Counter Point TL: AH focusses on Serbia in 1914

  • Thread starter Deleted member 1487
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Deleted member 1487

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=174905
Based on questions raised in the above thread, I thought it would be interesting to write two alternate TLs, obviously in very rough form to hash out ideas and broad themes, concurrently. I recommend reading the first thread to understand the general idea of what happened during AH mobilization in August 1914.

Just to be clear, the POD is the same, Potiorek being killed with FF in Sarajevo, leaving Archduke Eugene in command of the Serbian theater. However, here, as a contrary strategy, Conrad goes ahead an dispatches B-Staffel to Serbia, still sending 2 of the 6 corps to Galicia to form the Koevess group.

So we have a full offensive with weaker than historical 5th and 6th AH armies in Serbia, but a strong 2nd army attacking East of Belgrade down the Morova river valley, the economic life line of the nation, which happened to possess the only major rail line in Serbia (conveniently linked to Nish and Salonika, meaning it would cut the nation off from supply). The offensive would be launched August 15th.

I've attached a map of OTL 1914 plan if the 2nd army had stayed in the Balkans. Obviously it is photo shopped, as I've only read about it, never seen a map of it. The S and Uz groups are brigade and division size units of territorials and guerrillas that OTL served in each area to delay the AHs. I will post the OOB later tonight.

serbia 1914.jpg
 

Deleted member 1487

Here is the San-Dniester defense line that Conrad originally intended in Galicia. Here the Archduke Eugene helps convince Franz Josef to let Conrad defend until Serbia is defeated. The river line had several fortified crossings, for example at Jaroslaw, which had its own garrison force. The river line will be fortified, something that was not done OTL when plans changed. Here it will be and Przemysl will still be fortified to the same degree, but without AOK. Instead Conrad will be in Krakow while Kummer and Woyrsch cover the flank on the Vistula by trying to stir up trouble in Poland.

Moltke and the Germans panic of course when the Austrians refuse to draw off the Russians, but there is little to be done about it. OTL transfers still occur around the same time, as the German 8th army still need help.
I'm thinking of butterflying away some of the German losses in East Prussia that resulted from the permissive attitude of Prittwitz; here with the knowledge of the AHs not drawing off Russian forces by agreeing to attack, he would be more cautious and keep his forces on a tighter leash. This would curb the excesses of von Francois at Stallupönen, preventing an outright loss, but would convey the need to retreat all the same. So Prittwitz doesn't make his demoralized call to Moltke. Instead, he still appeals for reinforcements, but isn't sacked. Tannenberg still happens, but the Russian 9th army is available to take its place soon after, preventing the 1st Masurian lakes battle.

defense galicia.jpg
 

Deleted member 1487

Serbian Front OOB

AH Forces
Front reserve:
2 Bgds Landsturm

5th army:
XIII Corps-2 Divisions
+
1 Lst bgd, 2 marsch bdgs, 1 mt. bgd, 1 mt. artillery bgd

6th army:
XV Corps-2 Mt. Divisions (4 Mt. bgds)
XVI Corps-8 Mt. Bgds
+
1.5 Lst Bgds
1 Marsch Bgd

2nd army:
VIII Corps-2 Divisions
IV Corps-2 Divisions
VII Corps-2 Divisions
IX Corps-2 Divisions
+
4 Divisions
1 Cavalry Division
4 Marsch Bgds
~2 Bgds Jäger/Landsturm
+
12 Companies of siege artillery
+
15 companies of pioneers


Serb Forces:
1st army:
4 Inf Divisions
1 Cavalry

2nd army:
4 Inf Divisions

3rd Army:
2 Inf Divisions

Uzshitz Group:
~1 division of reserves/irregulars

Save Group:
~1 Brigade irregulars
 

Deleted member 1487

Russian Front

Kummer:
2 Inf Div
1 lst Bgd
1 Cav Div
1 mt. arty bgd
Polish Legion

Woyrsch:
2 Inf Div

1st army:
9 Inf Divs
2 Cav Divs
4 Lst Brgds
3 Marsch Bgds

Koevess:
9 Inf Divs
3 Cav Divs
5 Lst Bgds
3 Marsch Bgds
1 Mt. arty bgd

3rd army:
6 Inf Divs
3 Cav Divs
1 Sch. Bgd
3 Lst Bgd
4 Marsch Bgd
1 Mt. arty bgd

4th army:
7 Inf Divs
3 Marsch bgd
2 cav divs
1 mt. arty bgd
 
Well you protected the Oil Fields and the front in Galicia is pretty compact. As long as the 4th Russian Army does not succeed in flanking the 1st A-H Army it should work. However, it is a race against time, since once the 9th Russian Army forms southeast of Warsaw it could flank the A-H 1st if the German 9th Army is not formed first. However, many Generals did not see how powerful defenses had become. So we could see a situation where the Russians gain ground, but with unimaginable loss of life. They could potentially break their own moral, as the Russian levies were not the same as the professional armies on the Western Front.

