Courbet gains Formosa and the Pescadores for France

What if France occupy Formosa and the Pescadores in the aftermath of the Sino-French War? They were pressured into leaving them up by the British in OTL, since the shaken government that replaced Ferry after the Tonkin Affair wasn't willing to haggle for them.

So let's assume that the Tonkin Affair doesn't happen; the French commanders in Tonkin don't send an early, pessimistic report about the front's status, and Ferry's government doesn't fall. Courbet holds onto Formosa and the Pescadores, and doesn't budge when the British tell him to. Ferry reminds the United Kingdom about the millstone of the Egyptian occupation, and the British grudgingly agree to allow France to retain the islands, as long as, say, the Pescadores are not fortified in any way.

How do things develop from here?
 

Hecatee

Donor
What if France occupy Formosa and the Pescadores in the aftermath of the Sino-French War? They were pressured into leaving them up by the British in OTL, since the shaken government that replaced Ferry after the Tonkin Affair wasn't willing to haggle for them.

So let's assume that the Tonkin Affair doesn't happen; the French commanders in Tonkin don't send an early, pessimistic report about the front's status, and Ferry's government doesn't fall. Courbet holds onto Formosa and the Pescadores, and doesn't budge when the British tell him to. Ferry reminds the United Kingdom about the millstone of the Egyptian occupation, and the British grudgingly agree to allow France to retain the islands, as long as, say, the Pescadores are not fortified in any way.


How do things develop from here?


That would certainly change things for Japan since they will not acquire it on China in 1895, meaning they would probably win more lands somewhere else, either in Korea or in Manchuria, possibly even the strategic Port-Arthur becoming japanese in the
Shimonoseki treaty. This could also accelerate chinese unrest because the perceived loss of face would be worse.

This would also mean a very different war against Russia in 1904 with probably less naval action and thus less prestige for Japan, but also a bit less of a loss of prestige for the Tsar.

For France Formose and the islands would not bring much and would probably be seen as a dead weight or used as a plateform to trade with China. Later it could be providing a quicker reinforcement for the Beijing ambassies during the Boxer War and be the cause for larger french involvement in this conflict.

In WW1 the German forces based in China would probably be intercepted much earlier by the french squadron probably protecting Formose, and would also probably mean that Japan would not be asked to participate in the war : the UK and France would seize the german colonies themselves. It might also be played by the german as a way to seduce the japanese in order to have them come to the CP side, but I doubt it. France and the UK still have a lot of influence in Japan at this time (and France might have even more that OTL, keeping on the tradition of Emile Bertin and others)...

Then come the interwar, with France maybe being more vocal against Japan and possibly helping China earlier against the japanese in order to protect the role of a large trading station of Formosa.

During WW2 the Japanese (this time probably closer to Germany than OTL) have much less springing boards for operations in SW Asia and can't progress as fast
. They might well keep out of war with the western allies and accellerate operations against China before turning to the northern ressources area (but with still the issue of fuel...)
 

maverick

Banned
I have to wonder how this will affect the dynamics of the region.

The British have been forced to accept a French takeover of Formosa, which means that in addition to Indochina France now has quite a strong presence in East Asia in general and the South China Seas in particular, which could make the Admiralty consider expanding the RN presence in Malaysia, Hong Kong and Southern China, so as to not have a French Hegemony develop over Southern China. Meaning that come the 1890s and 1900s Britain could theoretically more concerned about French and Russian spheres of influence growing in China, although fears of German expansionism could always dwarf concerns regarding East Asia.

Qing China is as decrepit as it's going to get, so I don't think that this would hasten its demise considerably, and now Japanese Nationalism has been denied an outlet, while also given reason to fear that the western imperialist powers are very much active in East Asia. So Japan trying to get more stuff out of China come the Sino-Japanese war is not an impossibility, especially as China has been further humiliated in the eyes of Tokyo and the world by the loss of Formosa.
 

Hecatee

Donor
I have to wonder how this will affect the dynamics of the region.

