Countries which could have realistically been much more populous today?

I would have to say Ireland had other policies been taken post '22 (leaving aside of course a different outcome to the famine), a stronger economy would have reduced emigration which would have strengthened the economy and so on (for example with the stronger economy of the last 2 decades and predictions of the 2, the population has grown by over a million and predicted to grow by another million by 2040).
the pod was 1850, so avoiding some of the great famine (1845-1852) would have hugely increased irelands population.
the population of ireland (whole) in 1841 was 8,2M and 4,4M in 1921 (3M for Eire in 1922). so with no famine and ireland (republic) could be at 6-8M. with a limited famine 1M more population isn't unrealistic
 
Modern-day area of Finland.

Alleviate the damages caused by the famine years of 1866-68, and the butterflies start to fly en masse. Without the famines, the Great Migration years of massive immigration to United States that started immediately afterwards change as well. Combine this change with a different Russian policy towards the matter/and or with a more anti-Finnish attitude from the US immigration legislation, and percentage-wise the population of the region would be substantially higher than otl.

Immigration to Sweden too in later times.

But why the US might be anti-Finnish is odd. Because the Finns had a disproportionately high membership in the Socialist Party and other socialist groups? That would fall under some sort of proto-Red Scare which would have huge repercussions not just for Finnish immigration, but other races (Italians most likely).
 
In Poland, the government actually wondered themselves about their population without a Second World War and came up with the demand, that their representation in European institutions should not be based on their OTL Population of slightly below 40 Million, but on a hypothetical 66-million-Poland from an alternate timeline.
[http://www.zeit.de/online/2007/26/stimmrecht-polen-weltkrieg]

Serbia is another country which suffered massively demographically especially in WW1 and then to a lesser degree in WW2.
 

Archibald

Banned
Surely enough, Poland was butchered in WWII. Beside USSR it is the country that suffered the highest percentage of population casualties - military, resistance, civilian, jews together.
 
What about having WWI be delayed by a year or two and thus having Irish Home Rule pass in 1914-1915? Would an Ireland which remains a part of Britain--at least for a while--have a better and stronger economy and thus a greater population?

Given the remorseless population decline under the Union all signs point to no. Between 1901 and 1911, a time generally thought of as reasonably prosperous for Ireland, the population still fell by 2.6%.
 
Russia, if not for, well, everything. It was estimated in the aftermath of the Russo-Japanese War that by the year 2000 the population of the Russian Empire (more or less congruent with the territory of the USSR) would be around 450 million.

EDIT: Citations
"The Churchman, 17 November 1877" vol. 36 p. 551: "Should this rate continue to be as steady in the future as it has been for some time in the past, the population of European Russia would be in the year 2000 about 435 million; that of the most rapidly-growing Catholic state - Austro-Hungary - about 107,000,000.

Uyama, "Asiatic Russia, Imperial Power in Regional and International Contexts" p. 113: " 'It is necessary to remember,' wrote War Minister Kuropatkin, drawing on the calculations of Dmitrii Mendeleev [Bob note: the same guy who created the modern Periodic Table] 'that in the year 2000 the population of Russia will reach the level of 400 million. Even in the present we much prepare free lands in Siberia for at least a quarter of that number.' "


--Interesting side-note--

The June 13, 1907 publication of "The Youth's Companion" (volume 81, part 1, pg. 285) estimated a US population of around 311,000,000 in the year 2000, not too far off the actual figure of 281.5 million shown in the census data. Perhaps the true figure was even closer to the 1907 estimate allowing for the possibility that the census takers underestimated the population of illegal aliens.
 
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Deleted member 1487

With a PoD of 1850 or later, which countries--other than Germany and Russia--could have realistically been much more populous today?

Also, for the record, I am talking about countries in their current borders; thus, having a country be more populous because it keeps more territory certainly wouldn't count for this.

Anyway, any thoughts on this?
Italy. Had they avoided WW2 and kept Libya they could have had a significantly larger population.
 
Italy. Had they avoided WW2 and kept Libya they could have had a significantly larger population.

World War I killed way more Italians than World War II did. Plus preventing the south of Italy from draining population to the United States and Latin America might really help. Sicily in particular's demographics are ridiculous. But that would probably involve solving the "Southern Question" to some degree or another.
 
