There's a decent chance that Nazi support would have collapsed had Hindenberg, Papen, and company held firm and continued Article 48 rule or held another snap election instead of cutting a deal with Hitler.
IMO a - possibly - much "better" moment to "hold firm" would have been in April/May 1932 for Hindenburg, NOT to sack Brüning.
Possible run of events :
- Brüning cuts an even better deal on the Lausanne conference about the reparations. Hell, even v.Papen got the offer of rendering the infamous article 231 (about the war guilt) inactive at least, as well as a declaration about recognizing germanys equality on the dearmament negotiation in Geneva (essentially what Streiche got in December that year).
- But this bloke managed to blow it
- with this "success" (low to nil further reparations, recognizing germany equality on armament [first step to abandon part V of the ToV on arms], abondoning of the "war guilt" clause of the ToV), he strikes a deal with the SPD to continue his reign with the promise of using the "freed of reparations" budget to initiate a work-creation program
- with the "success" of ITTL Lausanne Brünings position with Hindenburg might also be reaffirmed and he could go on longer
However, with these results, together with a though slowly but already indicated end of the worst of the economic situation in late 1932 he would have IMO been also able to dare a new election in autumn/winter 1932, which with gains for Center, DNVP and perhaps SPD would/could secure his way of running the country for some more time.
The NSDAP would go mad, become even more criminalized and get bankrupt.
The Nazi party had lost seats in the November 1932 election, and internal Nazi memos show a fear that their support would continue to slip if they didn't manage to seize full power before the next election. 1. They'd overextended themselves financially, and their status as the largest parliamentary party made them less appealing as a target for the 2. protest votes that had formed a large portion of their electoral support.
I can agree with
1. the financial overextension
but much lesser with
2. of being a less "attractive" protest party
It was rather the opposite . The voters "left" the NSDAP because it did not deliver, what was expected :
participation in a goverment
Due to Hitler "all or nothing" attitude despite several offers for the party to participate, though not with Hitler as chancellor, many of the voters were dissapointed ... and returned to their former "right-wing" champion DNVP, which had at least shown the willingness to and at times actually did in the past participate in ruling the country.
Many within the NSDAP were "uneasy" with Hitlers stance as well btw. What let to the sacking of Gregor Strasser.