In Serbia I guess it all depends on how much better of a Commander Eugene is then Potiorek, with a slightly better force. Oh, is Conrad still feeling chivalrous or is Putnik still in A-H hands?

Looks good, it will be interesting to see how this plays out.
 

Deleted member 1487

Well you protected the Oil Fields and the front in Galicia is pretty compact.
Do you have a map of Galician oil fields? I can't find them online and could use said image to help me with my TLs.

That said the offensive will begin on August 12th, with the AH 5th army crossing the Save and Drina rivers. The 6th army, due to its longer mobilization time, will attack a few days later on the south Drina near Uzhitse, while the 2nd army attacks on the 18th after heavy shelling by the siege guns and Danube flotilla, as well as bridging efforts and barge concentration. The Serbian army holds back from the borders to counter attack while the enemy forms bridgeheads. After minor skirmishes the 5th and 6th armies advance slowly, but once the 2nd army crosses the Danube and Save, the Serbian 1st and 2nd armies attack.

Putnik using the 2nd to attack West of Belgrade and the 1st to move of the Morava valley. Confronting a force superior in numbers and artillery the attack is risky, but political pressure demands Belgrade be defended; such an attack carries the potential to destroy the enemy when most vulnerable.

The assaults go forward, not catching Böhm-Ermolli's forces by surprise, as such a move was feared from the beginning. The Danube monitors and artillery set up across the rivers prove effective in holding back Serbian forces from the vulnerable bridgeheads, but the force of the rush rocks the defenders and inflicts significant casualties, creating a desperate situation. Eventually the attackers' firepower and numbers rule the day, forcing the Serbs to fall back after several days of bloody battle. The cautiousness engendered by the attacks prevent a prompt AH follow up, allowing the Serbs to retreat their forces into the interior of the country and draw out the campaign. It is the major fear of the AHs, whose diplomats start to court the Bulgarians to help. Much rests on whether the Galician front can hold before any major political developments occur in the Balkans. For the moment the victory buoys the public, especially as Belgrade falls amidst much destruction, slaking the thirst for revenge.


Entente shells arrive in Salonika to sustain the Serbs for the moment, but with nearly 400,000 AH soldiers pouring across the natural borders of the nation, the most populous areas and economic heartland seized, long term resistance will be difficult. Furthermore, the major deportations of the educated classes and paranoid spate of summary executions by the AHs prevent resistance from forming in their rear, nixing the hope of guerrilla warfare aiding in the campaign. Fears of Bulgarian intervention keep large numbers of soldiers locked near the border, as does unrest in newly won provinces.


The withdrawal of 4 AH divisions and the theater reserve (1 corps+2 independent divisions+2 Landsturm brigades) from the 2nd army for the Russian front seemingly aids the Serbs, but all it does is aid in supply for the AHs, as sustaining a large advancing force into the underdeveloped nation is difficult. Several pitched engagements occur throughout August and leading into September, as the Serbs try to throw the AHs back. Some tactical victories occur, as the Serbs maintain a favorable casualty ratio, but the AHs are not forced to retreat.

Operations against Montenegro heat up, drawing off the AH 6th army for some time, but even as the nation does not fall, it decides to solely defend its borders instead of further assisting Serbia after heavy losses. Even as Serbia survives well into September, the odds are only getting worse. Replacements are harder to find, as much of the population is behind enemy lines and the veteran soldiers of the Balkan wars are used up, especially as munition stocks fall dangerously low while the AH ones seem inexhaustible. Worrying signs mount that the Bulgarians are entering the war soon. The question remains whether the Serbs can survive until October.
 
Once the campaign goes into October you might see a small French expedition (say 1 infantry and 1 cavalry div) sent to help either through Salonika or Albania.

I once saw a map of the Galician oil fields and they looked to be spread out around Sambor.
 
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Do you have a map of Galician oil fields? I can't find them online and could use said image to help me with my TLs.

