CP Victory in WW1...Fascist France and Hitler in Power in Austria-Hungary?

When had the Croats ever been "fighting for independence"? They would certainly have preferred to be separated from Hungary, but they don't seem to have had any particular quarrel with Austria (let alone Germany). And their relations with the Serbs are such that the two are most unlikely to make common cause.

Many Croats and Serbs did make common cause; they joined since 1905 in an anti-Austrian, pro-independence coalition. And this coalition won most of the elections carried out in Croatia prior to 1914.

As for the late war situation...by mid-1918 the Croatian countryside was engulfed in peasant republics and general anarchy. The Austro-Hungarian authorities were faced with a quasi-socialist uprising which involved nearly 200,000 people, in spite its decentralization and lack of coordination. This won't be at all easy to deal with.
 

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Poland and Romania are the natural fascist allies to France. A victorious CP is likely to cause lots of ethnic resentment and territorial grievances for the Poles that the French might be all too happy to support. Britain would be between a rock and a hard place, but might be more sympathetic to a Fascist, especially if Germany had successfully humiliated the Royal Navy locally or abroad enough to blow the blockade open and conversely to partially starve Britain.

I am not sure a Poland would exist in a CP victory let alone a Soviet Union. A rump White Russia is possible.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
When had the Croats ever been "fighting for independence"? They would certainly have preferred to be separated from Hungary, but they don't seem to have had any particular quarrel with Austria (let alone Germany). And their relations with the Serbs are such that the two are most unlikely to make common cause.

Given that their flirting with the Ukrainians has alienated to Poles from the Monarchy, they may at some point have to let Galicia go. But that would not be a fatal loss to the Monarchy, and indeed might even strengthen it by leaving the Austrian half with a comfortable German majority.
Croatia wanted independence as much as everyone else in A-H, either as a separate Croatia or a part of a South Slavic state. They didn't like Budapest, but didn't see dominance by Vienna as a alluring alternative. A Slavic Third Crown in the Empire might have been possible if WW1 didn't happen, but the type of people in charge of the Empire during the war would never have allowed it. Hötzendorf and his ilk were all about Germanic supremacy. Which is why the war really was the worst thing that could have happened to A-H. It brought in the most incompetent idiots into power that would have made sure Everything collapsed even if the war was won.
 
Croatia wanted independence as much as everyone else in A-H, either as a separate Croatia or a part of a South Slavic state.

The HSP, the only party that advocated actual independence from Austria-Hungary, never controlled the Croatian Parliament. Now this may be because advocating such a thing would mean committing high treason, and the sentiment was far more popular than it would seem at first, but I seriously doubt that any large-scale Croat revolt would happen unless the Monarchy was literally falling apart. Which, again, after a protracted war seems likely.
 
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unless the Monarchy was literally falling apart. Which, again, after a protracted war seems likely.

Doesn't that depend very much on the attitude of its German neighbour?

Frex, no doubt a lot of Hungarians are playing with the idea of separation, but will they go through with it if they get a quiet word from the. German embassy that in such an event, Germany reserves the right to patronise Croat, Slovak and other elements who want to secede from Hungary? After all, does Germany owe the Magyars anything in particular?
 
When had the Croats ever been "fighting for independence"? They would certainly have preferred to be separated from Hungary, but they don't seem to have had any particular quarrel with Austria (let alone Germany). And their relations with the Serbs are such that the two are most unlikely to make common cause.

Given that their flirting with the Ukrainians has alienated to Poles from the Monarchy, they may at some point have to let Galicia go. But that would not be a fatal loss to the Monarchy, and indeed might even strengthen it by leaving the Austrian half with a comfortable German majority.

The Austro-Hungarian Empire was pretty patchwork and ethnic tensions at least in Boznia and Herzegovina were erupting. I'm not too sure about the Croatian situation, but given that ethnic revolts occurred all throughout the Empire near the end of the war, most of the empire probably would have inevitably split off even if Austria-Hungary was on the winning side.
 
The Austro-Hungarian Empire was pretty patchwork and ethnic tensions at least in Boznia and Herzegovina were erupting. I'm not too sure about the Croatian situation, but given that ethnic revolts occurred all throughout the Empire near the end of the war, most of the empire probably would have inevitably split off even if Austria-Hungary was on the winning side.

