats, the Slovack and the Czech will want the same deal of autonomy of the Magyar and i doubt that they will take a no or a maybe later as an answer, but allowing that, in the end, mean transform the A-H Empire in the C.S.I
The Slovaks and Croats maybe, but that's not initially Austria's problem (and probably they'll be happy to do it if it doesn't hurt relations with Hungary too much; Austria with Slovakia/Hungary/Croatia is far easier for the Austro-Germans to control than Austria with big-Hungary). The Czechs are out of luck; they live in land the Austrians and Germans consider German, and which a lot of the locals consider German. The Bohemian Germans would probably prefer being in Austria as majority to in a new Czechia as minority.

It might get nasty in Bohemia if the Austro-Germans stand firm, but I very much expect Austria with initial German help has the ability to be nasty enough to squash the Czechs.
 
The Slovaks and Croats maybe, but that's not initially Austria's problem (and probably they'll be happy to do it if it doesn't hurt relations with Hungary too much; Austria with Slovakia/Hungary/Croatia is far easier for the Austro-Germans to control than Austria with big-Hungary). The Czechs are out of luck; they live in land the Austrians and Germans consider German, and which a lot of the locals consider German. The Bohemian Germans would probably prefer being in Austria as majority to in a new Czechia as minority.

It might get nasty in Bohemia if the Austro-Germans stand firm, but I very much expect Austria with initial German help has the ability to be nasty enough to squash the Czechs.

So the prospective are squash the Magyar, squash the Czechs...maybe squash the Croats and the Slovaks, squash anyone who want to change how the Empire work (and there will be plenty). In case there is no squash, govern with Magyar multiplied by four while learning how better clean German boots...yeah, easy peasy, why worry.
Sorry for the sarcasm, but more we talk about it and more the prospective for the Hapsburg seem between insurmontable and horrible
 
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So the prospective are squash the Magyar, squash the Czechs...maybe squash the Croats and the Slovaks, squash anyone who want to change how the Empire work (and there will be plenty). In case there is no squash, govern with Magyar multiplied by four...yeah, easy peasy, why worry.
Sorry for the sarcasm, but more we talk about it and more the prospective for the Hapsburg seem between insurmontable and horrible
No. The plan is squash any Czechs who get uppity while negotiating a deal with whoever in greater Hungary looks the best prospect. It's probably not going to be the old Magyar aristocracy, but if that means a more general Hungarian alliance or a partition of Hungary between Hungarians, Slovaks and Croats (+Bosnians, to some extent?) is anyone's guess; partition gives more loyal Croatia and Slovakia (who by their size will be easy to control, where I mean control as controlling general and foreign policy, not control as in removed local government) but probably less loyal Hungary - while unity makes much of it Hungary's problem but Hungary will also more easily cause trouble for the entire country in a few decades.

Just as a reminder, I did allow an initial status as basically-a-German-puppet. Germany will probably be willing to expend the manpower and cost to 'protect' the Germans of Bohemia if the Austrians show sufficient flexibility to long-term pacify greater Hungary.
 
Just as a reminder, I did allow an initial status as basically-a-German-puppet. Germany will probably be willing to expend the manpower and cost to 'protect' the Germans of Bohemia if the Austrians show sufficient flexibility to long-term pacify greater Hungary.

I know, but the initial stuatus of puppet will probably last till Berlin say so, sorry, i doubt that anyone in Germany will desire that their southern neighbour having some strange idea like being an independent country or anything else that an appendix of the German Empire.

No. The plan is squash any Czechs who get uppity while negotiating a deal with whoever in greater Hungary looks the best prospect. It's probably not going to be the old Magyar aristocracy, but if that means a more general Hungarian alliance or a partition of Hungary between Hungarians, Slovaks and Croats (+Bosnians, to some extent?) is anyone's guess; partition gives more loyal Croatia and Slovakia (who by their size will be easy to control, where I mean control as controlling general and foreign policy, not control as in removed local government) but probably less loyal Hungary - while unity makes much of it Hungary's problem but Hungary will also more easily cause trouble for the entire country in a few decades.