Here you go:
http://www.shtetlinks.jewishgen.org/drohobycz/maps/maps.asp

Scroll down to the bottom the whole map of Galicia is bad, but the two Eastern and Western half maps are zoomed in. The Oil Fields all run on a giant bow in the south of the province.

Update: Well I should of read Tom_B's post, sorry. I am not sure if the Operation Unicorn thread is still going on, but OTL the Russians ignored the Oil fields (I am not even sure if they used the already pumped oil). Here is some additional information:

After 1913 aroound 80% of Galician oil came from the Boryslaw and Tustanowice Oil Fields. In 1913 Boryslaw was producing 1.5 Million barrels down from 1.7 Million in 1909. Tustanowice was producing 5 Million barrels down from its high of 12 Million in 1909. Generally production would flucuate 10% up or down in a given year, but by the late teens and early 20s all Galician production started to collapse. Oh, the third field in Galicia was Bithow which produced only 275,000 barrels a year in 1913. The numbers in the Operation Unicorn thread look closer to metric tons and not barrels, I am not sure if that is what they wanted. Just for comparision purposes the Moreni Oil fields in Romania (largest ones in that country) was producing around 4 Million Barrels a year.

Austria-Hungary did not have good refining capability, they were trying to get over 3.5 Million Barrels a year, but their all time high was 2.7 Million in 1912. Romania had much better refining capability. The Steava Romana refinery could refine 5 Million barrels a year (about 15,000 a day) by itself.

I am not so sure about Austria-Hungary consumption, I have seen anything from just below 100,000 barrels a year to just over 285,000 barrels a year. It had to be very low, because the government of Austria-Hungary went to great lengths to prop up the price of oil. They had the navy stock piling Oil and all military trains were supposed to be converted to using oil to drive up consumption. The price of oil got so low that in both 1904 and 1910 there were strikes by the workers because of low pay.
 
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Deleted member 1487

Here you go:
http://www.shtetlinks.jewishgen.org/drohobycz/maps/maps.asp

Scroll down to the bottom the whole map of Galicia is bad, but the two Eastern and Western half maps are zoomed in. The Oil Fields all run on a giant bow in the south of the province.

Update: Well I should of read Tom_B's post, sorry. I am not sure if the Operation Unicorn thread is still going on, but OTL the Russians ignored the Oil fields (I am not even sure if they used the already pumped oil). Here is some additional information:

After 1913 aroound 80% of Galician oil came from the Boryslaw and Tustanowice Oil Fields. In 1913 Boryslaw was producing 1.5 Million barrels down from 1.7 Million in 1909. Tustanowice was producing 5 Million barrels down from its high of 12 Million in 1909. Generally production would flucuate 10% up or down in a given year, but by the late teens and early 20s all Galician production started to collapse. Oh, the third field in Galicia was Bithow which produced only 275,000 barrels a year in 1913. The numbers in the Operation Unicorn thread look closer to metric tons and not barrels, I am not sure if that is what they wanted. Just for comparision purposes the Moreni Oil fields in Romania (largest ones in that country) was producing around 4 Million Barrels a year.

Austria-Hungary did not have good refining capability, they were trying to get over 3.5 Million Barrels a year, but their all time high was 2.7 Million in 1912. Romania had much better refining capability. The Steava Romana refinery could refine 5 Million barrels a year (about 15,000 a day) by itself.

I am not so sure about Austria-Hungary consumption, I have seen anything from just below 100,000 barrels a year to just over 285,000 barrels a year. It had to be very low, because the government of Austria-Hungary went to great legnths to prop up the price of oil. They had the navy stock piling Oil and all military trains were supposed to be converted to using oil to drive up consumption. The price of oil got so low that in both 1904 and 1910 there were strikes by the workers because of low pay.

Thanks, that is all extremely valuable to know. I'd be curious as to how many locomotives were run on oil OTL because coal became a major issue for these engines, both because of the lack of the resource and the removal of the copper boxes, which allowed for higher temperatures and therefore higher speeds in trains. The slower running speeds and crappy iron boxes that replaced them wore out the rails quicker and reduced supply to the front.
 
Thanks, that is all extremely valuable to know. I'd be curious as to how many locomotives were run on oil OTL because coal became a major issue for these engines, both because of the lack of the resource and the removal of the copper boxes, which allowed for higher temperatures and therefore higher speeds in trains. The slower running speeds and crappy iron boxes that replaced them wore out the rails quicker and reduced supply to the front.