Not until October 1918, when the CPs were suing for peace and everyone knew it was time to jump ship. Before that there were occasional mutinies and a huge number of desertions, but overt secession only occurred when the military position had become so obviously hopeless that in most places the KuK authorities just handed over to the new regimes without a fight. That obviously doesn't happen if the CPs have won.
 
Not until October 1918, when the CPs were suing for peace and everyone knew it was time to jump ship. Before that there were occasional mutinies and a huge number of desertions, but overt secession only occurred when the military position had become so obviously hopeless that in most places the KuK authorities just handed over to the new regimes without a fight. That obviously doesn't happen if the CPs have won.

Not really, late victory mean just that the A-H had bought a couple of very troubled life; the war has been too much, too blood and tresure spent not considering even the fact that the entire military and political leaderships has lost most of their credibility and legitimancy and the post-war political and economical problem will add to the pre-war ones and the nation it's not equipped to survive it.
By 1918 the Hapsburg Empire it's a whole owned subsidiary of the German Empire, so there is no incentive in remaining attached at a troubled corpse unless Berlin decide to prop up for her reason and post-war they will have their own political and economic problem.
Secession or revolution during wartime it's not a simple thing, you need a total collapse of the previous authority or an extremely dire military/social/economic situation like in Russia, the real problem come in peacetime, when there is no pressure from an external enemy and in general people want to know why they have sacrificed so much for so little (frankly after this kind of war, none will be satisfied from what obtained at the peace table...as it's basically impossible).

Winning the war it's the almost trivial thing in this scenario, the real hard work for the CP (in a late war victory scenario) will be winning the peace.
 

Germaniac

Donor
Croatia was very pro Hapsburg. Only when. The Italian front collapsed and the slavic "nations" severed from the empire did croatia withdraw.

In a cp victory the only hope for a-h has is of they can bring the Slavics together. Give Bohemia and croatia nationhood inside and they have a chance
 
In any case, the loss of Bosnia and Herzegovina is basically inevitable in this scenario, even with CP victory - if anything, the pan-Slavic nationalist terrorism and rebellions would intensify.
 
Not really, late victory mean just that the A-H had bought a couple of very troubled life; the war has been too much, too blood and tresure spent not considering even the fact that the entire military and political leaderships has lost most of their credibility and legitimancy and the post-war political and economical problem will add to the pre-war ones and the nation it's not equipped to survive it.
By 1918 the Hapsburg Empire it's a whole owned subsidiary of the German Empire, so there is no incentive in remaining attached at a troubled corpse unless Berlin decide to prop up for her reason and post-war they will have their own political and economic problem.

But whatever problems Germany has, she's hardly going to let the power which covers her south-eastern flank just dissolve into a bunch of petty states, many of which might be hostile to her. Even the Social Democrats aren't likely to advocate that.


Secession or revolution during wartime it's not a simple thing, you need a total collapse of the previous authority or an extremely dire military/social/economic situation like in Russia, the real problem come in peacetime, when there is no pressure from an external enemy and in general people want to know why they have sacrificed so much for so little (frankly after this kind of war, none will be satisfied from what obtained at the peace table...as it's basically impossible).

Winning the war it's the almost trivial thing in this scenario, the real hard work for the CP (in a late war victory scenario) will be winning the peace.

Sure, the place will certainly be a mess, but there's still the question of who secedes and where do they go.

The Czechs can't. They are all but surrounded by areas of German population, and have a massive German minority within. A revolt there would be lucky to last a week. And even if for some reason the Habsburgs were unable to deal with it by themselves, it would cost Germany nothing to station a few of her divisions in Bohemia instead of Saxony.

The Hungarians would probably like to secede, but they'd be taking a chance doing it without Germany's approval. The Germans have a bone to pick with them over the Magyarisation policies imposed on their German minority, and in a Europe where Deutschland really is "uber alles" may decide to do something about it. And if Hungary insists on breaking up the Dual Monarchy, the Germans might decide to subdivide Hungary itself. Warum nicht? She could all too easily end up suffering a "Treaty of Trianon" imposed from Berlin instead of Paris.[1]

That leaves the Croats, but they can probably be satisfied by a degree of internal self-rule, comparable to what Hungary already has. The Magyars will no doubt scream blue murder, but if they try to secede, they most likely lose Croatia anyway, so they can't really do very much. And if the Monarchy holds on to Bohemia, Hungary and Croatia that reduces the problem to one or two outlying provinces, which is probably manageable.

