Could the USSR Have Defeated Nazi Germany Without the Help of the Western Allies?

Could the USSR have defeated Nazi Germany without the help of the Western Allies?

  • Yes

    Votes: 88 36.1%
  • No

    Votes: 85 34.8%
  • Maybe

    Votes: 71 29.1%

  • Total voters
    244
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No...? Say what you like about Stalin, and I can say a lot, but he wasn't a coward, and staid in the Kremlin against some of his subordinates' advice.

Just said what I heard, dude.

But If the Germans take Moscow and the Kremlin, Stalin is dead one way or the other. Which will make the Soviet situation much worse now that they lack a leader.
 
Just said what I heard, dude.

But If the Germans take Moscow and the Kremlin, Stalin is dead one way or the other. Which will make the Soviet situation much worse now that they lack a leader.

Debatable. Stalin was responsible for some dumb decisions, and there were people in the politburo and military circles smarter than him in such matters. Of course, in the event of Moscow being taken, which IMO is unlikely, this would hardly matter, given the morale problem. I also believe that Stalin would escape anyway if things got too bleak. He wasn't utterly stupid.
 
Debatable. Stalin was responsible for some dumb decisions, and there were people in the politburo and military circles smarter than him in such matters. Of course, in the event of Moscow being taken, which IMO is unlikely, this would hardly matter, given the morale problem. I also believe that Stalin would escape anyway if things got too bleak. He wasn't utterly stupid.

If we take into account all the things going for the Germans and against the Soviets, Id be willing to bet the Germans will take it. But holding it is a completly different matter, since the Soviets will make liberating Moscow their utmost priority.
 
If we take into account all the things going for the Germans and against the Soviets, Id be willing to bet the Germans will take it. But holding it is a completly different matter, since the Soviets will make liberating Moscow their utmost priority.
How? If Moscow is captured, the railway hub of the entire region is in German hands. There's no way the Russians can transport enough men and material to kick the Germans out at that point.
 
How? If Moscow is captured, the railway hub of the entire region is in German hands. There's no way the Russians can transport enough men and material to kick the Germans out at that point.

Depends on the losses the Germans suffer. It's concievable that the costs of such an operation could bring their logistics and forces there to breaking point, as a best case scenario for the Soviets.
 
How? If Moscow is captured, the railway hub of the entire region is in German hands. There's no way the Russians can transport enough men and material to kick the Germans out at that point.

Exactly what BlackWave said. Its posibble we see several battles over who gets control over Moscow. Maybe turning it into Stalingrad. Im not willing to bet the Germans would have time to reinforce+fortify Moscow enough before the Sovs would try to liberate it. Only if the Germans took it just before the winter kicks in.
 
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I don't know about the part of Axis air superiority. The main reason the Germans were able to destroy the Soviet air capacity was because they caught so many planes on the ground in the opening stages of the war. If the surprise of Barbarossa wasn't kept, then I would doubt that the advantage of OTL would be kept. However, like you said, the Germans do still have expanded manpower and industry that they did not have in OTL.

Even without catching Sov planes on the ground, the Luftwaffe should be able to establish air superiority rather quickly. Biplanes such as the I-15 still made up a significant portion of the Soviet Air Force, and the I-16 was a good but not great counter to Luftwaffe fighters.
 
Lend lease made a huge contribution the Soviet ability to "respawn" in OTL. Without it, you could easily diminish their post-Barbarrosa numbers severly. This was stated by several people on this tread.

The Germans will basically have uncontested air power, they will have much more troops available, Germany will not get bombed, they wont have to spend lots of resources on the Atlantic wall, etc. Butterflies caused by these conditions are definately not "unimportant".
Things wouldnt be like OTL in 1941., much less in 1943.

This is not supported by the facts. LL Only accounted for about 10% of the Russian war effort through out all years and most of that didn't arrive until the last couple of years when it was not that critical. The only component that was critical was the value added component that allowed Stalin to balance the books visa-vie cash for the LL programme in the middle of 1942. With out that pressure they could duplicate what the Germans did and base every thing on credit , which means they can fight on.

