Coup-Proofing in Ethiopia post 1960 coup

What would be the impact if after the 1960 coup attempt. Haile Selassie had purged the military and replaced the officer core and generals with loyalists along with overlapping agencies,parallel military and other similar practices

How long would the monarchy remain in power

Would the government face a major rebellion at some point

Would Somalia invade at some point and how successful would they be

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1960_Ethiopian_coup_attempt
 
Last edited:
Haile Selassie's Ethiopia becomes much more authoritarian than OTL as loyalists and monarchists are placed in positions of power that are under the complete control of Emperor Haile Selassie until his death in the 60s or 70s. If you isolate Ethiopia enough from the world, a controlled modernization could take place that results in more developed Ethiopian infrastructure, a professional standing army loyal to the central Imperial Government and not to mention, a coastline. The Imperial Government would face some kind of major rebellion in the Eritrean and Somali provinces where the Eritrean Liberation Front and Ogaden National Liberation organizations are based but if Haile Selassie recognizes that there needs to be change - he could restore Eritrean autonomy and cede more political power to the Ethiopian people as members of the intelligentsia were demanding. Following the liberation of Ethiopia from Italian occupation in 1941, Haile Selassie focused on the consolidation of his power over the Ethiopian state whilst implementing the more token reforms as the nobility and Church remained more influential institutions that supported the Emperor. The monarchy isn't going to last long if it doesn't implement social, political, land and tax reforms which is going to gain support from the intelligentsia and peasantry which was the majority of the Ethiopian population - perhaps the more liberal Amha Selassie becomes Emperor in the 60s following the death of Haile Selassie.

As for the Somali invasion of the Ogaden, you might see the Ethiopians fend off the invasion and drive the Somalis back into Somalia while supporting different opposition groups in Somalia or you could the Ogaden falling into Somali hands with heavy casualties on both sides. I'm unsure about an Ethiopian Empire's ability to defeat the Somali invasion - OTL, the only reason that Ethiopia managed to fend off Somali annexation of the Ogaden was from massive support from the Warsaw Pact and considering the United States has already withdrawn from Vietnam, I doubt the West is going to be likely to assist a monarchist Ethiopia in an Ogaden War.
 
As for the Somali invasion of the Ogaden, you might see the Ethiopians fend off the invasion and drive the Somalis back into Somalia while supporting different opposition groups in Somalia or you could the Ogaden falling into Somali hands with heavy casualties on both sides. I'm unsure about an Ethiopian Empire's ability to defeat the Somali invasion - OTL, the only reason that Ethiopia managed to fend off Somali annexation of the Ogaden was from massive support from the Warsaw Pact and considering the United States has already withdrawn from Vietnam, I doubt the West is going to be likely to assist a monarchist Ethiopia in an Ogaden War.

I'm only really qualified to talk about Somali history, but @twistedirregular is on point as far as the Ogaden War. The Ethiopian army was in a very sorry state at the time that Barre rolls in to take back the Ogaden, but more importantly, the Somali Army was one of the most fearsome in Africa. I'll repost a block of text I wrote in another thread:

In an average war (if there is such a thing) between East African nations, I don't think there's all that much that could have overextended the Somali Army except an OTL Ogaden War scenario where one world superpower throws significant weight on the other side. The Somali Army, which had been getting anywhere from 55 million to 83 million dollars worth of funding yearly from the Soviets by this time, had 6 tank battalions, 11 artillery battalions, 9 mechanised infantry battalions, 2 commando battalions, and 5 infantry battalions according to the British think tank IISS in 1977. The Italians estimated that the Somali Army actually had 12 artillery battalions, 7 infantry battalions, 3 commando battalions, 9 mechanized infantry battalions, and 7 tank battalions. The Somali Army was the largest mechanized force on the continent at the time - during the invasion it sent out anywhere from 250-310 tanks, 20-30 of which were T-55s and 15 of which were T-62s. These statistics aren't scary compared to what Warsaw Pact and NATO members could field, but in the context of Africa circa 1977 where countries often struggled to field 30 working WW2-era tanks, this was absolutely terrifying.

Without massive Warsaw Pact or NATO saving, the Ogaden is as good as gone.
 