Considering the slow speed of change in Austria-Hungary I assuming it was a low number. Also, the Navy stockpile order did not happen until 1910, and the Military trains order happened around the same time. They probably just said all new military trains had to run on oil. As you mentioned before A-H did not turn out many trains a year. However, if say A-H were to keep the oil fields this may cause the government to speed up the transition by replacing older engines to lower coal consumption. There are probably other areas where they could force the change from coal to oil to lower coal usage. Even with the high estimate of consumption A-H could triple oil consumtion and still be exporting almost 1.8 Million barrels to Germany. Essentially, anything Austria-Hungary did not use was sent to Germany. In a weird change you could have a situation where the German Armies on the Eastern Front might become motorized as they could get refined Oil shipped from Galicia directly. Though that probably would be an unrealistic change.
 

Deleted member 1487

Galicia

The Galician front was easily the most crucial for both Russia and AH in 1914, as it would determine whether or not the war would be won "before the leaves fell". Ivanov, the Southwest Front commander was quoted, perhaps apocryphally (ITTL), stating that the road to Berlin ran through Budapest. As it was, the Russians were to bring massive forces to bear on AH in August, with major reinforcements available from September onward. AH was viewed as the weaker enemy, despite their greater number of divisions on the Eastern Front, an opinion only enhanced by the maintenance of their 2nd army in Serbia.

In August the Russians were prepared to go on the offensive even if the AHs attacked them, but military intelligence, mainly determined by reports from Ruthenian AH civilians more loyal to their Slavic brothers, reported that AH forces were setting up on the defensive. Generals Ruszki and Brusilov, the commanders of the major attack force of the invasion, thought this was a ruse and relied on pre-war intelligence stating that the AHs were going to attack into the Ukraine. Ivanov only supported this perception and threw his forces into Galicia with the goal of achieving a decisive battle.

Despite German fears, it appeared the Russians were going to attack AH regardless of their passive stance, something that caused significant relief at OHL in Luxembourg once signals intercepts were passed on. AH intercepts also confirmed this, which caused Conrad to order that the San-Dniester line be 'prepared' by removing all civilians from the battle zone and clear fields of fire be prepared. Villages and forests were razed to the ground and trenches lines prepared for AH troops. Bridges were blown all over the areas of Galicia to be abandoned, AH administrators evacuated, horses and rolling stock were evacuated, and as many crops as possible purchased and removed from area of Russia advance. Disorder was left behind for the Russians as even gendarme and police forces were evacuated for use with the army.

Despite this seemingly favorable situation, AH military training had been geared solely toward offensive warfare, leaving many soldiers and officers unclear about the best way to conduct a defense and uncomfortable about their 'ignoble and unheroic' stance. It would degrade effectiveness once the battle was joined and reduced morale by abandoning so much land, including the 4th largest city in the empire and the administrative capital of Galicia, Lemberg. Indeed the declaring of the city as 'open' caused a fall in the Empire's prestige across the world and consternation both in the Empire and the Imperial court. Franz Josef was furious that he had to endure such humiliation*.

The Russian invasion commenced on August 26th, when the Russian 3rd and 8th armies invaded East Galicia, where they promptly overran Tarnopol and Brody. Further north the 4th army crossed the border around the same time, though the move through the Tarnew woods near the confluence of the San and Vistula delayed and disorganized the Russians. The 5th army took longer to mobilize and move out, which saw it only reach the AH border around August 30th, lagging significantly behind. All Russian forces had their goals, the 4th had Przemysl, the 5th Lemberg and then Sambor, the 3rd, Lemberg and the8 Styrj, and 8th Tarnopol and Stanislau, with further forces later to take secondary targets. When it was discovered that the AHs abandoned most of Galicia, movement forward became less cautious, as it was obvious where the AHs were waiting. Each captured major city was officially proclaimed part of the Russian Empire after a military ceremony, with the Czar arriving later to sanctify the annexation. All this further hurt AH credibility, but they were waiting for victory over Serbia before responding.

