CP Victory Aftermath

I think the first point to be noted is that the peace between GB and the Central Powers would be a negotiated one. Likely, Belgium is restored without issue in exchange for return of the colonies. Germany was willing to offer the same OTL and the British would not care enough about any African colonies to deny such a trade. I could also see a negotiated reparation payment for Belgium, that both sides would try to portray as their magnanimity. Far harder would be to gain the Pacific colonies back, Japan would likely get to retain some. It would be hard to compel them to just give everything back, some kind of concession would likely be needed for them to return their prices.

Russia: I have troubles seeing the White Forces not winning in a CP victory scenario. The direct neighbors would have a great interest in stopping the red forces from winning. Considering how even Poland was able to beat back Soviet Russia in that timeframe OTL, I would cast serious doubts on any scenario that has the White forces losing with Germany, A-H and likely even British support. The end result would likely be a monarchy in a similar vein like the one in Germany or A-H, a powerful monarch with a parliament and democratic elements. There are two ways this can then continue. Either you go the revanche route or conciliation. In both situations Russia would likely need time to rebuild and without the massively important regions they would have lost through Brest-Litvosk, they would need time to even get back to pre-WW1 levels.
For a second round, Russia would need allies. The same participants as OTL WW1 would be the first on the list. At least Italy would likely jump at any military alliance with such goals and anything really that would bring it out of the persona non grata situation the Central Powers would put it in. For France, it is harder to see them itching for another round, with having paid one of the highest blood tools in the war, there would be little interest in going for it again. More likely, the British would try to continue their better relationship with Russia. If a second round is the goal, I could see Russia going in a similar direction as OTL Germany. Anti-Semitism was rampant there, and nationalistic fervor would be nothing new. Not nazis per se, or anything close to it. But a Right-Wing Dictatorship.
Conciliation would essentially lead to a recreating of the Three-Emperor-Alliance. Russia would likely be put towards focusing more on its Asian territories and put into conflict regarding China, Afghanistan or Korea.

Italy: They would get the full brunt of the hatred of the Central Powers. A complete persona-non-grata on a diplomatic level and treated in such a manner. Every petty insult or treatment that you could imagine could happen. Essentially, seen as the traitor of the victorious alliance and given no quarter or outreaching hand to come back into the fold. If they don't turn to fascism or something similar, I would be surprised. On a foreign level similar to Germany in OTL, first likely better relations with one of the other losers of the war, either Russia or France. Depending on which of them would actively try to reverse their treaties or is antagonistic to the CPs. The final result could be a Triple Alliance between FR-RU-IT or just a Steel Pact with either Russia or the Gallic brother France. Overall, Italy would have a horrible standing from prestige to reliability.

France: Having paid one of the highest blood tolls from the Great Powers, France would be reeling from another loss against the "archenemy" in such a short time. After the - let's call it what it was - purges following the Dreyfus crisis, I have a hard time seeing any kind of monarchist uprising happening in France. With the OPs declaring for his scenario, that the moderates will remain in power and no right or left putsch is going to happen, France will have a worse interwar period than OTL. From a political side, I would say the Socialists would follow a similar role as the SPD did for Weimar. One of the pillars of the state and overall work towards a reconciliation for eternal peace in Europe. After unification and under Bismarck there was a period of cooperation between FR and GER, Weimar had some similar events and I doubt that France would not have statesmen from a similar caliber as Stresemann. If Germany would reciprocate or make use of such attempts, is of course a different beast. Their worst relations would likely be with the British, who would get accusations of having abandoned France and not fought like them etc.
Their colonies would be a serious strain on their resources, and the OTL wars they had to fight to have them remain would likely take longer or be even more brutally fought. I tend towards the former as the more likely scenario. Maybe they will even sell some or give them in exchange for treaty alleviation or as guaranty for payments.

A-H: The victory would grant the new Emperor great prestige and with the reforms already started before the war started, I have problems seeing it going in any other direction. The biggest stopping block for easing up on the nationalities was the Hungarian part, but after the nationalistic block failed to deliver on their promises, the way forward was already looking better. I doubt they would make a 180 turn and go back to repression. Cross nationality parties were on the up and without the complete crumbling of authority and military breakdown, there is no sign of the ethnicities starting some war to split the Habsburg Empire up. Every part of the empire wanted reform, not destruction or revolution. And it is highly likely that would happen. A perfect compromise from the get-go, not likely, but progress? Most definitely. Frankly, it is ludicrous to suggest it would crumble. Every successor state in that region was worse off and even ardent Czech separatists would look back in the interwar years and acknowledge that it was better before. The story of A-H being the next sick man of Europe is utter nonsense, and anyone postulating it has no idea what he or she or them is talking about.
As the second most powerful victor, they would demand a say in the future of Europe. In OTL there were already long discussions about every scenario for Poland and other territories. Germany would not get its way all the time and would have to make concessions. Essentially giving A-H a part of the pie. With Italy beaten, they get their say in Albania and the Adria will be their turf. The relations between these two states will be hostile and I don't think there will be even an attempt made to change that. To emancipate and lower German influence, A-H would likely try to improve their relations to old allies like Britain or the new Russia. Also, on the Balkan they would likely be a consistent and strong ally of Bulgaria. As the only state without any territorial aspirations on their land, it is a natural partnership, that would mostly be harmed by the common Austrian-Hungarian arrogance in regard to minor players. But maybe learned something...doubt it but hope never dies.