China, essentially almost immediately from 1850 onwards. If the Taiping Rebellion could be prevented, the most prosperous parts of China could be saved from absolute devastation and ~35 million people wouldn't die. That's about 100 million more modern day. Then you could prevent the Japanese occupation, which probably works out to about 80 million modern day. If we could get rid of the Great Leap that's another 100 million. I'm skeptical of the Chinese government's claims as to the success of the One Child Policy, but it certainly had an effect, so I would say you could tack on one last 100 million. If we round up to a nice even number, that puts us at 1.8 billion instead of 1.4. Of course, with so many extra people, China would probably be a fair but poorer, but on balance they'd have a brighter future.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
In Poland, the government actually wondered themselves about their population without a Second World War and came up with the demand, that their representation in European institutions should not be based on their OTL Population of slightly below 40 Million, but on a hypothetical 66-million-Poland from an alternate timeline.
[http://www.zeit.de/online/2007/26/stimmrecht-polen-weltkrieg]

Serbia is another country which suffered massively demographically especially in WW1 and then to a lesser degree in WW2.
That link about Poland is pretty interesting; indeed, I wonder which countries other than Poland and Russia had such counterfactual calculations done with their population:

https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol4/9/4-9.pdf
 

CaliGuy

Banned
China, essentially almost immediately from 1850 onwards. If the Taiping Rebellion could be prevented, the most prosperous parts of China could be saved from absolute devastation and ~35 million people wouldn't die. That's about 100 million more modern day. Then you could prevent the Japanese occupation, which probably works out to about 80 million modern day. If we could get rid of the Great Leap that's another 100 million. I'm skeptical of the Chinese government's claims as to the success of the One Child Policy, but it certainly had an effect, so I would say you could tack on one last 100 million. If we round up to a nice even number, that puts us at 1.8 billion instead of 1.4. Of course, with so many extra people, China would probably be a fair but poorer, but on balance they'd have a brighter future.
Would China have enough food for so many people, though?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
World War I killed way more Italians than World War II did. Plus preventing the south of Italy from draining population to the United States and Latin America might really help. Sicily in particular's demographics are ridiculous. But that would probably involve solving the "Southern Question" to some degree or another.
How exactly does one solve the "Southern Question," though?
 

CaliGuy

Banned

Russia, if not for, well, everything. It was estimated in the aftermath of the Russo-Japanese War that by the year 2000 the population of the Russian Empire (more or less congruent with the territory of the USSR) would be around 450 million.

EDIT: Citations
"The Churchman, 17 November 1877" vol. 36 p. 551: "Should this rate continue to be as steady in the future as it has been for some time in the past, the population of European Russia would be in the year 2000 about 435 million; that of the most rapidly-growing Catholic state - Austro-Hungary - about 107,000,000.

Uyama, "Asiatic Russia, Imperial Power in Regional and International Contexts" p. 113: " 'It is necessary to remember,' wrote War Minister Kuropatkin, drawing on the calculations of Dmitrii Mendeleev [Bob note: the same guy who created the modern Periodic Table] 'that in the year 2000 the population of Russia will reach the level of 400 million. Even in the present we much prepare free lands in Siberia for at least a quarter of that number.' "


--Interesting side-note--

The June 13, 1907 publication of "The Youth's Companion" (volume 81, part 1, pg. 285) estimated a US population of around 311,000,000 in the year 2000, not too far off the actual figure of 281.5 million shown in the census data. Perhaps the true figure was even closer to the 1907 estimate allowing for the possibility that the census takers underestimated the population of illegal aliens.
I mentioned both Russia and Germany in my OP here. :)

Also, though, do you have any other old references to population projections for various countries?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Modern-day area of Finland.

Alleviate the damages caused by the famine years of 1866-68, and the butterflies start to fly en masse. Without the famines, the Great Migration years of massive immigration to United States that started immediately afterwards change as well. Combine this change with a different Russian policy towards the matter/and or with a more anti-Finnish attitude from the US immigration legislation, and percentage-wise the population of the region would be substantially higher than otl.
Would having Russian Tsar Alexander III apply his Russification policies to Finland help with this?
 

Deleted member 1487

Would keeping Libya have helped in regards to the oil revenues producing more wealth for Italy?
Sure, but then by also making Libya an attractive settlement colony within the Italian-phone world for people that would have otherwise moved to the US to find work.
 
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