I'm only really qualified to talk about Somali history, but @twistedirregular is on point as far as the Ogaden War. The Ethiopian army was in a very sorry state at the time that Barre rolls in to take back the Ogaden, but more importantly, the Somali Army was one of the most fearsome in Africa. I'll repost a block of text I wrote in another thread:

In an average war (if there is such a thing) between East African nations, I don't think there's all that much that could have overextended the Somali Army except an OTL Ogaden War scenario where one world superpower throws significant weight on the other side. The Somali Army, which had been getting anywhere from 55 million to 83 million dollars worth of funding yearly from the Soviets by this time, had 6 tank battalions, 11 artillery battalions, 9 mechanised infantry battalions, 2 commando battalions, and 5 infantry battalions according to the British think tank IISS in 1977. The Italians estimated that the Somali Army actually had 12 artillery battalions, 7 infantry battalions, 3 commando battalions, 9 mechanized infantry battalions, and 7 tank battalions. The Somali Army was the largest mechanized force on the continent at the time - during the invasion it sent out anywhere from 250-310 tanks, 20-30 of which were T-55s and 15 of which were T-62s. These statistics aren't scary compared to what Warsaw Pact and NATO members could field, but in the context of Africa circa 1977 where countries often struggled to field 30 working WW2-era tanks, this was absolutely terrifying.

Without massive Warsaw Pact or NATO saving, the Ogaden is as good as gone.
Jesus Christ, I'm surprised we managed to push the Somalis out of the Ogaden! Ethiopia might collapse as a result of a Somali victory in the Ogaden and the Somalis are probably going to divide the spoils with the Eritreans and Tigreans. I don't see the West intervening so Ethiopia's pretty much gone and the Derg's members have been killed by the peasantry.
 
What if the crown prince took power? He seemed progressive.
Perhaps but it depends on when Haile Selassie dies, I'd recommend some time during the 50s or 60s. Even then, someone like Ras Imru may become the new Emperor and Ras Imru was very much in favor of land and tax reforms to the point where he could be considered a socialist by western European standards.
 
Wouldn't they sent supplies and advisers.

Yeah, but that's not enough. You'd need a NATO troop surge equivalent to the Warsaw Pact one to stop Siad from running over the Ogaden like he did. The imbalance of military strength is just too large to overcome without actual NATO/WARPAC soldiers and tech rolling back the Somali Army.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Haile Selassie's Ethiopia becomes much more authoritarian than OTL as loyalists and monarchists are placed in positions of power that are under the complete control of Emperor Haile Selassie until his death in the 60s or 70s. If you isolate Ethiopia enough from the world, a controlled modernization could take place that results in more developed Ethiopian infrastructure, a professional standing army loyal to the central Imperial Government and not to mention, a coastline. The Imperial Government would face some kind of major rebellion in the Eritrean and Somali provinces where the Eritrean Liberation Front and Ogaden National Liberation organizations are based but if Haile Selassie recognizes that there needs to be change - he could restore Eritrean autonomy and cede more political power to the Ethiopian people as members of the intelligentsia were demanding. Following the liberation of Ethiopia from Italian occupation in 1941, Haile Selassie focused on the consolidation of his power over the Ethiopian state whilst implementing the more token reforms as the nobility and Church remained more influential institutions that supported the Emperor. The monarchy isn't going to last long if it doesn't implement social, political, land and tax reforms which is going to gain support from the intelligentsia and peasantry which was the majority of the Ethiopian population - perhaps the more liberal Amha Selassie becomes Emperor in the 60s following the death of Haile Selassie.

As for the Somali invasion of the Ogaden, you might see the Ethiopians fend off the invasion and drive the Somalis back into Somalia while supporting different opposition groups in Somalia or you could the Ogaden falling into Somali hands with heavy casualties on both sides. I'm unsure about an Ethiopian Empire's ability to defeat the Somali invasion - OTL, the only reason that Ethiopia managed to fend off Somali annexation of the Ogaden was from massive support from the Warsaw Pact and considering the United States has already withdrawn from Vietnam, I doubt the West is going to be likely to assist a monarchist Ethiopia in an Ogaden War.
If he becomes paranoid and more authoritarian he'd probably slow down modernization and put more reactionaries in power. After all it was the modernists who were the obvious danger.
 
