CP Victory in WW1...Fascist France and Hitler in Power in Austria-Hungary?

Hi, everyone. I'm new to this forum but not to a love of alternate history. If the question I'm asking has already been answered in another thread, please direct me to it.

Here's the scenario I'm proposing. In the late 1860s the American Civil War turns out differently due to some better choices by the Confederacy and a bit of luck, resulting in North America being split between the USA and CSA. This keeps a unified America out of the Great War in Europe. In 1918 Germany and the Central Powers win due to the lack of American involvement and a great result of German offensives that year. So in this timeline we have two POD--a Confederate win in the US circa 1864, which leads to a CP victory in 1918 and a German dominance of Europe. And before it comes up, yes I'm familiar with TL-191, Harry Turtledove's Southern Victory series. I've taken some ideas from that series but modified them a bit as I don't want the fascist CSA with the Hitler-esque president.

Now my questions revolve around what happens after 1918 and leading into the 1930s and 40s. I want to create a situation with an alternate WW2 where fascism develops in France similar to how it did in Germany in our timeline. I've looked at some possibilities where a France is bothered by the war reparations put on it by Germany, a military hero rises to power, fascism becomes the norm in French politics, and we have a "Germany before WW2" setting. I believe that this could happen, though France would be in a much different situation than Germany was in our TL. I've seen similar discussions on other alt-history sites that suggest France could go this direction after a CP victory.

I know that France wouldn't have the population or power to try and attack Germany on its own, especially after two relatively recent loses to Germany. So France will need allies. I would like to consider the possibility of Hitler coming to power in Austria-Hungary rather than Germany since he was Austrian. He would bring his radical beliefs, racism, and Aryan superiority, turning Austria-Hungary into a smaller version of our WW2 Germany. These developments would lead to an alliance between fascist France, Italy, and Hitler-run Austria-Hungary against Germany.

Now for the questions.....How plausible is the scenario that I outline in the last paragraph above? Even if it's implausible (but not impossible), what would need to happen in order for these events to come about, especially a rise to power of Hitler in Austria-Hungary? Is my thinking completely off-base?
 
In a CP victory scenario Hitler coming to power simply won't happen. Hitler was a nobody, and in a CP victory the older nobility and conservative classes will remain in power. The loss of the war, the hyperinflation of the early 1920s, and finally the depression shattered the "old order" in Germany which allowed for the rise of Hitler and the NSDAP. Hitler and the NSDAP might have some fringe appeal in a CP victory scenario, but taking power in Germany (he was Austrian anyways) not happening. In France, I'd expect more of a right wing ultramontane or royalist reaction.
 
France going hard right is doable due to the relatively unstable nature of the 3rd Republic. They even suffered from a Crisis in 1934 over the far right rebelling against the government at one point due to the election of the Popular Front. A France that feels either betrayed or pissed they didn't regain Alsace-Lorraine could possibly go that path given the right impetus. Your biggest issue is that the far right was often split between leagues with different ideas and other than a few of them, tended to not have mass popularity. They would likely also bring back a monarch due to that being popular on that front.

As for the Austro-Hungarian Empire, I cannot see them being a viable ally. I can't even see them surviving WWI, even with a victory. This is due to the hostile relations between the Austrians and Hungarians with the latter wanting more influence and power. You also had other ethnicities that would play for independence if they can get away with it. A better ally could be a defeated White Russia for France with a pissed Italy, but they would want to try and get other people into the group to encircle and beat Germany.

@sloreck explained why Hitler's a non-starter, but let me add another thing: he would not feel betrayed and angry if Germany won. He'd probably stay in the Reichswehr until he drifted to do something else.
 
Italy doesn't sound like a plausible ally for France and Austria-Hungary; it's going to have territorial disputes with the latter (and maybe even with the former).

Austria-Hungary is probably going to collapse. If it does survive, it could plausibly have someone in power who shares many ideas and modes of behavior with the Nazis. But Hitler himself - nah, not really. Overt German supremacism wouldn't fly in Austria-Hungary; the ideology would need to be scaled down to a kind of imperialism and ultranationalism which is at least formally multi-ethnic (if maybe still German-dominated). Something less along the lines of Nazi Germany and more like a right-wing USSR, or like the CUP-governed late Ottoman Empire.
 
