CP victory: A-H succumbs to ethnic violence

Anchises

Banned
http://ww1.habsburger.net/en/chapters/war-crimes-habsburg-army-between-soldateska-and-court-martial

A-H in WW1 already showed signs of impending ethnic cleansings in the future. Viewing whole population groups as unworthy hostile infiltrators and spies is a prime component for really nasty genocides...A-H seems to have a big number of war crimes under its belt, that a lof of people tend to ignore in their idealized view of the Danubian monarchy.

Even if the CPs win early(ish) and A-H avoids an exhausted dissolution (late 1916/ early 1917), I could easily see WW1 as a dangerous precedence.

The military/diplomatic elites in the Empire already believed in solving internal problems with external actions (either military or diplomatic ones). In the 20s and 30s a generation of men traumatized by war and vindicated in this belief will take over.

Without full federalization and democratization A-H is going to be a basket case in ITTLs early 30s. Ethnic conflicts probably have turned the various parliaments into gridlocked affairs, this has probably hampered economic growth.

My picture of a surviving A-H (if it doesn't pull off the insanely hard transformation to a Danubian Federation) is a economically weak, internally troubled, second rate power. Germany has probably long surpassed them while A-H regresses into self-centered Isolationism (assuming Russia is neutered).

If the "war generation" comes into power, they might attempt to break the internal decay with the means they used back in WW1- violence and war. It would be their paramount goal to drag A-H back on the world stage as a principal actor. Being a backwater, anachronistic sattelite of Germany hardly seems like something the Austro-Hungarian elites could or would swallow.

So I could easily imagine some kind of drift towards fascism. ITTL it is probably going to be seen as some form of neo-absolutism. Corporatism, authoritarianism, militarism and the other elements of the clerical fascism of the Ständestaat will be highly attractive for the elite, even in a surviving A-H.

Now if anything manages to set off the powder keg again, maybe a civil war between the Hungarians and the Austrians, I could easily see a situation where military and politics start emplyoing ethnic cleansing. There were large, systematically oppressed and hated minorities. I actually think it is likely that ITTL A-H would try to secure German/Maygar dominance with similar methods that the Spanish Nationalists or the Nazis employed.
 
I largely agree with this analysis. Austria-Hungary had a huge number of massacres and other war crimes under its belt, against both foreign citizens and A-H's own subjects. At this point, even the best possible government would have trouble dealing with A-H's legacy of extreme brutality, ludicrous mismanagement and rampant ethnic scapegoating.
To say nothing of the pressing need for radical social and political reforms, which were badly needed even before the war broke out.

And it was clear that no one had a real vision for the future of the Dual Monarchy - least of all the monarchy's own leadership, which was 1/5 confused and inept and 4/5 reactionary, chauvinist and extremely trigger-happy. A-H's future is uncertain, but almost certainly littered with severe repression and mass violence. And yeah, probably even straight-up ethnic cleansing.

And I don't think you'd have to wait until the 30s to see it.
 

Anchises

Banned
I largely agree with this analysis. Austria-Hungary had a huge number of massacres and other war crimes under its belt, against both foreign citizens and A-H's own subjects. At this point, even the best possible government would have trouble dealing with A-H's legacy of extreme brutality, ludicrous mismanagement and rampant ethnic scapegoating.
To say nothing of the pressing need for radical social and political reforms, which were badly needed even before the war broke out.

And it was clear that no one had a real vision for the future of the Dual Monarchy - least of all the monarchy's own leadership, which was 1/5 confused and inept and 4/5 reactionary, chauvinist and extremely trigger-happy. A-H's future is uncertain, but almost certainly littered with severe repression and mass violence. And yeah, probably even straight-up ethnic cleansing.

And I don't think you'd have to wait until the 30s to see it.
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I just don't see, after the experiences of WW1, that A-H starts solving its problems with democratization and federalization.

Even Franz Ferdinand wasn't really fond of democracy or self determination. He was a militarist and his idead were mostly designed as a counter to the percieved unseemly influence of Hungarian nobles.