Germany: The big winner and undisputed hegemon on the continent. Their economic power would allow them to create an informal empire in the newly created states and further expand into the OTE. In combination with their plans for a bigger economic block, it could easily cement an economic block stronger than anything else at the time. If the Mitteleuropa plan would come into reality, depends on the circumstances. You would need concessions to the other nations that you want to join up with the exception of the newly created Eastern ones. They would not get a say, initially.
It could easily be that the CP would be turned into an actual military alliance with the eternal Dual-Alliance at its core. Bulgaria should be a near certainty to be added to the Dual-Alliance, similarly to the way Romania was once added or asa revival of the Triple Alliance with Bulgaria taking Italy's place. The OTE would share its place as a target of investments with the newly created eastern countries. Britain and Germany would likely compete towards economic projects there, but Germany should get some primary thanks to being a former ally.
On an internal level, the victory would increase the prestige of the army and ensure their utter primacy compared to the navy. They literally proved near completely worthless in the eyes of the people. With the U-boot being the major exception, they would likely be the future mainstay of the navy. For Prussia, the reform of the elective system was already in the making and discussed for a long-time. It was coming, just the details were in discussions. With such a boost to prestige and the proponents of a "Siegfrieden" vindicated, the chances for the conservative proposal to pass higher than for the other option. They had the House of Lords and the parliamentary majority on their side, add-on nationalistic feelings in regard to a victory, and they would likely carry through.
Finally, Germany could turn towards military dictatorship in line with the many other that existed in the OTL interwar-era or a slow process of reform continues. With the parliament slowly gaining more rights till they hit a maximum and an unsteady balance would exist. Or things continue as was before.

OTE: The victory should allow them to continue the path towards a stable future instead of crumbling into nothing. As a prime target for investment and with direct control of many regions that hold the black gold, there are paths open for a better future. If it goes that way, is not a given. But the chances are better than before.

Bulgaria: The new big kid on the block. Bulgaria would gain what they desired and maybe more. New territory, reparations and weaker frightenend neighbours would allow them to exert an amount of influence they had never had before. As part of the victors and likely a future partner of them, they would receive economic support as much as A-H or Germany can stomache. While being the least developed of the three European powers, they would profit from the downturn of their neighbours. Depending on when the war would end, all Balkan nations could be in a worse position compared to them. Serbia is finished either way, but Greece and Romania could also end up on the chopping block depending on if the the POD would allow asure the change or not. Regardless, both would face a Bulgaria strenghtened compared to the Balkan wars. Conflict would likely be in the future ahead, either as a revanche or because Bulgaria wants more. With CP support, I think they would get what they desire and at least A-H would be standing behind them.

Greece: Depends on war entry or staying neutral. If they entered war, they lose the lands Bulgaria wanted. The king would go out of this scenario smelling like roses, he was proven utterly fucking right and Venizelos wrong. If they stayed neutral, they would keep their lands but Venizelos was still proven wrong. His party would lose the next election and Greece would try to regain German favor. With the familial connection some German support should allow them to stop Bulgarian ambitions from turning things ugly for some time. Still the Balkan would remain a powderkeg and I think Metaxa would still come to power.

Serbia: Horrific, is a nice term for their fate. For all the blood lost they have nothing to show. A-H would not try to annex it, the supporters of this idea were always a minority and after that war they would not want to bear the cost of restoring it. Famine, death, anarchy. The country would be devastated and no support or anything would be provided to help them out nor other regions to exploit. It will be a non-factor for a decade, if not more. Constant troubles and bad things happening inside its borders.

Britain: Business as usual. The Irish War of Independence would still happen. Their Empire would still exist and the diplomatic game would start anew. I think relations with France would be the worst by far. Considering they would not be a loser just not the ultimate victor of the war, they could shoulder the aftermath. I don't see big upheavals coming their way. Maybe try to establish their own alliance or sow discord in the victorious one by competing with Germany in OTE, Bulgaria and Russia. Or align closer with A-H in the Mediteranean against Italy or just to strenghten the position of A-H compared to Germany.
Another possibility is a closer alignment to the US or with Japan. Either way their more independent parts of the Empire will likely want to have a word with them regarding some changes.

I think the first point to be noted is that the peace between GB and the Central Powers would be a negotiated one. Likely, Belgium is restored without issue in exchange for return of the colonies. Germany was willing to offer the same OTL and the British would not care enough about any African colonies to deny such a trade. I could also see a negotiated reparation payment for Belgium, that both sides would try to portray as their magnanimity. Far harder would be to gain the Pacific colonies back, Japan would likely get to retain some. It would be hard to compel them to just give everything back, some kind of concession would likely be needed for them to return their prices.

Russia: I have troubles seeing the White Forces not winning in a CP victory scenario. The direct neighbors would have a great interest in stopping the red forces from winning. Considering how even Poland was able to beat back Soviet Russia in that timeframe OTL, I would cast serious doubts on any scenario that has the White forces losing with Germany, A-H and likely even British support. The end result would likely be a monarchy in a similar vein like the one in Germany or A-H, a powerful monarch with a parliament and democratic elements. There are two ways this can then continue. Either you go the revanche route or conciliation. In both situations Russia would likely need time to rebuild and without the massively important regions they would have lost through Brest-Litvosk, they would need time to even get back to pre-WW1 levels.
For a second round, Russia would need allies. The same participants as OTL WW1 would be the first on the list. At least Italy would likely jump at any military alliance with such goals and anything really that would bring it out of the persona non grata situation the Central Powers would put it in. For France, it is harder to see them itching for another round, with having paid one of the highest blood tools in the war, there would be little interest in going for it again. More likely, the British would try to continue their better relationship with Russia. If a second round is the goal, I could see Russia going in a similar direction as OTL Germany. Anti-Semitism was rampant there, and nationalistic fervor would be nothing new. Not nazis per se, or anything close to it. But a Right-Wing Dictatorship.
Conciliation would essentially lead to a recreating of the Three-Emperor-Alliance. Russia would likely be put towards focusing more on its Asian territories and put into conflict regarding China, Afghanistan or Korea.

Italy: They would get the full brunt of the hatred of the Central Powers. A complete persona-non-grata on a diplomatic level and treated in such a manner. Every petty insult or treatment that you could imagine could happen. Essentially, seen as the traitor of the victorious alliance and given no quarter or outreaching hand to come back into the fold. If they don't turn to fascism or something similar, I would be surprised. On a foreign level similar to Germany in OTL, first likely better relations with one of the other losers of the war, either Russia or France. Depending on which of them would actively try to reverse their treaties or is antagonistic to the CPs. The final result could be a Triple Alliance between FR-RU-IT or just a Steel Pact with either Russia or the Gallic brother France. Overall, Italy would have a horrible standing from prestige to reliability.

