Course of the 20th century with no WW2

I'm a long term lurker of the forums, and I really enjoy playing around with alternate history just for fun. This is a topic I often come back to, especially since the events of the 30s and 40s were, in my view, massively impacted by pure chance (considering everything that had to go right for the Nazis to rise to power and for Germany to temporarily dominate Europe). And because the state of the 20th century and indeed the modern world are so rooted in the events during, and soon after, WW2.

Because of the nature of the topic I think trying to assertain a 'true' alternate timeline is a fool's errand. Instead I'd like this to be a speculative discussion. Having evidence to support the speculation is of course important - but if you have an interesting idea or theory of what might have been, but lack a large amount of evidence to back it up, share it anyway! (provided it is still within the realm of rationality, this isn't the ASB forum).

Some questions to start off:

Without the Soviets dominating Eastern Europe and receiving a boost from lend-lease, do they still become as powerful as in OTL? How does the USSR develop under Stalin? Do you think conflict with the west is inevitable?

In my opinion, conflict between Japan and the USA was very likely, independent of what happens in Europe. But without the cold war storm clouds brewing, does the United States still turn Japan into an ally? Or simply force it into submission and leave it at that? Do the states still develop the atom bomb, and if so, is it used?

If Germany ends up falling to some sort of right-wing government at some point (albeit one much, much tamer than the Nazis). Do you think some kind of conflict in Europe is inevitable? If so, what form does it take?

If a major conflict in Europe is avoided, and thus without a Europe in ruin. Does America still become a 'superpower'? It certainly has the potential. Does it continue down it isolationist road, or do you think the seeds of internationalism were already planted?

How does decolonization develop? With Britain and France still strong, how long can they supress the desire for self determination in their colonies? Does Germany take the place of OTL's US and Soviets; pushing for independence of the colonies to open up their markets for trade?

And on a grimmer note... without the holocaust, how does Israel develop? The Balfour Declaration was signed early on in 1917, but the events of WW2 undeniably had a huge impact in the development of Israel. Does Israel still end up forming similar to OTL? Or does it become a slightly more successful Birobidzhan? (Subjects relating to the holocaust are sensitive but, I believe, important and noteworthy to discuss. Having said that, please be polite and respectful with the subject).

There are many, many, more subjects to talk about and think about, but I'll leave it to you all to start them. I understand this is a very large and open topic, but like I said I'd like this to be a very general discussion on the course of the world as a whole, and a thread where we can share any interesting ideas or theories we might have.:)
 
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It's ok. The OP could be more focused & less wordy, but otherwise it's comprehensible.

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Some questions to start off:

Without the Soviets dominating Eastern Europe and receiving a boost from lend-lease, do they still become as powerful as in OTL? How does the USSR develop under Stalin? Do you think conflict with the west is inevitable

No, it's possible but not inevitable. During the early Stalin era, to 1939 the policy had been to support revolts and proxy wars. That had not been successful. A aggressive USSR requires a fairly radical change in Asian or European situation

In my opinion, conflict between Japan and the USA was very likely, independent of what happens in Europe. But without the cold war storm clouds brewing, does the United States still turn Japan into an ally? Or simply force it into submission and leave it at that? Do the states still develop the atom bomb, and if so, is it used?

Nothing inevitable. It's possible but a alternative course is Japan faces economic collapse in 1942 & has to make peace with China. There could even be a sort of shadow civil war in Japan as was occuring earlier with frequent assassinations.

If Germany ends up falling to some sort of right-wing government at some point (albeit one much, much tamer than the Nazis). Do you think some kind of conflict in Europe is inevitable? If so, what form does it take?

Again not inevitable. The sensible course is to rebuild economically to pre 1914 levels. As the bitter Great War generation died off a better political structure than the Versailles Treaty and Leauge of nation's negotiated. Of course there is the chance of some crazy political movement derailing all that.


If a major conflict in Europe is avoided, and thus without a Europe in ruin. Does America still become a 'superpower'? It certainly has the potential. Does it continue down it isolationist road, or do you think the seeds of internationalism were already planted?

Recovery from the Depression is slower & there is not the rapid & massive investment in key infrastructure. The main advantage is New York had out grown London as the global banking center, but that does not mean much to a business man in Peoria.

How does decolonization develop? With Britain and France still strong, how long can they supress the desire for self determination in their colonies? Does Germany take the place of OTL's US and Soviets; pushing for independence of the colonies to open up their markets for trade?

Germany can argue for free trade, but mid century it still won't have the economic leverage to move much.

Absent the Nazis & with a Republic a German US tie is liable to continue and grow from the 1920s level.
 
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