Sorry, but all this plan were discarted pre-war because in the end they have just caused more problem and augmented the difficulty of govern the nation. I fail to see how they can work with the level of rage, nationalism and disillusioment towards the current leaderships that existed anywhere after the First Great Massacre. Regarding the Magyar, i doubt that other local political entity will have a different opinion regarding any division of Hungary than the aristocracy
 
I know, but the initial stuatus of puppet will probably last till Berlin say so, sorry, i doubt that anyone in Germany will desire that their southern neighbour having some strange idea like being an independent country or anything else that an appendix of the German Empire.
Unless Germany is willing to expend the effort of doing everything for it, not very likely. Germany will at least expect Austria to take over internal policing costs, and before you know it there's a serious KuK army again, at which point Germany has to ask itself if meddling with internal policy Y is really more important than having a useful and friendly Austrian army.

Sorry, but all this plan were discarted pre-war because in the end they have just caused more problem and augmented the difficulty of govern the nation. I fail to see how they can work with the level of rage, nationalism and disillusioment towards the current leaderships that existed anywhere after the First Great Massacre. Regarding the Magyar, i doubt that other local political entity will have a different opinion regarding any division of Hungary than the aristocracy
Sure, but pre-war there was also not a very reasonable risk of Austria-Hungary falling apart without reforms. If that risk is no longer present, there's no real reason for reform (but there's no problem for A-H either), but if there is such a risk maybe a reworked division of the country is a better plan than letting the Magyars try to beat up all minorities.

And the disillusionment will at least go down somewhat compared to its 1918 high, after all Austria-Hungary just won!
 
Unless Germany is willing to expend the effort of doing everything for it, not very likely. Germany will at least expect Austria to take over internal policing costs, and before you know it there's a serious KuK army again, at which point Germany has to ask itself if meddling with internal policy Y is really more important than having a useful and friendly Austrian army.



A possibility, for this reason i always say that Germany will go for the division of the country, after a while as it's more manageable for them in the middle and long term. Berlin will look at his interest it's not in the field of charity and your scenario it's more or less like the URSS allowing Poland and the other east europe nation being independent aka not going to happen.
Regarding a serious KuK army, you need somekind of national unity to field a national army and frankly in any scenario described there...it's the thing that lack, unless the Magyar after being putted down suddenly think that the dual monarchy it's a beautifull idea, same for the other nationalities; hell even the German will think that an union with Germany bring more hope for the future.

And the disillusionment will at least go down somewhat compared to its 1918 high, after all Austria-Hungary just won!

Had won the bloodiest war in human history, gaining almost nothing and becoming the puppet of Germany...i don't think that there will be many that will be in the mood to party; plus OTL demonstrated that even the winner were not immune to extreme disillusionment.

Sure, but pre-war there was also not a very reasonable risk of Austria-Hungary falling apart without reforms. If that risk is no longer present, there's no real reason for reform (but there's no problem for A-H either), but if there is such a risk maybe a reworked division of the country is a better plan than letting the Magyars try to beat up all minorities.

Even pre-war the management of the A-H goverment was extremely complicated and everyone knows that reform were necessary; just everybody was scared by the consequence of that reform and the fact that in many scenarios things will have even worsened.
The Magyar are not the only problem, even the other nationalities will want their reward after having fought that kind of war; not considering that many will also want a more liberal state or even different form of goverment than the monarchy.
 
A possibility, for this reason i always say that Germany will go for the division of the country, after a while as it's more manageable for them in the middle and long term. Berlin will look at his interest it's not in the field of charity and your scenario it's more or less like the URSS allowing Poland and the other east europe nation being independent aka not going to happen.
Regarding a serious KuK army, you need somekind of national unity to field a national army and frankly in any scenario described there...it's the thing that lack, unless the Magyar after being putted down suddenly think that the dual monarchy it's a beautifull idea, same for the other nationalities; hell even the German will think that an union with Germany bring more hope for the future.

Had won the bloodiest war in human history, gaining almost nothing and becoming the puppet of Germany...i don't think that there will be many that will be in the mood to party; plus OTL demonstrated that even the winner were not immune to extreme disillusionment.