The wild advance had overextended the Russian forces, as rail heads were tens of miles behind the front and infrastructure had been sabotaged. A government had to be organized in the wake of the chaos left by the fleeing AH administrators. All this distracted from the goal: defeating the AHs and saving Serbia. But once the Russians actually did meet the AHs in battle, attempting to bounce their MLR, they simply bounced back. The defenses were too strong and the Russian advance had been confined between the Vistula and Dniester, right into the AH scheme. Though badly outnumbering their foe, artillery and munitions wagons lagged far behind the infantry and cavalry, preventing a breach of the trenches. Additionally food and other supplies were stretched beyond their limit, meaning that any advance was impossible even if the rivers could be crossed. Nevertheless the size of the Russian advance and the length of the front prompted Conrad to remove several units for the Balkans for use in Galicia.

In Central Poland the Kummer and Woyrsch groups were finding their reception less than enthusiastic, meaning their mission of raising revolts had failed. Now they had to contend with the Russian 9th army, as it advanced against them on August 26th. There was a bitter debate in the Russian command about whether it should head it East Prussia or Galicia, as it could tip the scales either way, with both the Northwest and Southwest Fronts demanding STAVKA give them the force. For the moment it would advance into Poland and be given orders to head north, south, or straight into Silesia later. September brought no more resolution to the debate, as the Russian 2nd army was defeated at Tannenberg and the Russian forces in Galicia stymied. The French wanted Silesia invaded and both Front commanders had valid points about its use. Paralyzed by the options for the moment it just pushed back the joint Austro-German force.


*This is the most unlikely part of this TL; Serbia could be left to wait, but the willful abandonment of Galicia is such a blow to the Empire diplomatically and politically that it is unlikely to be allowed by Franz Josef. He was an old school monarch, who was fixated on form and perception, rather than cold, hard realities. That was the Habsburg way, which even OTL played out in the organization of the war economy, a painful farce, which, thanks to Habsburg style, often hurt the conduct of the war. I am allowing it here simply to explore the option, but it is extremely unlikely. This is also partly the reason FJ told Conrad to attack even with insufficient force OTL, because a defensive stance would mean abandoning this major province. Because of this I consider my other ATL the most likely option rather than this.
 

Deleted member 1487

Galicia October 1st

Russians form 7th army, Pflanzer-Baltin forms early with some of the reinforcements from the Balkans and Koevess Group, plus come October the OTL units from Transylvania.

Little movement at the front.

Black circles are AH fortifications, mainly fortified bridges, which had their own garrisons OTL and TTL. There are two more that I could not find on the map.

oct 1st galicia.jpg
 

Deleted member 1487

Poland September 5th

Russian 2nd army is reforming after Tannenberg.

Woyrsch is reinforced by the Posen, Breslau, Graudenz, and Thorn garrisons (which were formed into Landwehr corps), while Kummer receives improvised artillery units, another Landsturm division and several Landsturm territorial brigades.

Russian 9th army receives more reserve divisions (far less useful than active units-less equipment and training). It still out muscled its opponents by a significant margin, which is why when it pressed on Lodz, Prittwitz (not replaced by Hindenburg here) is forced to some of his new units from the West to deal with it. The Reserve Guard corps and 3rd cavalry corps were dispatched to the newly formed 9th army under Woyrsch, while the 8th army soon found itself under assault by the combined power of the Russian 1st and 10th armies. Using field works and natural features to maximize their forces, Prittwitz's 8th army held back the Russian tide after some difficulties. Losses halted the Russian thrusts, which last from September 12th to the 25th.

Further south the command roles had been reversed, as Kummer was now under Woyrsch's command thanks to the expansion of his forces, but their professional working relationship held up under the arrangement. The Russian 9th crossed the Warta river by September 9th, fighting Kummer and Woyrsch's forces all the way. The garrison forces from the north and 8th army reinforcements turned to tide by attacking toward Lodz after the 10th from the direction of Posen and Thorn. Outnumbered for the first time Leschitzky, general of the Russian 9th army, fell back, skillfully keeping his forces intact and out of a German "Kessel". Despite acquitting themselves well, the forces of the Russian 9th were still worn down in the retreat. AH forces were similarly attrited, but the Germans came off the best. Falling back toward Warsaw, Russian reinforcements found themselves caught up in the pull back, but once supply difficulties gripped the Germans, a new Russian line was established midway between Lodz and Warsaw.

In September the Russian Front commander's realized that central Poland needed more forces, both to protect Warsaw and take the fight to the enemy. The reformed 2nd army would advance north of the Vistula against Thorn, while a new 4th army, built from units withdrawn from Galicia, would be established near Ivangorod to advance on Krakow and cover the 9th army already in Poland. A small 11th army would also be created to confront the Kummer Group and cover the gap between the 9th and 4th armies. All this take time to develop, so as offensive operations were maintained against the Germans and AHs at both ends of the front, these redeployment would take place. It would not be ready until mid-October.