The reformists wouldn't have been able to reach true federalism, so a Trialist concept would have been the most likely "solution" that the Austrian elites would have attempted. The goal here would have been to "solve" Slavic unrest with Croatian domination and to strenghten Austrian influence by tearing areas away from the Hungarians.

Ultimately this would lead to civil wars and ethnic cleansings. Polonization in Galicia, the unrest in the Italian territories, the traditional bias against Jews and Bosnians, the Austrian desire to dominate the Czechs and Slovaks, Maygar surpremacy and a defeated Serbia would cause titanic problems.

After decades of missmanagment I only see these problems culminating in bloodbaths.

A-H had missed its window by decades. In the 1870s A-H might have stabilized with a "Czech Ausgleich" and with a "Croatian Ausgleich". But by 1914 it was too late. A draining war that burned through the cadre of genuine supporters of A-H and exhausted the financial means, makes a constructive solution even more unlikely.
 
A-H already has universal male suffrage and a frenchise bigger than in most democracies at that time, so how does creating more parliaments where rabid nationalists get to play musical instruments to disturb each other solve the problem that 2 of those parliaments did not solve? If anything rewarding nationalists just inflames the problems created by nationalists.

You want to solve problems? Get the micro parties, which are usually formed along ethnic lines, out of the parliaments and force them to join with other parties like them, AH has no need for 13 agrarian parties, one is sufficient to adress the issues of farmers from Tyrol to Transylvania, from Trieste to Tarnopol. A simple 5 % electoral threshold does that. And some basic rules for behavior would also do wonders.

Alternatively... how do you want your independence? The post WW1 borders were enforced by the post WW1 victors. The new Czech kingdom or republic would get at most half of Bohemia/Moravia, Austria retaining the rest (or Germany) which places the Czech nation into their orbit as they can not export or import without their consent. Equally Hungary would not let go of most of Transylvania because there's plenty of Hungarian peoples there, or most of Slovakia, or its access to the sea. And even after independence Croatia would need to fight Serbia for control of a lot of Bosnia and Slavonia and chances are they'll lose even to the exhausted Serbian army after WW1, so instead of Hungarian missmanagement you get ethnic cleansing by Serbia the same way it happened in Albania and Macedonia just before WW1 but this time without the great powers reigning them in. And dont get me started on the Galician clusterf*** in the making.

Bottom line - feed nationalists at your own peril.
 

Anchises

Banned
A-H already has universal male suffrage and a frenchise bigger than in most democracies at that time, so how does creating more parliaments where rabid nationalists get to play musical instruments to disturb each other solve the problem that 2 of those parliaments did not solve? If anything rewarding nationalists just inflames the problems created by nationalists.

You want to solve problems? Get the micro parties, which are usually formed along ethnic lines, out of the parliaments and force them to join with other parties like them, AH has no need for 13 agrarian parties, one is sufficient to adress the issues of farmers from Tyrol to Transylvania, from Trieste to Tarnopol. A simple 5 % electoral threshold does that. And some basic rules for behavior would also do wonders.

Alternatively... how do you want your independence? The post WW1 borders were enforced by the post WW1 victors. The new Czech kingdom or republic would get at most half of Bohemia/Moravia, Austria retaining the rest (or Germany) which places the Czech nation into their orbit as they can not export or import without their consent. Equally Hungary would not let go of most of Transylvania because there's plenty of Hungarian peoples there, or most of Slovakia, or its access to the sea. And even after independence Croatia would need to fight Serbia for control of a lot of Bosnia and Slavonia and chances are they'll lose even to the exhausted Serbian army after WW1, so instead of Hungarian missmanagement you get ethnic cleansing by Serbia the same way it happened in Albania and Macedonia just before WW1 but this time without the great powers reigning them in. And dont get me started on the Galician clusterf*** in the making.

Bottom line - feed nationalists at your own peril.