I assumed Italy with the idea that Austria Hungary falls apart; in that situation, they'd be much more worthwhile as a partner in that situation. Still, France needs a stronger set of alliances to beat a victorious Germany I'd say, or at the very least play smarter with what they have.
 
Poland and Romania are the natural fascist allies to France. A victorious CP is likely to cause lots of ethnic resentment and territorial grievances for the Poles that the French might be all too happy to support. Britain would be between a rock and a hard place, but might be more sympathetic to a Fascist, especially if Germany had successfully humiliated the Royal Navy locally or abroad enough to blow the blockade open and conversely to partially starve Britain.
 
Isn't the obvious choice a Fascist Russia, which has an economy that outperforms the USSR, and kicks the crap out of a sclerotic, ugly German Empire?
 

Isaac Beach

Banned
Well I made a map once where the premise was that the Bolsheviks refuse the Treaty of Brest-Livotsk -which nearly happened OTL- and subsequently get rolled over by the Central Powers and ultimately destroyed which would leave a vacuum for fascists or Whites or even Mensheviks to fill. In my scenario they reinstalled a puppet Tsar but that could easily be subsumed by a Russian Hitler or any number of alternatives; there's really a lot of flexibility with Russia.
As for Austro-Hungary collapsing, that's quite likely but what about a fascist Hungary? If the collapse is particularly bloody and if Hungary holds onto it's Slovak, Romanian, Croatian and Serbian lands I could conceivably see a fascistic demagogue rallying the people around an anti-Slav, anti-Romanian and anti-German policy. Which is the natural ally of a fascistic or other hard-right France and shouldn't have any problems with Mussolini's Italy. So you'd get a big Germany including Austria and their Mitteleuropan alliance against France, Hungary, Italy and possibly Russia. I imagine in that scenario, unless their defeat was particularly humiliating, Britain would come down on the German side.
 
As for Austro-Hungary collapsing, that's quite likely but what about a fascist Hungary? If the collapse is particularly bloody and if Hungary holds onto it's Slovak, Romanian, Croatian and Serbian lands I could conceivably see a fascistic demagogue rallying the people around an anti-Slav, anti-Romanian and anti-German policy. Which is the natural ally of a fascistic or other hard-right France and shouldn't have any problems with Mussolini's Italy. So you'd get a big Germany including Austria and their Mitteleuropan alliance against France, Hungary, Italy and possibly Russia. I imagine in that scenario, unless their defeat was particularly humiliating, Britain would come down on the German side.

The type of Greater Hungary you are talking about here is a country where Hungarians barely make up a majority, and that is without counting Croatia. It would take miracles for it to keep Transleithania.
 
Hi, everyone. I'm new to this forum but not to a love of alternate history. If the question I'm asking has already been answered in another thread, please direct me to it.

Here's the scenario I'm proposing. In the late 1860s the American Civil War turns out differently due to some better choices by the Confederacy and a bit of luck, resulting in North America being split between the USA and CSA. This keeps a unified America out of the Great War in Europe. In 1918 Germany and the Central Powers win due to the lack of American involvement and a great result of German offensives that year. So in this timeline we have two POD--a Confederate win in the US circa 1864, which leads to a CP victory in 1918 and a German dominance of Europe. And before it comes up, yes I'm familiar with TL-191, Harry Turtledove's Southern Victory series. I've taken some ideas from that series but modified them a bit as I don't want the fascist CSA with the Hitler-esque president.

Before anything else, I have to say that there is a fifty year period between a speculative CSA victory in 1964. and the start of WWI in 1914. Such a massive change in the timeline (CSA existance) prety much rules out any possibility that WWI will happen they way it did in our timeline, and indeed the CSA existing casts doubt on whether WWI will even happen at all. This isn`t even counting the fact that a CSA victory itself is extremely unlikely without foreign (more specifically British) intervention in the American Civil War.

But lets go with the scenario as outlined in the OP.