The British have been forced to accept a French takeover of Formosa, which means that in addition to Indochina France now has quite a strong presence in East Asia in general and the South China Seas in particular, which could make the Admiralty consider expanding the RN presence in Malaysia, Hong Kong and Southern China, so as to not have a French Hegemony develop over Southern China. Meaning that come the 1890s and 1900s Britain could theoretically more concerned about French and Russian spheres of influence growing in China, although fears of German expansionism could always dwarf concerns regarding East Asia.
Interesting thought... Could it lead to the franco-british alliance being weaker in 1914 ?

Also, reading a bit on the German east asian colonies, I notice most of them were created in the 90's so maybe the increased french presence in the area would simply lead to their non-foundation and thus an increase of the german work in Africa. The Kaiser might also feel even more frustrated with France and try to provoque some colonial incident in the 90's or the early XXth century...
 

maverick

Banned
It'd be interesting if we could combine this with an earlier Sino-Japanese War that the Japanese lose or tie.

If Japan for instance attacks China in the early 1890s or late 1880s (say, 1889 or 1891) due to the hard-liners in Tokyo reacting to French Formosa, and don't make as many gains as IOTL, then there could either be no Triple Intervention and no Russian occupation of Liaodong, or alternatively the Russians could move in earlier taking advantage of the post-war chaos.
 
You know, I have no idea what they would do with Taiwan. The Japanese turned it into a (well run) sugar colony. But I suspect France had beets, though I'm not sure.
 

Hecatee

Donor
France would probably want it for tea, a product that I don't think they could grow in meaningfull quantities in Indochina. Plus it would give them a very good strategic base, we must not forget that the French had a military expedition against Korea in 1866 and then saw the US fail in their own expedition of 71... Formose in 84 would be getting easier access to the slowly opening peninsula, one year after the british and german trade treaties... It would, in fact, be a very big and more secure Hong Kong for the Frenches. Also with a lot more room and a much smaller population density.
 
Formosa had a smaller, less unified and less civilized native population than most of the other East Asian colonies...I'd imagine the spread of the French language culture would happen a lot faster here than elsewhere. Especially if it's successful like Hong Kong, I can see it developing infrastructure and giving the island a unique, western culture. Interesting to see how that'd work during TTL's analouge to decolonization.
 
Formosa had a smaller, less unified and less civilized native population than most of the other East Asian colonies...I'd imagine the spread of the French language culture would happen a lot faster here than elsewhere. Especially if it's successful like Hong Kong, I can see it developing infrastructure and giving the island a unique, western culture. Interesting to see how that'd work during TTL's analouge to decolonization.

By the Sino-French war, Taiwan had largely become "Chinese" on the western plains. The native tribes there had mostly merged with the Chinese immigrants. Foreign governing cultures have a tendency of being swallowed by Chinese culture, so I don't think there would really be a rapid adoption of French culture especially since so much of the population was rural.

As for the rest of the island, Japan took nearly all of its colonial period to establish control and that was with the help of aerial bombing (explosives and poison gas) of aboriginal villages, construction of railways, miles of electric fences, and some clever manipulation of intertribal rivalries. The "less civilized" native population is one where warfare was nearly a daily occurrence in life and the culture required boys to kill and behead another person in order to become a man. Think the Maoris of New Zealand and all the trouble the British had with them, only the aborigines aren't as vulnerable to disease, were well acquainted with rifles and central Taiwan is even more mountainous and inaccessible.

Japan went through so much effort because the mountains were a valuable source of timber and camphor. Some of Japan's many temples are built with Taiwanese wood. Camphor was used mainly as incense and medicine by the Japanese. I'm not sure if the French would really find any use for it, given that their Indochinese colonies could supply it too. I don't know how brutal or cunning the French where at the time, but they are in for a long and bloody battle if they want to try and take the interior. Qing China had Taiwan for 212 years and never got past the foothills of the mountains.
 
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archaeogeek

Banned
Formosa had a smaller, less unified and less civilized native population than most of the other East Asian colonies...I'd imagine the spread of the French language culture would happen a lot faster here than elsewhere. Especially if it's successful like Hong Kong, I can see it developing infrastructure and giving the island a unique, western culture. Interesting to see how that'd work during TTL's analouge to decolonization.