Poland 5th.jpg
 

Deleted member 1487

As Russian forces redeployed, it eased their supply crisis in Galicia, finally allowing the new rail lines built after the invasion to bring up enough artillery shells to make a focused effort to breach AH defenses. Though clashes had already occurred, especially around the fortified bridgeheads the AHs had built prewar around cities like Jaroslaw, which had its how fortress artillery with calibers above 20cm, Russian and AH forces had not been able to shift each other much. AH efforts had been anemic thanks to their limited manpower and artillery vis-a-vis their opponent, but the Russians' had also been equally faint, except for Brusilov's and Baron Salza's (Russian 4th army, not replaced here because there was no battle of Krasnik) thrusts against the Dniester and San respectively. The AHs had held easily, even around their bridgeheads, but they ached to take the offensive; however the Serbian campaign had bogged down in the wild interior of the Balkan state, preventing anything but limited tactical efforts.

These minor battles impressed on both sides the need for artillery support and lavish ammunition supplies, something the Russians were just starting to receive. The AHs, while having decent enough supply lines, especially after efforts were being made behind the Carpathians to upgrade the rail lines emanating north from Budapest through the mountain passes, pre-war supplies were much smaller than the Russian ones and industry was still unable to produce more than 20,000 shells of all calibers a month. The lack of explosive materials was crippling and the Germans, the main source of AH shells prewar, needed every shell for themselves. At least their defensive stance allowed them to conserve their stocks for now.

In October matters changed drastically, as Russian assaults, first against AH bridgeheads and later against the gap between the San and Dniester near Przemysl, increased at an alarming rate. Shell munition expenditure rates rose to unsustainable levels, forcing batteries only to use less than ten shells a day. The Russians were also limited, but not nearly as much. As the bridgeheads fell, the weight of the Russian attacks shifted to the center of the front near Grodek, where, despite furious counter attacks and much bravery by the defenders, the front folded back until it stood at the outer defenses around Przemysl to the West and Felsztyn and Sambor in the East. An unsightly bulge now protruded between the San and Dniester on both general staffs' maps. By late October the Russian surge had burned itself out after massive expenditures of lives and shells. Both sides were battered, but the AHs held for the moment. Reserves had been entirely committed, necessitating further withdrawals from the Balkan front, resulting in another corps and a cavalry division being transferred. Furthermore the need to reinforce and upgrade the Kummer group to the 7th army, resulted in much of AH cavalry and several divisions being skimmed off the battle line in Galicia for service in Poland.

Signals intercepts had alerted AOK and Ober Ost (created in October under Prittwitz) about Russian troop transfers and the formation of new armies behind the Vistula, which both Conrad and Prittwitz were eager to inform Falkenhayn about in Berlin, when they met him for a conference in early October. Claiming truthfully that neither had enough forces to fully confront a Russian thrust on from central Poland, Falkenhayn had to make hard choices about troop deployments. At this time he intended to use his newly formed reserve corps as a trump card to breach Entente lines near Ypres, but the threat of Russian assault overrunning Silesia or Prussia was too much of a risk to take. These green units would be deployed to the Eastern Front in late October and, after some reorganization of units, would allow for a 10th army to be formed at Graudenz. German forces in the West instead now only had parity with their Entente foe, meaning they settled into defensive positions once skirmishing with them near Ypres. A heavy offensive was just not possible without these corps.

Though Falkenhayn would remain a Westerner at heart, that is he believed the war would be won in the West, he would be forced to focus on the Eastern front to crush Russian offensive power to allow him a free hand to attack France. Once the front settled in the West, he would turn his attentions East. In the meantime he was able to pressure the diplomatic corps to seal the Bulgarian deal to free up AH forces trapped there for use in the East. Already well advanced after complex dealing, the Bulgarians agreed to enter the war on October 15th once mobilization was complete. Serbia's days were numbered.

Attached is a map of Przemysl's defensive ring to give an idea of where the Russians have advanced to.