France: Having paid one of the highest blood tolls from the Great Powers, France would be reeling from another loss against the "archenemy" in such a short time. After the - let's call it what it was - purges following the Dreyfus crisis, I have a hard time seeing any kind of monarchist uprising happening in France. With the OPs declaring for his scenario, that the moderates will remain in power and no right or left putsch is going to happen, France will have a worse interwar period than OTL. From a political side, I would say the Socialists would follow a similar role as the SPD did for Weimar. One of the pillars of the state and overall work towards a reconciliation for eternal peace in Europe. After unification and under Bismarck there was a period of cooperation between FR and GER, Weimar had some similar events and I doubt that France would not have statesmen from a similar caliber as Stresemann. If Germany would reciprocate or make use of such attempts, is of course a different beast. Their worst relations would likely be with the British, who would get accusations of having abandoned France and not fought like them etc.
Their colonies would be a serious strain on their resources, and the OTL wars they had to fight to have them remain would likely take longer or be even more brutally fought. I tend towards the former as the more likely scenario. Maybe they will even sell some or give them in exchange for treaty alleviation or as guaranty for payments.

A-H: The victory would grant the new Emperor great prestige and with the reforms already started before the war started, I have problems seeing it going in any other direction. The biggest stopping block for easing up on the nationalities was the Hungarian part, but after the nationalistic block failed to deliver on their promises, the way forward was already looking better. I doubt they would make a 180 turn and go back to repression. Cross nationality parties were on the up and without the complete crumbling of authority and military breakdown, there is no sign of the ethnicities starting some war to split the Habsburg Empire up. Every part of the empire wanted reform, not destruction or revolution. And it is highly likely that would happen. A perfect compromise from the get-go, not likely, but progress? Most definitely. Frankly, it is ludicrous to suggest it would crumble. Every successor state in that region was worse off and even ardent Czech separatists would look back in the interwar years and acknowledge that it was better before. The story of A-H being the next sick man of Europe is utter nonsense, and anyone postulating it has no idea what he or she or them is talking about.
As the second most powerful victor, they would demand a say in the future of Europe. In OTL there were already long discussions about every scenario for Poland and other territories. Germany would not get its way all the time and would have to make concessions. Essentially giving A-H a part of the pie. With Italy beaten, they get their say in Albania and the Adria will be their turf. The relations between these two states will be hostile and I don't think there will be even an attempt made to change that. To emancipate and lower German influence, A-H would likely try to improve their relations to old allies like Britain or the new Russia. Also, on the Balkan they would likely be a consistent and strong ally of Bulgaria. As the only state without any territorial aspirations on their land, it is a natural partnership, that would mostly be harmed by the common Austrian-Hungarian arrogance in regard to minor players. But maybe learned something...doubt it but hope never dies.

Germany: The big winner and undisputed hegemon on the continent. Their economic power would allow them to create an informal empire in the newly created states and further expand into the OTE. In combination with their plans for a bigger economic block, it could easily cement an economic block stronger than anything else at the time. If the Mitteleuropa plan would come into reality, depends on the circumstances. You would need concessions to the other nations that you want to join up with the exception of the newly created Eastern ones. They would not get a say, initially.
It could easily be that the CP would be turned into an actual military alliance with the eternal Dual-Alliance at its core. Bulgaria should be a near certainty to be added to the Dual-Alliance, similarly to the way Romania was once added or asa revival of the Triple Alliance with Bulgaria taking Italy's place. The OTE would share its place as a target of investments with the newly created eastern countries. Britain and Germany would likely compete towards economic projects there, but Germany should get some primary thanks to being a former ally.
On an internal level, the victory would increase the prestige of the army and ensure their utter primacy compared to the navy. They literally proved near completely worthless in the eyes of the people. With the U-boot being the major exception, they would likely be the future mainstay of the navy. For Prussia, the reform of the elective system was already in the making and discussed for a long-time. It was coming, just the details were in discussions. With such a boost to prestige and the proponents of a "Siegfrieden" vindicated, the chances for the conservative proposal to pass higher than for the other option. They had the House of Lords and the parliamentary majority on their side, add-on nationalistic feelings in regard to a victory, and they would likely carry through.
Finally, Germany could turn towards military dictatorship in line with the many other that existed in the OTL interwar-era or a slow process of reform continues. With the parliament slowly gaining more rights till they hit a maximum and an unsteady balance would exist. Or things continue as was before.

OTE: The victory should allow them to continue the path towards a stable future instead of crumbling into nothing. As a prime target for investment and with direct control of many regions that hold the black gold, there are paths open for a better future. If it goes that way, is not a given. But the chances are better than before.

Bulgaria: The new big kid on the block. Bulgaria would gain what they desired and maybe more. New territory, reparations and weaker frightenend neighbours would allow them to exert an amount of influence they had never had before. As part of the victors and likely a future partner of them, they would receive economic support as much as A-H or Germany can stomache. While being the least developed of the three European powers, they would profit from the downturn of their neighbours. Depending on when the war would end, all Balkan nations could be in a worse position compared to them. Serbia is finished either way, but Greece and Romania could also end up on the chopping block depending on if the the POD would allow asure the change or not. Regardless, both would face a Bulgaria strenghtened compared to the Balkan wars. Conflict would likely be in the future ahead, either as a revanche or because Bulgaria wants more. With CP support, I think they would get what they desire and at least A-H would be standing behind them.

Greece: Depends on war entry or staying neutral. If they entered war, they lose the lands Bulgaria wanted. The king would go out of this scenario smelling like roses, he was proven utterly fucking right and Venizelos wrong. If they stayed neutral, they would keep their lands but Venizelos was still proven wrong. His party would lose the next election and Greece would try to regain German favor. With the familial connection some German support should allow them to stop Bulgarian ambitions from turning things ugly for some time. Still the Balkan would remain a powderkeg and I think Metaxa would still come to power.