There were already 3 million people on Taiwan, the majority of whom were chinese.
 
It'd be interesting if we could combine this with an earlier Sino-Japanese War that the Japanese lose or tie.

If Japan for instance attacks China in the early 1890s or late 1880s (say, 1889 or 1891) due to the hard-liners in Tokyo reacting to French Formosa, and don't make as many gains as IOTL, then there could either be no Triple Intervention and no Russian occupation of Liaodong, or alternatively the Russians could move in earlier taking advantage of the post-war chaos.

Interestingly enough, Japan was reaching out to France in this period, and preliminary discussions for an alliance were made; at the point of the Sino-French War, France looked to be the power most helpful in Japan's quest to expand onto the Asian continent.

A France that owns Formosa is a France that looks like a good bet for an alliance. The conclusion of a Franco-Japanese alliance in 1886 or 1887 has many interesting repercussions.
 
What if France occupy Formosa and the Pescadores in the aftermath of the Sino-French War? They were pressured into leaving them up by the British in OTL, since the shaken government that replaced Ferry after the Tonkin Affair wasn't willing to haggle for them.

I think the only way this happens is if the Sino-French War goes on for at least several months longer than it did OTL. I don't think there's any way that the Qing would agree to cede Taiwan in early 1885 based on the situation at that time. The French presence on Taiwan was basically confined to the port of Jilong, if I recall correctly (although the Pescadores had been taken by France). Recall that on the Chinese side, the main impetus for a peace settlement was the fear that Japan would intervene, and the general consensus at court was to get out of the war while the getting was good, or at least not as bad as it could be. Giving up a claim to an area that you don't own to begin with is quite different to giving up Taiwan, and barring more serious reverses than they experienced in OTL, I think it's highly unlikely that the Qing would accept such a demand.
 

Hendryk

Banned
It'd be interesting if we could combine this with an earlier Sino-Japanese War that the Japanese lose or tie.

If Japan for instance attacks China in the early 1890s or late 1880s (say, 1889 or 1891) due to the hard-liners in Tokyo reacting to French Formosa, and don't make as many gains as IOTL, then there could either be no Triple Intervention and no Russian occupation of Liaodong, or alternatively the Russians could move in earlier taking advantage of the post-war chaos.
An earlier Sino-Japanese war would, in naval terms, probably be to the advantage of China. By 1894 its pre-dreadnought battleships were getting obsolete, but five years earlier they would have been more of a threat to a Japanese navy that doesn't enjoy a significant technological advantage.

The loss of Taiwan would also likely have jump-started the modernization of China's land forces a few years earlier than in OTL. One possible butterfly is that its command might not be entrusted to Yuan Shikai, preempting his rise as the late Qing dynasty's most powerful strongman.
 
One possible butterfly is that its command might not be entrusted to Yuan Shikai, preempting his rise as the late Qing dynasty's most powerful strongman.

I don't think that Yuan's rise would be butterflied by a worse outcome for China in the Sino-French War. Given that he was posted in Korea at the time, he'd be well-positioned to avoid any repercussions from the poor performance of the army, since he wasn't on the scene. In fact, a situation like the one we're discussing might result in his star rising even more quickly.
 
Interestingly enough, Japan was reaching out to France in this period, and preliminary discussions for an alliance were made; at the point of the Sino-French War, France looked to be the power most helpful in Japan's quest to expand onto the Asian continent.

A France that owns Formosa is a France that looks like a good bet for an alliance. The conclusion of a Franco-Japanese alliance in 1886 or 1887 has many interesting repercussions.

Hmm, a Franco-Japanese alliance would be interesting to see. Maybe things like OTL's Renault-Nissan Alliance would be seen in this case as being natural.
 
Britain ITTL will feel more threatened by the French than OTL when Fashoda rolls around. Could this have some effect?

Also, I don't think that the French will make a permanent alliance with the Japanese. They value Russia as a counterbalance against Germany far more than they care about East Asia.
 
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