I know that France wouldn't have the population or power to try and attack Germany on its own, especially after two relatively recent loses to Germany. So France will need allies. I would like to consider the possibility of Hitler coming to power in Austria-Hungary rather than Germany since he was Austrian. He would bring his radical beliefs, racism, and Aryan superiority, turning Austria-Hungary into a smaller version of our WW2 Germany. These developments would lead to an alliance between fascist France, Italy, and Hitler-run Austria-Hungary against Germany.

Now for the questions.....How plausible is the scenario that I outline in the last paragraph above? Even if it's implausible (but not impossible), what would need to happen in order for these events to come about, especially a rise to power of Hitler in Austria-Hungary? Is my thinking completely off-base?

A CP victory in 1918. means one of two things for Austria-Hungary: collapse or becoming a German protectorate in all but name. If WWI lasts into 1918. and vaguely resembles the war fought in our timeline, the course of the war had eroded the foundations of the Austro-Hungarian state so much that it will stay bound to its alliance with Germany as it is basically its only lifeline.

Likewise, Italy and France, even combined, will be far too weak to challenge Germany after both had suffered a defeat in WWI. For any realistic chance of challenging Germany here you need to have Russia on board, which also doesn`t exactly guarantee victory against a German Empire that won WWI.
 
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In a CP victory scenario Hitler coming to power simply won't happen. Hitler was a nobody, and in a CP victory the older nobility and conservative classes will remain in power. The loss of the war, the hyperinflation of the early 1920s, and finally the depression shattered the "old order" in Germany which allowed for the rise of Hitler and the NSDAP. Hitler and the NSDAP might have some fringe appeal in a CP victory scenario, but taking power in Germany (he was Austrian anyways) not happening. In France, I'd expect more of a right wing ultramontane or royalist reaction.

Agreed. And it is also questionable if such movements, even if victorious in France, would be as bent at waging war at all costs like Hitler was.
 
Well I made a map once where the premise was that the Bolsheviks refuse the Treaty of Brest-Livotsk -which nearly happened OTL- and subsequently get rolled over by the Central Powers and ultimately destroyed which would leave a vacuum for fascists or Whites or even Mensheviks to fill. In my scenario they reinstalled a puppet Tsar but that could easily be subsumed by a Russian Hitler or any number of alternatives; there's really a lot of flexibility with Russia.
As for Austro-Hungary collapsing, that's quite likely but what about a fascist Hungary? If the collapse is particularly bloody and if Hungary holds onto it's Slovak, Romanian, Croatian and Serbian lands I could conceivably see a fascistic demagogue rallying the people around an anti-Slav, anti-Romanian and anti-German policy. Which is the natural ally of a fascistic or other hard-right France and shouldn't have any problems with Mussolini's Italy. So you'd get a big Germany including Austria and their Mitteleuropan alliance against France, Hungary, Italy and possibly Russia. I imagine in that scenario, unless their defeat was particularly humiliating, Britain would come down on the German side.

Oh this has potential, lots of potential.
 
Now for the questions.....How plausible is the scenario that I outline in the last paragraph above? Even if it's implausible (but not impossible), what would need to happen in order for these events to come about, especially a rise to power of Hitler in Austria-Hungary? Is my thinking completely off-base?

Setting aside everything else, Hitler was born in 1889, 25ish years after the POD. Even a year before would butterfly Hitler out of existence. With a POD so far back his parents might not...well you know. If Alois Hitler's second wife doesn't die when she does they don't marry. Klara's only five or so by the POD, so she might simply die before reaching adulthood. Or this TL's version of Adolf Hitler dies like 4 of his 5 siblings.
 

Isaac Beach

Banned
The type of Greater Hungary you are talking about here is a country where Hungarians barely make up a majority, and that is without counting Croatia. It would take miracles for it to keep Transleithania.

Admittedly, maybe they could get the slavs on board whilst throwing the Romanians and Jews under the bus. There's lots of flexibility with a fascist Hungary.
 
Isn't the obvious choice a Fascist Russia, which has an economy that outperforms the USSR, and kicks the crap out of a sclerotic, ugly German Empire?