Serbia: Horrific, is a nice term for their fate. For all the blood lost they have nothing to show. A-H would not try to annex it, the supporters of this idea were always a minority and after that war they would not want to bear the cost of restoring it. Famine, death, anarchy. The country would be devastated and no support or anything would be provided to help them out nor other regions to exploit. It will be a non-factor for a decade, if not more. Constant troubles and bad things happening inside its borders.

Britain: Business as usual. The Irish War of Independence would still happen. Their Empire would still exist and the diplomatic game would start anew. I think relations with France would be the worst by far. Considering they would not be a loser just not the ultimate victor of the war, they could shoulder the aftermath. I don't see big upheavals coming their way. Maybe try to establish their own alliance or sow discord in the victorious one by competing with Germany in OTE, Bulgaria and Russia. Or align closer with A-H in the Mediteranean against Italy or just to strenghten the position of A-H compared to Germany.
Another possibility is a closer alignment to the US or with Japan. Either way their more independent parts of the Empire will likely want to have a word with them regarding some changes.
Thanks for the reply. I agree with you that a peace between the Entente and the CP is likely to be negotiated. Germany recovers the colonies from her (in my TL the colonial war was harder for the allies) and Belgium and occupied France are liberated. Also, Germany possibly gains some colonies. I think the fate of the Pacific is uncertain, with Australia, capable of reaching a deal that, in the best of cases, means a recovery of German properties intact (I doubt this, so I am oriented rather by the recovery of New Guinea and some islands, even so, is very optimistic considering the circumstances) With Japan, it depends if the British push for an agreement or that determined Japan to keep everything occupied.

Now, for the fate of the main involved I was thinking the following, if you have any suggestions I would be grateful.

Germany: Undisputed power of Europe, victory in the war would give a lot of support to the conservatives, I doubt it will be enough to finish off the social democrats but it will be enough to calm the aristocrats. Possibly in the mid-20's an economic boom will begin to be seen, which will consolidate Germany as a world power together with the United Kingdom and the United States (in economic terms). I also see it as possible that the Germans will be encouraged to finish developing their colonies and despite that the navy would be discredited, I doubt it will be neglected. Perhaps at first the army will begin to introduce permanent tanks in the army(I understand that there were prototypes of tanks that did not come out due to defeat in the war) but in the long run, there is a possibility that there will be a stagnation, although knowing the Prussian officers, it may be that the German Army remains adapted to the new times.

United Kingdom: Although on the losing side, it would lose little. Possibly Labors will come to power before their time, but I don't think it will lead to anything serious. Ireland would continue as OTL and the Royal Navy would continue to rule the seas. Possibly there are colonial problems and I was thinking of a kind of Imperial Federation, in order to calm possible nationalist movements. They would seek to adapt to the new order, trying to balance themselves with Germany. Their economy would be affected by the war and the sale of assets would make them lose their financial position, but a economic disaster is unlikely, so they would recover in a short time.

France: One of the most affected by the defeat, they would maintain their territorial integrity in exchange for the concession of certain colonies. The moderate left would win the elections, but I doubt that they will be able to solve the economic problems, added to the probable existing social tension. I was thinking that during the early 1920s, a Right-wing party would develop, bringing together veterans and people disgusted with the defeat and present-day France. Its main figure would be Hurbert Lyautey (In my TL, he lasted longer in the Ministry of Defense and his work there made him more recognized than he already was) Something like the mid-1920s, this movement would come to power in the middle of the decade, after years of tension between the right and the left. Lyautey would be killed, fearing he was a second Boulanger, but ironically this will prompt the move from him. France would remain a right-wing authoritarian regime as long as I endured it. Possibly there will be profound reforms in the Army and the remaining colonies will be developed in order to make a profit. While this Regime would be nationalistic, it would also be somewhat defeatist, so I doubt they would seek to provoke Germany.

Russia: By far the most affected by the defeat. The whites would win and I am led to think that a Republic would be established, its economy would be devastated and disjointed but I believe that with the correct management and the necessary investments it could resurface. Possibly there is a strong revenge, which gave me the idea of articulating a "fascist" Russia for me TL. Possibly this revanchist movement gains strength at the beginning of the 30's and begins a strong militarization and industrialization. Although I doubt it will cause WWII, it has the potential to be a headache for the Germans. The only thing I lack would be a charismatic leader who can move the masses of this Russia.

Austria-Hungary: From what I have seen here, I came to the conclusion that A-H maintains, reforms and becomes the hegemony of the Balkans. Knowing Karl's attitude during the war, I have no doubt that the differences with Germany would be lacking and could lead to an improvement in Anglo-Austrian relations. But I doubt A-H wants to sideline Germany, unless something serious leads to that shift in foreign policy.

Ottoman Empire: I don't have much to say, just some revolts after the war and then the reform of the Ottoman State, oil will be a very valuable diplomatic weapon.
 
What would doom AH in a late victory, is the fact that by this point, the Austrians wanted to be Germans.
While IOTL that may have been largely true, a victory, even a late one, may have been sufficient to convince a majority of Austrians that they were just fine remaining Austrian, rather than constantly playing second fiddle to the Prussians inside an expanded German Empire....
 
Hello, I'm writing a scenario based in a CP Victory with a POD on Verdún, the details of the victory don't matter for now. It's a classical victory(maybe a cliche) where Germany regain his colonies and gain Belgian Congo, French Equatorial Africa and Brest-Livostk My question is how the european politics would develop? Will the losers more right authoritarian or will fall under red flags? Can the Germans avoid a resurgence of Russia? It's possible a WWII?
The POD does make a difference. If it is German victory at Verdun then Falkenhayn remains in charge of the Heer and the Third OHL is avoided. This has political consequences both internally and externally.
 