Even pre-war the management of the A-H goverment was extremely complicated and everyone knows that reform were necessary; just everybody was scared by the consequence of that reform and the fact that in many scenarios things will have even worsened.
The Magyar are not the only problem, even the other nationalities will want their reward after having fought that kind of war; not considering that many will also want a more liberal state or even different form of goverment than the monarchy.
Austria-Bohemia is big enough to field an army. ~25 million or so inhabitants compared to Germany's 70 million. And Austria-Bohemia is the area that the Habsburgs should be able to unify if nothing else.
Granted you make one suggestion that might wreck my ideas, the Austrians-proper defecting to wanting to be in Germany. In that case Germany loses a lot of interest in propping up, and A-H has noone to build on. You might see the country shattering with Austria-Bohemia getting to be part of Germany and the rest being scattered to the wind to be swept up by German influence.
 
The 'problem' is that after the war and all the blood split, even the Croats, the Slovack and the Czech will want the same deal of autonomy of the Magyar and i doubt that they will take a no or a maybe later as an answer, but allowing that, in the end, mean transform the A-H Empire in the C.S.I

But of course the Slovaks (and Croats) will in the first instance be seeking independence from Hungary. If the Magyars are themselves having to cope with revolts by their own subject peoples, are they really going to take on Austria (and possibly Germany depending on Berlin's attitude) at the same time?


Regarding the OE, well, dismemberment in case of victory will not really happen, probably some arab part will be let go as seen as not worthy the effort (and in general the enstablishment was already thinking at consolidate the nation in a more Turk-centric block)...but regime change it's inevitable, probably a Kemalist revolution or something similar

Agreed. That's quite likely.

FTM, I could imagine a 1920s Austria-Hungary being run in the Emperor's name by some Central European equivalent of the Fascist Grand Council. I don't imagine parliamentary government will work any better postwar than prewar.
 

yourworstnightmare

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The Magyar elite had a "staying in the dual monarchy as long as staying benefits us" attitude. At some point it wouldn't benefit them anymore for whatever reason (Austria trying to create a Slavic Crown and threatening to take lands from the Crown of St. Stephen, or just the threat of a Russian dominated Balkans Alliance for whatever reason going away).
 
Hi, everyone. I'm new to this forum but not to a love of alternate history. If the question I'm asking has already been answered in another thread, please direct me to it.

Here's the scenario I'm proposing. In the late 1860s the American Civil War turns out differently due to some better choices by the Confederacy and a bit of luck, resulting in North America being split between the USA and CSA. This keeps a unified America out of the Great War in Europe. In 1918 Germany and the Central Powers win due to the lack of American involvement and a great result of German offensives that year. So in this timeline we have two POD--a Confederate win in the US circa 1864, which leads to a CP victory in 1918 and a German dominance of Europe. And before it comes up, yes I'm familiar with TL-191, Harry Turtledove's Southern Victory series. I've taken some ideas from that series but modified them a bit as I don't want the fascist CSA with the Hitler-esque president.

Now my questions revolve around what happens after 1918 and leading into the 1930s and 40s. I want to create a situation with an alternate WW2 where fascism develops in France similar to how it did in Germany in our timeline. I've looked at some possibilities where a France is bothered by the war reparations put on it by Germany, a military hero rises to power, fascism becomes the norm in French politics, and we have a "Germany before WW2" setting. I believe that this could happen, though France would be in a much different situation than Germany was in our TL. I've seen similar discussions on other alt-history sites that suggest France could go this direction after a CP victory.

I know that France wouldn't have the population or power to try and attack Germany on its own, especially after two relatively recent loses to Germany. So France will need allies. I would like to consider the possibility of Hitler coming to power in Austria-Hungary rather than Germany since he was Austrian. He would bring his radical beliefs, racism, and Aryan superiority, turning Austria-Hungary into a smaller version of our WW2 Germany. These developments would lead to an alliance between fascist France, Italy, and Hitler-run Austria-Hungary against Germany.

Now for the questions.....How plausible is the scenario that I outline in the last paragraph above? Even if it's implausible (but not impossible), what would need to happen in order for these events to come about, especially a rise to power of Hitler in Austria-Hungary? Is my thinking completely off-base?

I think it would be more possible for France to turn communist rather than fascist.
 
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