That's the point though:

Even if TTLs decision makers start implementing the cliche solutions that alternate history praises, shit is still going to be fucked up. The federalization route is quickly going to hit a brick wall.

Either your scenario happens, where you have 4 or 5 parliaments full of rabid nationalists. If you don't force different nationalities into a single parliament you won't have the same chaos as you did in the Reichsrat. However you can be damn sure that they will sabotage the common army, navy and finance at every possible step.

Or you start dissolving the common institutions to appease the nationalists even further. Then we are very quickly at a point where the Empire only exists in name and where even the German core population is going to push for leaving the Empire. Joining the German Empire seems like a much better deal than the weird not really working loose confederation A-H would be in this scenario.

And I really doubt that your way could work either. One party for farmers is not enough due to the massive economic differences between the regions of A-H. A farmer in Austria proper is going to encounter different issues than a farmer in Croatia. And just taking away their parties is not going to end nationalist desires. Maybe all a 5% threshold would just create large parties who don't get anything done due to nationalist wing fights.

My scenario for a civil war and the following independence would be:

- Galicia: A-H quietly supports the new Polish kingdom in ethnically cleansing Galicia. Polonization probably would be intensified with the help of a friendly Habsburg-Poland, naturally this would eventually lead to ethnically cleansing the Ruthenians to support the regime of the Polish nobles.

- Croatia+Serbia: ITTL I doubt that Serbia could win against Serbia. Imagine what A-H would do to Serbia in a few years of occupation, even IOTL Serbia was devastated after WW1. Add a few years of hostile and vengeful occupation on top and things look bleak for Serbia. Croatia on the other hand probably has enjoyed a lot of Austrian support if Trialization has been attempted. So ITTL the Croatians are probably doing the ethnic cleansing in Bosnia and Slavonia.

- Hungary: Probably has to let Croatia go but would hold on to Transylvania like you say. Slovakia might be too much to hold on to in case of a genuine civil war scenario.

- Austria: Probably annexes the territories of Bohemia and Moravia with a sizeable German minority. The rest of Bohemia and Moravia ends up as German and/or Austrian satellites.

- the Italian areas: There are bigger prices to win. Italy probably annexes them with little resistance.
 
That's the point though:

Even if TTLs decision makers start implementing the cliche solutions that alternate history praises, shit is still going to be fucked up. The federalization route is quickly going to hit a brick wall.

Either your scenario happens, where you have 4 or 5 parliaments full of rabid nationalists. If you don't force different nationalities into a single parliament you won't have the same chaos as you did in the Reichsrat. However you can be damn sure that they will sabotage the common army, navy and finance at every possible step.

Or you start dissolving the common institutions to appease the nationalists even further. Then we are very quickly at a point where the Empire only exists in name and where even the German core population is going to push for leaving the Empire. Joining the German Empire seems like a much better deal than the weird not really working loose confederation A-H would be in this scenario.
It would be the obvious outcome if decentralization goes too far, A-H had run on the monolithic personality of Franz Joseph before but when he's gone his reputation and the cult of personality surrounding him goes as well.

And I really doubt that your way could work either. One party for farmers is not enough due to the massive economic differences between the regions of A-H. A farmer in Austria proper is going to encounter different issues than a farmer in Croatia. And just taking away their parties is not going to end nationalist desires. Maybe all a 5% threshold would just create large parties who don't get anything done due to nationalist wing fights.

My scenario for a civil war and the following independence would be:

- Galicia: A-H quietly supports the new Polish kingdom in ethnically cleansing Galicia. Polonization probably would be intensified with the help of a friendly Habsburg-Poland, naturally this would eventually lead to ethnically cleansing the Ruthenians to support the regime of the Polish nobles.
Depends on the Galician nobles really, if post war Poland is a German satellite they might not really like the idea of joining up as they had plenty of autonomy before, no one likes giving up power (and money).

