Prevent the rise of Muscovy in the 1500's. As long as the Russian principalities could remain weak and divided, the Cossack hosts may have time to flourish on their own.
No, I think the best way is to prevent the decline of the PLC, and have it and Muscovy remain major powers. That way, the Zaporozhians can continue to play the two off against each other.
Lithuania-Novgorod perhaps.The Union predates the flourishing of the Sich, but something like a Cossack state may arise there or somewhere in the area regardless.
At the same time, something needs to contain the Nogays and the Tatars, and if the PLC isn't it, what is?
The Union predates the flourishing of the Sich, but something like a Cossack state may arise there or somewhere in the area regardless.
At the same time, something needs to contain the Nogays and the Tatars, and if the PLC isn't it, what is?
Lithuania-Novgorod perhaps.
Grain supplies in Novgorod go through central Russia, and not through Belarus in XIV-XV century, Grand Prince of Moscow Novgorod constantly blackmailed by this. These developments is only possible if the Lithuanian control Zalesie or absence of a single center there.
Orthodox-Lithuania like Vladislav's TL proposes could to the trick of a Cossack state with a partner powerful enough to keep the Tatars from launching serious invasions.
Maybe have them take the Lower Dniepr fortresses and move the focus of conflict south into the Pontic steppe instead of the Steppe Road through the Donets.
Hm.
Cossacks are in this case the population of the frontier, which is going the east, and the Lithuanian-Russian administration and farmers are well into the Cossacks. Stable Cossack state can not be formed ITTL
The Dniepr isn't the only place where it can develop. I'm not sure about a stable state but a distinct society seems almost guaranteed to me by the 16th c.
Rus hegemonic aims to control the Astrakhan (Astrakhan - the most important point of trade between Persia and Eastern Europe). The shortest route between Astrakhan and the Dnieper basin passes through Astrakhan-Volgograd-Don, Azov-Black Sea-Kherson. Trade will go this route until the railways.The Don will still remain a frontier.