Przemysl_Map_WWI.png
 

Deleted member 1487

The Fall of Serbia

From October 1st to the entry of Bulgaria into the war on the 15th, the AHs drove hard into the Serbian positions along to Morava valley, making some progress. However, with the increasing Russian pressure in Galicia the 2nd army staff and further forces were transferred to the Eastern Front to take over from Koevess. Koevess in turn found himself in Serbia, taking command of the remaining forces of B-Staffel, which was renamed the army of the Morava. The entry of the Bulgarians sealed Serbia's fate, as they used their 1st and 2nd armies to collapse the weak forces opposing them. Severing their link with Salonika, the Bulgarians drove into the crucial hinterland in Macedonia and the area near Nish, with its national armory. Though the campaign dragged on into November, it had become a pursuit battle into Albania, as civilians and military personnel sought evacuation on the Adriatic coast.

From November 1st the Morava army was transferred to the Eastern Front, while the Bulgarians and AH 5th and 6th armies pursued the Serbs into the Albanian mountains. Even after the successful, though costly, retreat of the Serbs to the coast, the AH 5th and 6th remained to mop up the remaining resistance and finish off Montenegro. It wasn't until December that the Balkan front was wrapped up and all remaining divisions were sent East. Archduke Eugene remained with 60,000 Landsturm and elderly reservists to administer the General Government of Occupied Serbia. De-nationalization process was soon to begin in AH Serbia, while the Bulgarians outlawed Serb as a language in their newly won provinces. The Serbs remained on the coast until February when French and British ships evacuated the survivors to Corfu where they were rehabilitated. Eventually they would sent to Russia via Arkhangelsk where they would serve in Ukraine against the AHs.

From November on the gates to Istanbul stood open and German supplies could flow to their new Ottoman allies in the struggles in the Middle East and Caucasus. The Bulgarians were able to demobilize large segments of their armies, but a guard remained on the Greek border and in occupation in Macedonia. The fall of Serbia brought other benefits as well, as Romania, even with the death of the pro-German monarch, expanded trade with the Central Powers and limited trade to Russia. In Greece the power of the pro-German faction rose, though it maintained neutrality in most matters to appease the naval and trade power of the Entente. Italy was somewhat cowed by the victory and the situation on the Eastern Front, preventing it (for now) from ceasing trade with AH and Germany and making demands about the Italian minority in AH.

On the Eastern Front the resulting troop transfers saw the upgrading of Pflanzer-Baltin's group to the status of 5th army, while the 6th army was the new name of army group Rohr on the Italian frontier. The last units from the 5th and 6th army were transferred to the new 5th army in Bukowina, making it considerably more powerful with three new corps comprising 6 divisions, including the powerful XV and XVI corps, which totaled 12 mountain brigades between them.

Fall Serbia.jpg
 
Thanks for the update.

Expanding Romanian trade would be easy to do, and make it potentially unlikely Romania will joiin the Entente. From the Cambridge Economic History of Europe Volume 8 Ch. 12:

In 1884 A-H accounted for 44% of Romania's imports and Germany 15%. Then Hungary forced a trade war with Romania, so A-H's percentage of imports dropped. However, Germany essentially took up the slack, so by 1910 A-H had 24% and Germany 34% of Romania's imports. Therefore, right before the war the Central Powers already accounted for 58% of Romania's imports.

From the other thread, which should of been posted here:

However, the wildcard this TTL brings up is when Wiking said Romania expands trade. Now you could have Ottoman Ships flying under Romanian flags, or even actual Romanian ships sailing between Constanta and Constantinople. This would put Russia and the French and British subs that sneak into the Black Sea in a bind. They could sink the Romanian flagged ships, but that might push Romania to declare war on Russia. Her army might not be the best, but right now the last thing the Russians need is 500,000 more men to fight against

Also of importance in regarding Romanian sea trade:
The timeline has not addressed the Black Sea, so it should be a Russian lake effectively speaking (a few Ottoman ships with the Russians raiding the commerce). The Black Sea fleet capitol ships were 5 Pre-Dreadnoughts, and in mid-1915 they would gain two Dreadnoughts. The Goeben is a Battlecruiser and the Breslau is only a light cruiser. Those ships together could cause a problem for 1 maybe 2 Russian Pre-Dreadnoughts, but more than that would most likely mean the sinking of the German-Turkish ships. It is for that reason that the Russians tended to sail all five as one fleet knowing that the German ships could not touch them.
 
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I guess a Gallipoli Campaign would be kind of stupid for the Entente here, with Greece Pro-Central Powers nuetral and an open railway to the Ottoman Empire. Not to mention would the Germans consider sending more soldiers to aid the Ottomans in their fight against the British?
 
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