If he becomes paranoid and more authoritarian he'd probably slow down modernization and put more reactionaries in power. After all it was the modernists who were the obvious danger.
Wasn't it mainly the radicals of the civilian left that were the danger? I'm pretty sure they were the ones who influenced the Derg into implementing communism throughout Ethiopia.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Wasn't it mainly the radicals of the civilian left that were the danger? I'm pretty sure they were the ones who influenced the Derg into implementing communism throughout Ethiopia.
The 1960 coup was a bunch of frustrated reformists who saw two steps back for any step forward due to aristocrats meddling and sabotaging, and the Emperor basically allowing it. So yeah, I could see Haile Selassie turning on the reformers if he get more spooked by the '60 coup than OTL.
 
The 1960 coup was a bunch of frustrated reformists who saw two steps back for any step forward due to aristocrats meddling and sabotaging, and the Emperor basically allowing it. So yeah, I could see Haile Selassie turning on the reformers if he get more spooked by the '60 coup than OTL.
I mean't the 1974 coup and the Derg becoming communist.

Haile Selassie could focus on isolating Ethiopia (to an extent) and controlling the modernization process so that Ethiopian infrastructure is mostly developed alongside with their economy and military that leads to Ethiopia maybe retaining its monarchy and even the Ogaden in the face of a Somali invasion but the latter is much more unlikely. The Ethiopians might lose the Ogaden and this may lead to an Ethiopian Civil War where different royalist, republican, communist, etc. opposition groups battle one another which leads to Ethiopia becoming like OTL Somalia or the Emperor cracks down on all dissident which leads to the Ethiopians managing to barely retain the Ogaden without any opposition from in Ethiopia proper. There's likely to be political liberalization and reforms - land and tax reforms have most likely been implemented by this time - some time in the late 80s and 90s if someone like Amha Selassie or Ras Imru becomes Emperor.
 
The imbalance of military strength is just too large to overcome without actual NATO/WARPAC soldiers and tech rolling back the Somali Army
Would the Ogaden war last longer. would Kenya join given they had a defense pact with Ethiopia and their both western allied.
 
Would the Ogaden war last longer. would Kenya join given they had a defense pact with Ethiopia and their both western allied.

I mean, Kenya's army was not in much of a better state than Ethiopia's in '77. Even an alliance of the two would not be much of a block to territorial ambitions - in fact, it might give Siad a neat causus belli to grab the NFD from Kenya as well. Kenyatta wasn't stupid; he'd gotten a temporary reprieve from Somali expansionism after the peace at Arusha and he wasn't going to piss off Somalia until he could get his army into fighting shape. Honestly, you'd need at least Tanzania to also be in this alliance to really do something and Tanzania was cheering from the sidelines as Siad invaded. IMO, there were three (maybe four) armies in Africa in '77 that could fight Somalia evenly: South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, and Rhodesia. Anybody else who doesn't have a strong multi-country alliance or get saved by soldiers from WARPAC/NATO would be leveled.

What you could do is have a reactionary and militaristic Ethiopia that invades Somalia very shortly after the Kediye-Koshel-Barre troika coups President Shermarke. In '69, Somalia is about even with Ethiopia, since the modernization under the Somali Republic was rather slow. Once the communists take over and spend eight years ramping up for war with Soviet aid, it's hard to stop them, so nipping the SDR in the bud would be the best course of action for a reactionary Ethiopia.
 
I mean, Kenya's army was not in much of a better state than Ethiopia's in '77. Even an alliance of the two would not be much of a block to territorial ambitions - in fact, it might give Siad a neat causus belli to grab the NFD from Kenya as well. Kenyatta wasn't stupid; he'd gotten a temporary reprieve from Somali expansionism after the peace at Arusha and he wasn't going to piss off Somalia until he could get his army into fighting shape. Honestly, you'd need at least Tanzania to also be in this alliance to really do something and Tanzania was cheering from the sidelines as Siad invaded. IMO, there were three (maybe four) armies in Africa in '77 that could fight Somalia evenly: South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, and Rhodesia. Anybody else who doesn't have a strong multi-country alliance or get saved by soldiers from WARPAC/NATO would be leveled.