Thanks for the reply. I agree with you that a peace between the Entente and the CP is likely to be negotiated. Germany recovers the colonies from her (in my TL the colonial war was harder for the allies) and Belgium and occupied France are liberated. Also, Germany possibly gains some colonies. I think the fate of the Pacific is uncertain, with Australia, capable of reaching a deal that, in the best of cases, means a recovery of German properties intact (I doubt this, so I am oriented rather by the recovery of New Guinea and some islands, even so, is very optimistic considering the circumstances) With Japan, it depends if the British push for an agreement or that determined Japan to keep everything occupied.

Now, for the fate of the main involved I was thinking the following, if you have any suggestions I would be grateful.

Germany: Undisputed power of Europe, victory in the war would give a lot of support to the conservatives, I doubt it will be enough to finish off the social democrats but it will be enough to calm the aristocrats. Possibly in the mid-20's an economic boom will begin to be seen, which will consolidate Germany as a world power together with the United Kingdom and the United States (in economic terms). I also see it as possible that the Germans will be encouraged to finish developing their colonies and despite that the navy would be discredited, I doubt it will be neglected. Perhaps at first the army will begin to introduce permanent tanks in the army(I understand that there were prototypes of tanks that did not come out due to defeat in the war) but in the long run, there is a possibility that there will be a stagnation, although knowing the Prussian officers, it may be that the German Army remains adapted to the new times.

United Kingdom: Although on the losing side, it would lose little. Possibly Labors will come to power before their time, but I don't think it will lead to anything serious. Ireland would continue as OTL and the Royal Navy would continue to rule the seas. Possibly there are colonial problems and I was thinking of a kind of Imperial Federation, in order to calm possible nationalist movements. They would seek to adapt to the new order, trying to balance themselves with Germany. Their economy would be affected by the war and the sale of assets would make them lose their financial position, but a economic disaster is unlikely, so they would recover in a short time.

France: One of the most affected by the defeat, they would maintain their territorial integrity in exchange for the concession of certain colonies. The moderate left would win the elections, but I doubt that they will be able to solve the economic problems, added to the probable existing social tension. I was thinking that during the early 1920s, a Right-wing party would develop, bringing together veterans and people disgusted with the defeat and present-day France. Its main figure would be Hurbert Lyautey (In my TL, he lasted longer in the Ministry of Defense and his work there made him more recognized than he already was) Something like the mid-1920s, this movement would come to power in the middle of the decade, after years of tension between the right and the left. Lyautey would be killed, fearing he was a second Boulanger, but ironically this will prompt the move from him. France would remain a right-wing authoritarian regime as long as I endured it. Possibly there will be profound reforms in the Army and the remaining colonies will be developed in order to make a profit. While this Regime would be nationalistic, it would also be somewhat defeatist, so I doubt they would seek to provoke Germany.

Russia: By far the most affected by the defeat. The whites would win and I am led to think that a Republic would be established, its economy would be devastated and disjointed but I believe that with the correct management and the necessary investments it could resurface. Possibly there is a strong revenge, which gave me the idea of articulating a "fascist" Russia for me TL. Possibly this revanchist movement gains strength at the beginning of the 30's and begins a strong militarization and industrialization. Although I doubt it will cause WWII, it has the potential to be a headache for the Germans. The only thing I lack would be a charismatic leader who can move the masses of this Russia.

Austria-Hungary: From what I have seen here, I came to the conclusion that A-H maintains, reforms and becomes the hegemony of the Balkans. Knowing Karl's attitude during the war, I have no doubt that the differences with Germany would be lacking and could lead to an improvement in Anglo-Austrian relations. But I doubt A-H wants to sideline Germany, unless something serious leads to that shift in foreign policy.

Ottoman Empire: I don't have much to say, just some revolts after the war and then the reform of the Ottoman State, oil will be a very valuable diplomatic weapon.
A point to consider is that Australia was fearful or anxious about Japan. I read a book some time ago about their fear of the next "race war" with the "yellows" and how they hoped to gain British support through showcasing loyalty. The use of Germany as a buffer between them and Japan could be something they would consider useful. Maybe a possible out, if you want to have one.

Germany: The conservatives were not just aristocrats, but legitimate parties of the Reichstag. Most of them did only come around to a full-on Siegfrieden with time, they were more moderate than many think. It was the fringe right that supported and loudly proclaimed it, the Anti-Semites and the ADV most prominently. As stated before, electoral reform in Prussia was a foregone conclusion. Even the conservatives were on board with it, just instead of the 3-class system they would go with a census one. Plural voting, with some groups getting more than one vote was their dream goal. The SPD would still split, the differences were too big between the reformist and radical wings. Additionally, no common figure could emerge to unite them. I would see the reformist group go along the path the Center did in the Kaiserreich. Some Chancellor would work with them, some against them. In Imperial Germany, the SPD hit its zenith with around a third of the votes. With a split happening, it is doubtful if they would be able to increase or even regain that level of prominence.
But I doubt either the extreme right in the form of the colloquially called Anti-Semites nor the Conservatives would get close to an actual majority. You have to remember even the NSDAP did not get 50%+ even when they could use all measures imaginable. With prosperity, it is unlikely for the country to drift towards either extreme, the right or the left. The most likely candidate to take in the nationalistic fervor and populism would be the National Liberals and not the conservatives. I could see them riding this wave towards 25%+ of the votes with agreements made with other parties allowing them to take around 100 or more seats making them the biggest faction in the Reichstag.
A market increase in social reform would happen, with better protections for workers and further strengthening of the social security net that partly existed.
On an economic angle, the export empire would come into being early on. The new Eastern states would fall into the German sphere completely and be economically dependent on it, added to that is the OTE and the Balkans.
Regarding colonies, China would always be of interest. Too big a market to not be interested in. Maybe finding gold in New Guinea could help jumpstart something. But for the navy, I would say the Battle Fleet concept would face serious questioning and I could see Germany going all in on trade interdiction with a cruiser fleet.