- Croatia+Serbia: ITTL I doubt that Serbia could win against Serbia. Imagine what A-H would do to Serbia in a few years of occupation, even IOTL Serbia was devastated after WW1. Add a few years of hostile and vengeful occupation on top and things look bleak for Serbia. Croatia on the other hand probably has enjoyed a lot of Austrian support if Trialization has been attempted. So ITTL the Croatians are probably doing the ethnic cleansing in Bosnia and Slavonia.
I'd say that Serbia despite losing will have a superior army due to all the fighting they've been doing while Croatia ends up with the scraps of the A-H army that fall to it.

- Hungary: Probably has to let Croatia go but would hold on to Transylvania like you say. Slovakia might be too much to hold on to in case of a genuine civil war scenario.
I see it the same way, Southern Slovakia would be retained and Bratislava probably goes to Austria as it had enough German speakers to justify it.

- Austria: Probably annexes the territories of Bohemia and Moravia with a sizeable German minority. The rest of Bohemia and Moravia ends up as German and/or Austrian satellites.

- the Italian areas: There are bigger prices to win. Italy probably annexes them with little resistance.
Probably not, except the lower part of South Tyrol, the cost is too valuable and has enough Slovenes and German speakers, plus the Trieste harbor and ship yards.
I support your ideas, mostly. Answers in red.
 
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I just don't see, after the experiences of WW1, that A-H starts solving its problems with democratization and federalization.

Even Franz Ferdinand wasn't really fond of democracy or self determination. He was a militarist and his idead were mostly designed as a counter to the percieved unseemly influence of Hungarian nobles.

The reformists wouldn't have been able to reach true federalism, so a Trialist concept would have been the most likely "solution" that the Austrian elites would have attempted. The goal here would have been to "solve" Slavic unrest with Croatian domination and to strenghten Austrian influence by tearing areas away from the Hungarians.

"Solution" is a good way of putting it, because at this point Trialism would represent a complete non-solution. The Habsburgs' hypothetical implementation of Trialism would probably make OTL Royal Yugoslavia look like a beacon of stability and good governance.

Though I don't find it likely that Trialism would even be attempted. Vienna did flirt with Croatian ultranationalism; but when it came to challenging Budapest, Karl just didn't have the courage - not even in his last desperate gambles. In general, I don't think one can expect federalization or significant democratization in A-H. What seems to be in the cards is the same old race to the bottom between the Hungarian oligarchy and the Greater Austrian militarist camp Only made even worse by the experiences of WWI.
 
The rest of Bohemia and Moravia ends up as German and/or Austrian satellites.
Why would Bohemia-Moravia be independent? Until WW1, Czech was one of the more loyal regions and independence was really only followed by the majority of Czechs when it was clear the A-H was collapsing. He Young Czech Party, perhaps but the Old czech party was against independence, preferring to improve from within
 

Anchises

Banned
"Solution" is a good way of putting it, because at this point Trialism would represent a complete non-solution. The Habsburgs' hypothetical implementation of Trialism would probably make OTL Royal Yugoslavia look like a beacon of stability and good governance.

Though I don't find it likely that Trialism would even be attempted. Vienna did flirt with Croatian ultranationalism; but when it came to challenging Budapest, Karl just didn't have the courage - not even in his last desperate gambles. In general, I don't think one can expect federalization or significant democratization in A-H. What seems to be in the cards is the same old race to the bottom between the Hungarian oligarchy and the Greater Austrian militarist camp Only made even worse by the experiences of WWI.

My thoughts exactly. The Greater Austrian military camp would probably feel vindicated after winning WW1. So I think they would try to make the smallest possible reforms.

Why would Bohemia-Moravia be independent? Until WW1, Czech was one of the more loyal regions and independence was really only followed by the majority of Czechs when it was clear the A-H was collapsing. He Young Czech Party, perhaps but the Old czech party was against independence, preferring to improve from within

If A-H starts succumbing to ethnic violence, I think the Czechs would quickly seek independence. Just like they did IOTL in 1918.
 
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