Jordan and Lebanon - I honestly do not know why it was created. Could easily have been a part of Syria.The discussion of countries that potentially could exist, but in our own timeline did not for whatever reason - whether different forms of countries that exist today, or nations for ethnic or regional groups that never received statehood OTL - is a common enough topic, but one I find of similar gravity is the opposite: countries that exist, but easily could have never come to be, particularly within the modern era. Granted there is a lot of wiggle room regarding empires that OTL collapsed simply not doing so, but nonetheless I find them interesting ideas to consider with regard to how sovereignty impacts national identity.
The purpose of this thread is, therefore, to discuss that - countries that in other timelines easily could not exist at all, and how that would impact the viewpoints of their would-be peoples and the state of the world itself.
Probably the most striking example to me is Armenia. If you avoid the collapse of the Russian Empire and have the Ottoman Empire go down a similar-to-OTL path regarding its non-Turkish minorities, then it's unlikely that Armenia would come to exist as anything more than an autonomous ethnic region of a reformed Russian state. Moreover, without an independent Armenia it seems unlikely that recognition of the Armenian Genocide would be nearly as widespread - comparisons with the Circassian Genocide seem more apt in such a scenario.
Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia - Though they had more people, especially Azerbaijan and Georgia, with an existing USSR or Russia integrating most of the USSR, they could have avoided to become independent
North Macedonia - Could have become Bulgarian or Serbian and Macedonia would be merely a region
Kosovo, Montenegro and Bosnia - Could all have become Serbian or remained Serbian.
Slovenia - Should they have remained with Austria rather than become a part of Yugoslavia
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania - the current Baltics only exist due to the Russian Civil War in 1918-1921. With their national identity created, the Soviet occupation was problematic. They are like the South Caucasus States but less populated hence better to keep in the Russian sphere
Belgium - I am honestly surprised that Belgium made it to the 20th century, let alone 2020. Remaining Dutch, annexed by France or divided seemed really possible (and desirable)
Saudi Arabia - Another Dynasty could have taken over. Probably one pro-Ottoman had the Ottomans avoided WW1.