That would help greatly, though with Brest-Litovsk enforced Russia wouldn't have Ukraine or Belarus or parts of the Caucasus, and they'd be very much the weaker for it-no Baku oil, no Ukrainian wheat, etc. I suppose Russia could have its own variants of anschluss, but still.

As for Austro-Hungary collapsing, that's quite likely but what about a fascist Hungary? If the collapse is particularly bloody and if Hungary holds onto it's Slovak, Romanian, Croatian and Serbian lands I could conceivably see a fascistic demagogue rallying the people around an anti-Slav, anti-Romanian and anti-German policy. Which is the natural ally of a fascistic or other hard-right France and shouldn't have any problems with Mussolini's Italy.

Maybe it's just me, but greater Hungary has always seemed a more natural candidate for the German camp. If the collapse of A-H was bloody Hungary would probably need German help to hold its lands together-it has huge minority populations that could easily count on outside help (Romania, first and foremost) but for the threat of the German army. Hungary could still be a fairly nasty regime, but its difficult to imagine a hostile greater Hungary surviving next to the German Empire. Plus with Hungary on the German side an anti-German fascist Romania seems entirely plausible, and historically the Romanian fascists were an exceptionally nasty bunch.
 
That would help greatly, though with Brest-Litovsk enforced Russia wouldn't have Ukraine or Belarus or parts of the Caucasus, and they'd be very much the weaker for it-no Baku oil, no Ukrainian wheat, etc. I suppose Russia could have its own variants of anschluss, but still.

Much of the German leadership thought that - if and when they overthrow the Bolsheviks and replace them with a right-wing regime - they should shove Ukraine back into Russia. As well as Belarus, which Brest-Litovsk didn't even really separate, in theory. So the western borders of Russia might not necessarily be the problem.

The problem, I think, would be in the Caucasian and eastern borders - it's hard to imagine this puppet government managing to extend its reach even as far east as the Urals. It may have to co-exist with an Entente-backed alternative Russian government and who knows what else in the east.

And the biggest problem is, this Russia may be fascist (or rather fascistoid-reactionary - by 1918 the list of potential German collaborators largely consists of Black Hundreds and their fellow travelers); but it will be born as a German ally (puppet). How is it going to break away from German hegemony and reach a position where it can practice an independent and revisionist foreign policy ?
Maybe it's just me, but greater Hungary has always seemed a more natural candidate for the German camp. If the collapse of A-H was bloody Hungary would probably need German help to hold its lands together-it has huge minority populations that could easily count on outside help (Romania, first and foremost) but for the threat of the German army. Hungary could still be a fairly nasty regime, but its difficult to imagine a hostile greater Hungary surviving next to the German Empire. Plus with Hungary on the German side an anti-German fascist Romania seems entirely plausible, and historically the Romanian fascists were an exceptionally nasty bunch.

A fascist Romania is quite possible. The Junimist dictatorship installed by the CP is guaranteed to massively inflame both nationalist passions and social unrest with its quirks; a perfect environment for Codreanu or someone like him. In OTL, he had a relatively popular party; in this scenario, he could easily have a vast mass movement.

Of course, there's still the same problem - how to disentangle Romania from Germany's sphere.
 
I think we should examine all pieces separate.

France - humiliated and weakened even more - if really wanting a fight needs a huge band of allies to actually and finally take the fight back to Germany.
Italy will only keep clashing with A-H, unless it blows up; to get it in the anti-German camp you'd have to make it a winner, not a loser, of WW1 so that it now has to defend its own sphere of influence from it like it happened OTL up to the Ethiopian War. Maybe, if the war goes slightly better for Italy, A-H implodes anyways and Italy only gets Trentino and minor adjustments near Gorizia - thus sparking some friction over still unsatisfying borders and betrayed alliances.
The remainder of the ex-Austria-Hungary and the Balkan area is unlikely to provide any meaningful assistance at all; they'll be a lot more under the German influence and, while to a certain degree sympathetic, not interested in pissing off the giant near them. And united Austria-Hungary, unless you basically give them near-ASB levels of competence, is not gonna be a strong enough contender anytime soon.
This leaves off only the usual arch-enemy, Russia - it plus France and the above-outlined Italy, with some help from concerned Northern Europe countries, can work to contain Germany. But really, there is the reason why the UK fought so hard in WW1 to prevent German domination - if they play a decently smart game post-victory (and there is no reason to think the Kaiser wouldn't have done that), they can simply entrench themselves on a nigh-unassailable position on the Continent. (And left unspoken there's the fact they are in a good position to actually restart their escalation against the RN, and maybe even win it this time.)
 