What you could do is have a reactionary and militaristic Ethiopia that invades Somalia very shortly after the Kediye-Koshel-Barre troika coups President Shermarke. In '69, Somalia is about even with Ethiopia, since the modernization under the Somali Republic was rather slow. Once the communists take over and spend eight years ramping up for war with Soviet aid, it's hard to stop them, so nipping the SDR in the bud would be the best course of action for a reactionary Ethiopia.
All good points as to why Kenya - much less, the West - isn't going to assist Ethiopia against the Somalis. I think it's plausible for Ethiopia to invade Somalia in order to topple the Supreme Revolutionary Council of Somalia and re-establish the Somali Republic with assistance from the West that allows for UN-monitored elections for a new President, Council of Ministers and Somali National Assembly. Then again, Ethiopia could invade and defeat the Somali Democratic Republic, only to install a puppet government of Ogadeni Somalis and national Somalis in place in order to make sure that Somalia doesn't fall to another commie coup. An Ethio-Somali War of 1969 could see the Ethiopian civilian populace distracted for some time from the lack of reforms concerning Ethiopian land systems, taxation, social and political conditions as Haile Selassie might die earlier which gives a chance for the more liberal Amha Selassie or Ras Imru Haile Selassie to become Emperor.
 
Coup proofing is the bane of arab armies, its the main reason for their ineffective performance throughout their wars.

Coup proofing after 1960 makes a future war with Somalia much easier, and looking its performance in 1977 it would have been defeated faster.
The Ethiopian army outnumbered the Somali in 1977 but it was infantry heavy, and Somalia had nearly double the the tanks and IFV's. Its even worse when you include the amount of trucks and soviet jeep analogues the somalis had more than 3 times the number of motorized infantry than the Ethiopians.
When you include artillery then you can imagine the level of advantage the Somalis had considering soviet artillery was far superior to NATO well into the 80's.

The performance of the ethiopian army in 1977 would appear even worse when you factor in the internal issues the somalis had during the war.
There was excessive micro-management of the war all the way from Mogadishu by Siad and the late 70's he was already beginning to get paranoid about the loyalty of the armed forces s when the officers on the front ignored stupid orders unlike the german army on the eastern front, there were court martials and execution of dozens on officers right on the front lines.
This was one of the causes of the clan rebellions on the 80's and it was a major source of resentment.

The airforce faced the brunt of Siads paranoia because it was filled with allot of potential coup plotters as he saw it, so he limited training and flight times.

This showed in 1977 where the Ethiopian army collapsed on all fronts, being outmaneuvered and outgunned,
The Ethiopian airforce achieved superiority with their F-5's against somali mig-21's.
Lucky for the Somalis the Ethiopian airforce was decimated due to mass purge and the sky's were free till cuban flown Mig-23's arrived a few months later,
 
Kenya entering the war would not have done much, due to the the terrain and logistics problems invading the juba region of Somalia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Linda_Nchi
In Kenyas recent invasion to fight al shabab, even though much better equiped and trained the 1977 armed forces,
the kenyans were crawling due to the terrain and came to halt several times due to guerilla attacks.
It took nearly 6 weeks to move from the border to Kismayo, a distance of just 250km.


This means that an attempt at an invasion to meet the terms of its alliance with ethiopia in 1977,
would have required a minimum Somali troops to counter.
Infact in 1977 the somali army moved into the NFD to attack the southern parts of the Ogaden, sidestepping Ethiopian border defenses .
 
Last edited:
The airforce faced the brunt of Siads paranoia because it was filled with allot of potential coup plotters as he saw it, so he limited training and flight times.

Yeah, this is a point that isn't brought up enough. Siad hamstrung his own air force (with the rest of the army) and they still ran roughshod over the Ogaden (and Kenya in the Rhamu Incident.)
 
Jesus Christ, I'm surprised we managed to push the Somalis out of the Ogaden! Ethiopia might collapse as a result of a Somali victory in the Ogaden and the Somalis are probably going to divide the spoils with the Eritreans and Tigreans. I don't see the West intervening so Ethiopia's pretty much gone and the Derg's members have been killed by the peasantry.

The EAF was doing well despite numerical inferiority. The F-5s were able to secure the airspace and hindered the progress of the Somali Army by attacking the supply lines, which bought enough time for the Soviet/ Cuban aid to arrive.
 
The EAF was doing well despite numerical inferiority. The F-5s were able to secure the airspace and hindered the progress of the Somali Army by attacking the supply lines, which bought enough time for the Soviet/ Cuban aid to arrive.
What do you think would happen had it been an Ethiopian Empire fighting against a Communist Somalia? Would the West provide material support?
 
Top