GB: That the British Empire is so often made into an Imperial Federation is personally questionable to me, but to each their own. I don't quite see why it would turn into that direction when WW1 would take another course. India is simply too big and would under every fair system come to dominate the rest, I can't see Britain, Australia, Canada or any other region being willing or able to accept that. Britain would want to cut back on costs and have the Dominions shoulder a bigger part and I may be biased but I fail to see how the impetus would be given by a German victory to change things for them from OTL. Maybe the idea to create a counterweight to the German led economic block.

France: I don't see France moving towards a right-wing dictatorship. The military lost too obviously, and there is no nice "Dolchstoßlegende" they could rely upon to defend their honor. Additionally, after the Dreyfus process, the militarists and officers lost massively in reputation and standing in France. They lack the social standing and reputation to lead anything like that, and then comes the "stench of losing", it is hard to see someone hoodwinking the Grande Nation coming from that direction. Maybe in the form of an actual civil war? With the one in Spain being a catalyst. France offers support for the Republican forces, which are a mix of all, which would provoke the troops that already fought in the colonies. Another senseless war...and then the troops from the colonies could bring about a change, like Franco his troops from Morocco did in Spain.
Overall, France would not be in a good place. On the economic side they would face problems, the reparations would dip into their already diminished resources. Part of the country needs to be rebuilt, and the debt situation with Russia would or could be a stumbling block. Repayment would help France, but will a new Russia go for it? Without the patents they stole OTL and lack of funding, it will be harder to recover and take more time.

Russia: To be honest, I have troubles seeing the Whites being supported by the Central Powers going for a Republic. I would say either go for a later revolution that turns it into a Republic or a Metaxa or Mussolini style dictatorship. From the top of my head I would recommend Wrangel, Markov, Shkuro or have Punin survive to become important. Anti-semitism was already rampant in Russia before WW1 and pogroms commonplace. The Whites also inflicted some, most famously in Kiev. A revanchist Russia makes more sense to me than a France, mostly because they did not lose two times after another and can claim to have been outnumbered with a three front war.

A-H: Just as a reminder, a slower step-by-step path is more likely than instant results.
 
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A point to consider is that Australia was fearful or anxious about Japan. I read a book some time ago about their fear of the next "race war" with the "yellows" and how they hoped to gain British support through showcasing loyalty. The use of Germany as a buffer between them and Japan could be something they would consider useful. Maybe a possible out, if you want to have one.

Germany: The conservatives were not just aristocrats, but legitimate parties of the Reichstag. Most of them did only come around to a full-on Siegfrieden with time, they were more moderate than many think. It was the fringe right that supported and loudly proclaimed it, the Anti-Semites and the ADV most prominently. As stated before, electoral reform in Prussia was a foregone conclusion. Even the conservatives were on board with it, just instead of the 3-class system they would go with a census one. Plural voting, with some groups getting more than one vote was their dream goal. The SPD would still split, the differences were too big between the reformist and radical wings. Additionally, no common figure could emerge to unite them. I would see the reformist group go along the path the Center did in the Kaiserreich. Some Chancellor would work with them, some against them. In Imperial Germany, the SPD hit its zenith with around a third of the votes. With a split happening, it is doubtful if they would be able to increase or even regain that level of prominence.
But I doubt either the extreme right in the form of the colloquially called Anti-Semites nor the Conservatives would get close to an actual majority. You have to remember even the NSDAP did not get 50%+ even when they could use all measures imaginable. With prosperity, it is unlikely for the country to drift towards either extreme, the right or the left. The most likely candidate to take in the nationalistic fervor and populism would be the National Liberals and not the conservatives. I could see them riding this wave towards 25%+ of the votes with agreements made with other parties allowing them to take around 100 or more seats making them the biggest faction in the Reichstag.
A market increase in social reform would happen, with better protections for workers and further strengthening of the social security net that partly existed.
On an economic angle, the export empire would come into being early on. The new Eastern states would fall into the German sphere completely and be economically dependent on it, added to that is the OTE and the Balkans.
Regarding colonies, China would always be of interest. Too big a market to not be interested in. Maybe finding gold in New Guinea could help jumpstart something. But for the navy, I would say the Battle Fleet concept would face serious questioning and I could see Germany going all in on trade interdiction with a cruiser fleet.

GB: That the British Empire is so often made into an Imperial Federation is personally questionable to me, but to each their own. I don't quite see why it would turn into that direction when WW1 would take another course. India is simply too big and would under every fair system come to dominate the rest, I can't see Britain, Australia, Canada or any other region being willing or able to accept that. Britain would want to cut back on costs and have the Dominions shoulder a bigger part and I may be biased but I fail to see how the impetus would be given by a German victory to change things for them from OTL. Maybe the idea to create a counterweight to the German led economic block.

France: I don't see France moving towards a right-wing dictatorship. The military lost too obviously, and there is no nice "Dolchstoßlegende" they could rely upon to defend their honor. Additionally, after the Dreyfus process, the militarists and officers lost massively in reputation and standing in France. They lack the social standing and reputation to lead anything like that, and then comes the "stench of losing", it is hard to see someone hoodwinking the Grande Nation coming from that direction. Maybe in the form of an actual civil war? With the one in Spain being a catalyst. France offers support for the Republican forces, which are a mix of all, which would provoke the troops that already fought in the colonies. Another senseless war...and then the troops from the colonies could bring about a change, like Franco his troops from Morocco did in Spain.
Overall, France would not be in a good place. On the economic side they would face problems, the reparations would dip into their already diminished resources. Part of the country needs to be rebuilt, and the debt situation with Russia would or could be a stumbling block. Repayment would help France, but will a new Russia go for it? Without the patents they stole OTL and lack of funding, it will be harder to recover and take more time.

Russia: To be honest, I have troubles seeing the Whites being supported by the Central Powers going for a Republic. I would say either go for a later revolution that turns it into a Republic or a Metaxa or Mussolini style dictatorship. From the top of my head I would recommend Wrangel, Markov, Shkuro or have Punin survive to become important. Anti-semitism was already rampant in Russia before WW1 and pogroms commonplace. The Whites also inflicted some, most famously in Kiev. A revanchist Russia makes more sense to me than a France, mostly because they did not lose two times after another and can claim to have been outnumbered with a three front war.