The long run, of course, is harder to predict, but I doubt if collapse would be as imminent as all that.

[1] They also have some gripes about Hungary's wartime behaviour. I forget exactly where I read it, but istr an incident in 1918 where a shipment of grain en route to Germany was seized by a Hungarian mob, with the local authorities apparently not making much effort to prevent it. Ludendorff, iirc, was spitting rivets and talked about sending in troops, but refrained because he couldn't spare any from the Front. So Hungary may find that it has few friends in post-victory Berlin.
 

While your argument make sense, still don't answer at the most important question: why the people of the Austro-Hungarian Empire need to still invest (time, money, loyalty), obey and work to make functional a nation that had lost almost all his reason to be and all credibility, not considering the post-war mess both in economic and political sense, all that in a moment when nationalism it's at his peak (and it was even before the war).
Seem that the only reason the A-H survive it's because the German need it and while can be feasibile from a military pow, it basically destroy any shread of legitimancy the Hapsburg ruler had; at least the communist regime in the Warsaw Pact had an ideology to back them up, here not even that.

A situation like that t's not workable in the short, middle or long time and frankly Germany can simple decide that more small nation are much more manageable that the single mess of the A-H, even because they will have their own mess to resolve both at home and in their new little colonial empire in the east, plus regarding putting down rebellions, one must also factor the fact that war wearyness of the general population.
 
A situation like that t's not workable in the short, middle or long time and frankly Germany can simple decide that more small nation are much more manageable that the single mess of the A-H, even because they will have their own mess to resolve both at home and in their new little colonial empire in the east, plus regarding putting down rebellions, one must also factor the fact that war wearyness of the general population.


Doesn't the weariness work both ways?

When the soldiers have been allowed to go home at last, will they be eager to rush to arms again against their government, esp if it might mean taking on a victorious Germany as well?
 
Doesn't the weariness work both ways?

When the soldiers have been allowed to go home at last, will they be eager to rush to arms again against their government, esp if it might mean taking on a victorious Germany as well?

OTL (immediate post-WWI) demonstrated that weariness was more appliable to foreign adventures/intervention than internal revolution as the last had totally different motivation; basically there is a lot of rage for the enstablishment that had caused the all mess (regardless of the country) and a need to change; the only group that succesfully used that for some attempt at foreign adventures were the communist but it was also due to the almost 'messianic' nature of the ideology.
 
OTL (immediate post-WWI) demonstrated that weariness was more appliable to foreign adventures/intervention than internal revolution

Even when the intervention was in a next-door neighbour vital to one's security?

OTL, after all, German Freikorps went on fighting against the Poles and in the Baltic States well into 1919 even after Germany had been defeated. So I don't see why a victorious Germany, however tired, couldn't or wouldn't intervene in Austria - esp if this could be presented as defending fellow-Germans against their enemies.
 
Even when the intervention was in a next-door neighbour vital to one's security?

Next-door sure, vital...debatable; people in Berlin can simply choose the 'controlling many little nation' option as the more economic and feasible instead of the 'propping forever a goverment that very few like' one.

Regarding the Freikorps, well against the Poles there was the motivation to defend your own country as it involved the division of the Polish corridor between Germany and Poland and IRC in the baltic states many of the Freikorps member joined with the intention of stay there due to the economic and political situation of Germany but more importantly any intervention in A-H will not be a single event but a long and tiring work as that nation without external help will simple disintegrate.
 
Next-door sure, vital...debatable; people in Berlin can simply choose the 'controlling many little nation' option as the more economic and feasible instead of the 'propping forever a goverment that very few like' one.

Regarding the Freikorps, well against the Poles there was the motivation to defend your own country as it involved the division of the Polish corridor between Germany and Poland and IRC in the baltic states many of the Freikorps member joined with the intention of stay there due to the economic and political situation of Germany but more importantly any intervention in A-H will not be a single event but a long and tiring work as that nation without external help will simple disintegrate.
Which smaller nations would they want to control? Bohemia-Moravia-Austria is too German to fall apart with Germans looking into it (unless they decide to annex it into 3-4 new provinces of Germany, I suppose), Galicia can be shifted to the Polish puppet if it's too hard on Austria, so you'd be looking at shattering Hungary more than anything, and Hungary alone can probably be nominally united and still a German puppet so why split it?
 
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