A fascist dictatorship France would probably form and, like OTL Germany, would probably react to the Great Depression with anti-German hate rhetoric. Fascist dictatorships need an ultimate nationalistic goal for the people to unite in support of - the Nazis used hatred of Jews and desire for their lands lost after World War I; Italy used dissatisfaction at the result of World War I and a desire for a new Roman Empire of sorts. Fascist France would probably use anti-German hatred and desire to take back Alsace and Lorraine from the victorious German Empire. It's assumed that in this timeline Austria-Hungary would also be a victor, which means that fascist France would likely direct their animosity toward "Germans" in general, including those of Austria.

In the First World War, by the way, the collapse of the Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman Empires was pretty much inevitable. Ethnic tensions were too high, and these empires too outclassed technologically, economically and socially by their enemies. Thus, it's likely that, in the aftermath of the First World War, even if the Central Powers pulled out a victory, the Austro-Hungarian Empire would still see some amount of collapse. Slavic populations in their southern provinces would continue the fight for independence even after Serbia's defeat in the war, with Serbia's partial or complete annexation by Austria-Hungary and Bulgaria perhaps even intensifying the push for independence and a pan-Slavic nation. Austria-Hungary would spend much of the 1920s in economic collapse and social unrest as they fought ethnic rebellions of Slavic populations in the south. This might intensify to such a point that Hungary leaves this union, or even full-blown revolution. The socioeconomic landscape following this, combined with the Great Depression, sets the stage for some sort of fascist dictatorship, perhaps under the Emperor (like how Italy was ruled by Mussolini as well as the King). Adolf Hitler would not come to power, even in this landscape, because he based his seizure of power on anger at the French and British over the Treaty of Versailles as much as he did nationalism and Antisemitism. Thus, Austria-Hungary would end up a fascist dictatorship of some sort (or, going to the other extreme, a Communist dictatorship - maybe permanent revolution works out in this timeline). Germany would probably take a while to recover economically after the war, and they would likely fight different revolts and revolutions like they did in OTL - for instance, Communist and republican revolts, as well as student movements, etc. I'm not sure whether they would turn out okay or not - you could go with their survival as is, or as a constitutional monarchy, or a democratic republic, a fascist dictatorship, or even a Communist or socialist state.

Nevertheless, while defeat means probable fascist takeovers in France and Italy (probably not Britain, though), I find it highly unlikely that fascist France would align themselves with Austria-Hungary against Germany, mainly because of the anti-German rhetoric that the French fascists would use to gain their support. They wouldn't be able to reconcile the fact that they were allied with an ideological and racial enemy that they were a Switzerland away from sharing a border with. Germany and Japan could align despite Nazi racial policy because they weren't in proximity and so their activities did not directly impact the other in any meaningful way.
 
In the First World War, by the way, the collapse of the Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman Empires was pretty much inevitable. Ethnic tensions were too high, and these empires too outclassed technologically, economically and socially by their enemies. Thus, it's likely that, in the aftermath of the First World War, even if the Central Powers pulled out a victory, the Austro-Hungarian Empire would still see some amount of collapse. Slavic populations in their southern provinces would continue the fight for independence.

When had the Croats ever been "fighting for independence"? They would certainly have preferred to be separated from Hungary, but they don't seem to have had any particular quarrel with Austria (let alone Germany). And their relations with the Serbs are such that the two are most unlikely to make common cause.

Given that their flirting with the Ukrainians has alienated to Poles from the Monarchy, they may at some point have to let Galicia go. But that would not be a fatal loss to the Monarchy, and indeed might even strengthen it by leaving the Austrian half with a comfortable German majority.
 
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