A-H: Just as a reminder, a slower step-by-step path is more likely than instant results.
Thank you very much for the recommendations, I will take them into account for my TL.
 
A point to consider is that Australia was fearful or anxious about Japan. I read a book some time ago about their fear of the next "race war" with the "yellows" and how they hoped to gain British support through showcasing loyalty. The use of Germany as a buffer between them and Japan could be something they would consider useful. Maybe a possible out, if you want to have one.

Germany: The conservatives were not just aristocrats, but legitimate parties of the Reichstag. Most of them did only come around to a full-on Siegfrieden with time, they were more moderate than many think. It was the fringe right that supported and loudly proclaimed it, the Anti-Semites and the ADV most prominently. As stated before, electoral reform in Prussia was a foregone conclusion. Even the conservatives were on board with it, just instead of the 3-class system they would go with a census one. Plural voting, with some groups getting more than one vote was their dream goal. The SPD would still split, the differences were too big between the reformist and radical wings. Additionally, no common figure could emerge to unite them. I would see the reformist group go along the path the Center did in the Kaiserreich. Some Chancellor would work with them, some against them. In Imperial Germany, the SPD hit its zenith with around a third of the votes. With a split happening, it is doubtful if they would be able to increase or even regain that level of prominence.
But I doubt either the extreme right in the form of the colloquially called Anti-Semites nor the Conservatives would get close to an actual majority. You have to remember even the NSDAP did not get 50%+ even when they could use all measures imaginable. With prosperity, it is unlikely for the country to drift towards either extreme, the right or the left. The most likely candidate to take in the nationalistic fervor and populism would be the National Liberals and not the conservatives. I could see them riding this wave towards 25%+ of the votes with agreements made with other parties allowing them to take around 100 or more seats making them the biggest faction in the Reichstag.
A market increase in social reform would happen, with better protections for workers and further strengthening of the social security net that partly existed.
On an economic angle, the export empire would come into being early on. The new Eastern states would fall into the German sphere completely and be economically dependent on it, added to that is the OTE and the Balkans.
Regarding colonies, China would always be of interest. Too big a market to not be interested in. Maybe finding gold in New Guinea could help jumpstart something. But for the navy, I would say the Battle Fleet concept would face serious questioning and I could see Germany going all in on trade interdiction with a cruiser fleet.

GB: That the British Empire is so often made into an Imperial Federation is personally questionable to me, but to each their own. I don't quite see why it would turn into that direction when WW1 would take another course. India is simply too big and would under every fair system come to dominate the rest, I can't see Britain, Australia, Canada or any other region being willing or able to accept that. Britain would want to cut back on costs and have the Dominions shoulder a bigger part and I may be biased but I fail to see how the impetus would be given by a German victory to change things for them from OTL. Maybe the idea to create a counterweight to the German led economic block.

Francia: No veo a Francia avanzando hacia una dictadura de derecha. Los militares perdieron demasiado obviamente, y no hay una buena "Dolchstoßlegende" en la que puedan confiar para defender su honor. Además, después del proceso de Dreyfus, los militaristas y oficiales perdieron masivamente su reputación y prestigio en Francia. Carecen de la posición social y la reputación para liderar algo así, y luego viene el "olor a perder", es difícil ver a alguien engañando a la Gran Nación viniendo de esa dirección. ¿Quizás en la forma de una guerra civil real? Siendo el de España un catalizador. Francia ofrece apoyo a las fuerzas republicanas, que son una mezcla de todas, lo que provocaría a las tropas que ya combatieron en las colonias. Otra guerra sin sentido... y luego las tropas de las colonias podrían provocar un cambio,
En general, Francia no estaría en un buen lugar. En el aspecto económico enfrentarían problemas, las reparaciones echarían mano de sus ya disminuidos recursos. Hay que reconstruir una parte del país, y la situación de la deuda con Rusia sería o podría ser un escollo. El reembolso ayudaría a Francia, pero ¿lo aceptará una nueva Rusia? Sin las patentes que robaron OTL y la falta de financiación, será más difícil de recuperar y tomará más tiempo.
So in France, the most realistic thing would be an unstable Republic under moderates parties?
 
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What about the gold standard? Would Britain (and the World alongside it) return to it? If yes, then at what exchange rates? Pre-war?
 
A point to consider is that Australia was fearful or anxious about Japan. I read a book some time ago about their fear of the next "race war" with the "yellows" and how they hoped to gain British support through showcasing loyalty. The use of Germany as a buffer between them and Japan could be something they would consider useful. Maybe a possible out, if you want to have one.
The most obvious power for Australia to buddy up with isn’t Germany, which can never challenge Japan in the Pacific but the U ited States, which both can and has a reason to given their own territories. I see no real way for Germany to get Pacific territories back once Japan has seized them, nor stable bases they can gain that would hold off Japanese attack in future.

An alliance with America will probably mean antipathy for Germany given German interests in Central and South America.
 
No absolutely, it's a very intelligent idea...but frankly make your point about the few deserter a thing, well let's say incorrect.

Well first there i certain level of difference between some level of legitimate paranoia in time of war and the fact that A-H armed forces were forced to cheat and rob to found some money for their budget because one side of the empire doesn't want the army too strong or want to have leverage and no, not even with the money she will have performed well as Germany, it was an army more geared towards internal security and brief operations and without German great support will have not lasted as much during OTL war. What i said is that there was a specific reason why there were so little deserter to their own nationalities in the A-H army and great loyalty towards the nation was not really the biggest.


Well, first the Magyar and the Czech want to have some words with you and hello, the war has not been so brief that they are not that relevant and at them now you need to add the socialist/communist and the general loss of faith in the enstablishment.


Cheap humor will not change the fact that the war will cause immense social and economic trouble and frankly the A-H as a nation is totally unequipped to deal with that.



It's more implied and assumed from the post and yes i re-read it and frankly it simply ignore and belittle any nationalist sentiment and effort giving as only real reason that A-H collapsed the fact that she lost the war and the entente breack it up (external factor)
You honestly look quite biased, mate; Just stating the same arguments over and over
 
The most obvious power for Australia to buddy up with isn’t Germany, which can never challenge Japan in the Pacific but the U ited States, which both can and has a reason to given their own territories. I see no real way for Germany to get Pacific territories back once Japan has seized them, nor stable bases they can gain that would hold off Japanese attack in future.

An alliance with America will probably mean antipathy for Germany given German interests in Central and South America.
But the option is not America or Germany. It is Japan or Germany? In that case, Australia would likely prefer these territories in German hands than in Japanese. The only other option for the former German colonial territories is Britain keeps them. Costs, political organization and certain rivalries would make that solution not preferable, especially when these bargain chips can be used to get things Britain actually wants. We are also not talking about alliance or buddying up. Just about the simple fact that if the OP wants to return some of the pacific territories, he could use this sentiment of fear of the Yellow Menace as a hook to justify it. Not Australia buddying up to Germany, but them trying to use Germany as a buffer between them and the yellow menace. Therefore, support returning the British held colonies in the pacific.

Also, the most obvious power is the British Empire, of which they are a part. America is literally not on the table. America was neither part of the war nor of the possible peace treaty discussion in the scenario postulated by the OP. Nor was it in any way interested in playing protector for a British dominion. Wrong time period or that!

Like British, French, Italian, Spanish and Portugese interests in Central and South America led to that?

The Japanese Empire took Tsingtao as part of the Entente forces and took Mariana, Caroline and Marshall Islands by themselves. The British through New Zealand and Australian forces took New Guinea, Samoa and Nauru. For the Japanese, Tsingtao was essentially worthless, they had more naval bases close by and as a trade harbor its value lay in being a German one. The other islands were taken on an independent decision by the Imperial Navy and not even ordered by the government. I have serious troubles seeing Japan playing hardball to keep all of that against the second-strongest naval power in the world. This is not the nationalistic Japan of WW2. Would they negotiate to have some of them remain with them? Certainly, but absolute success is as unlikely as them just relinquishing all their conquests. Tsingtao is far more valuable for Japan in German hands than in theirs. And the worthless island groups are more prestige objects than anything of strategic value at the time. Bickering, bargaining and typical diplomatic backroom talks would follow and lead to some compromise with Japan keeping some and Germany getting the rest back including some symbolic or material exchanges.
To Britain, all of them are worthless, they have more developed and better placed colonies in the area. A simple bargaining chip that is meant to be used and not worth it to hold onto.

Please don't try to derail a discussion into involving the US, when the topic of discussion has nothing to do with it. You clearly misunderstood what I talked about and run away with it towards something that makes no sense whatsoever in that historic time period.
So in France, the most realistic thing would be an unstable Republic under moderates parties?
The Third Republic was always somewhat unstable, I think one government was just in power for a day, or it may have been the war minister. This trend would likely continue and in a mirror to the Weimar Republic with the economic troubles they would face, the radical positions would get somewhat strengthened. But, both the right and left in France were less "hardcore" than the German equivalents. As an example, the Socialists worked together with the government and were essentially part of it around 1900. Then on the international congress Bebel, the leader of the German Social Democrats, called them out on being a governmental partner. In his mind, that was wrong and he opposed the very idea of it. The congress followed his line and the French socialists fell in line, abandoning their participation in the government. Other examples, Boulanger and the generals around 1899 both had the chance for a coup attempt with actually good chances at succeeding, but both did not even try. While some radicalization would follow the economic downturn, it always does, but they would lack the mass appeal or funding from the former social elite.
To that comes the long tradition of France being a Republic and not a newly formed one like Weimar. There is just not that violent and rampant hatred against the Republic itself like there was in parts of Germany. Bonapartists may remember Napoleon III. but the Orleanists could have troubles finding someone alive that remembers the last one.
You can, of course, introduce the charismatic leader coming from nothing like Adolf Hitler that takes the country by storm, but there would be less support to undermine Republican institutions and do away with certain rights. They had been longer established, broader support and lacked the problems Weimar had.
 
To that comes the long tradition of France being a Republic and not a newly formed one like Weimar. There is just not that violent and rampant hatred against the Republic itself like there was in parts of Germany. Bonapartists may remember Napoleon III. but the Orleanists could have troubles finding someone alive that remembers the last one.
You can, of course, introduce the charismatic leader coming from nothing like Adolf Hitler that takes the country by storm, but there would be less support to undermine Republican institutions and do away with certain rights. They had been longer established, broader support and lacked the problems Weimar had.
I was thinking of someone like La Rocque, maybe he can be more relevant in case the moderates don't manage to alleviate the problems. Furthermore, from what i knows of him, he did not seek to abolish the Republic, but to renew it. His rise could take place in something like this in the 1930s.
 
To that comes the long tradition of France being a Republic and not a newly formed one like Weimar. There is just not that violent and rampant hatred against the Republic itself like there was in parts of Germany. Bonapartists may remember Napoleon III. but the Orleanists could have troubles finding someone alive that remembers the last one.
You can, of course, introduce the charismatic leader coming from nothing like Adolf Hitler that takes the country by storm, but there would be less support to undermine Republican institutions and do away with certain rights. They had been longer established, broader support and lacked the problems Weimar had.
Fact: every single country that fell into fascism and authoritarianism was one that lacked a long-standing democratic tradition.
 
I was thinking of someone like La Rocque, maybe he can be more relevant in case the moderates don't manage to alleviate the problems. Furthermore, from what i knows of him, he did not seek to abolish the Republic, but to renew it. His rise could take place in something like this in the 1930s.
Honest confession, I heard the name La Rocque the first time when you mentioned it. If you read something convincing about him that makes this a possibility, don't let me dissuade you.
Fact: every single country that fell into fascism and authoritarianism was one that lacked a long-standing democratic tradition.
That is an extreme simplification, and I would contest the statement in light of Imperial Germany not being somewhat significantly less democratic than it contemporary Great Powers.
 
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