The German money/credit spent on the Altantic wall was extra programmes, as was the massive production needed for 1944 on , which is why they are all refered to as emergency programmes. With out the need they will not be built and Germany in a better position finacially. However the Red Army was already fighting and winning against 80% of the Wehrmacht through until 1944 and only changed that when the second front appeared immenant in 1944.

Even without Baku fuel , the Red Army still has as much annual fuel production as Germany, so they can fight to a stalemate or as far as reestablish boarders and even carve out a buffer zone out of Eastern Europe.
 
This is not supported by the facts. LL Only accounted for about 10% of the Russian war effort through out all years and most of that didn't arrive until the last couple of years when it was not that critical. The only component that was critical was the value added component that allowed Stalin to balance the books visa-vie cash for the LL programme in the middle of 1942. With out that pressure they could duplicate what the Germans did and base every thing on credit , which means they can fight on.

The German money/credit spent on the Altantic wall was extra programmes, as was the massive production needed for 1944 on , which is why they are all refered to as emergency programmes. With out the need they will not be built and Germany in a better position finacially. However the Red Army was already fighting and winning against 80% of the Wehrmacht through until 1944 and only changed that when the second front appeared immenant in 1944.

Even without Baku fuel , the Red Army still has as much annual fuel production as Germany, so they can fight to a stalemate or as far as reestablish boarders and even carve out a buffer zone out of Eastern Europe.

I do believe other people have posted concrete examples on how Lend lease helped the SU greatly. Look at some older posts.

1944. is not going to play out as OTL. Not even 1941. could be expected to play out the same.
 
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I think unless the Nazis could wipe out the Soviet command hierarchy in the initial invasion, the Soviets would win. Germany did not have the industrial capacity for a long-term war, so they needed a quick win. The Soviets could have won without Allied help, but it would have taken longer & been much more costly. Who knows? The Soviets could have ended up like Britain, winning the war but struggling to hold on afterwards.
 
Thanks for that list of lend lease stuff. To approximate 9,000 RR cars & 1200 steam locomotives, plus lots of wheel sets etc. Look at all the rails that were sent. Basically the steel & factory type/space & workers needed to produce just these absolutely essential bits of equipment are more or less the same to produce trucks or tanks. Can the USSR produce these on their own absent lend lease, sure but what DON'T they produce to make these. And if they don't make these RR bits, then their ability to transport troops, tanks, etc, etc if vastly diminished. Look at all that leather that was sent. Unlike the RR equipment, the leather sent could not be replaced by shifting production lines. Leather=boots.

Remember that one of the problems with the sea mammal that shall not be named is that even with a POD long before 1939 is that if the Germans devote industrial capacity to making stuff for that plan, other stuff doesn't get made.

amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics
 
I think unless the Nazis could wipe out the Soviet command hierarchy in the initial invasion, the Soviets would win. Germany did not have the industrial capacity for a long-term war, so they needed a quick win. The Soviets could have won without Allied help, but it would have taken longer & been much more costly. Who knows? The Soviets could have ended up like Britain, winning the war but struggling to hold on afterwards.

Yes Germany was not geared up for a total war of attrition despite what some might have you believe, primarily because Hitler changed the strategic plan in 1936 from a total war capability by the mid 1940s, to a limited war capability in 1939/40. He was too impatient to wait.


Because Hitler really didn't believe that the Europeans could hang together, He instead believed he could isolate and attack each enemy sequentially and conquer Europe that way. He believed a total war would eventually come to Europe by 1943/45 period.

So yes if the total war with Russia can wait until 1943, then German could be made ready to win such a war, if they can arrange to fight such a war on one front at a time. Otherwise they would have to make do with their superior doctrine of mechanized operational maneuver, combined with Hitler’s unbeatable will power and German racial superiority. Needless to say the only part of Hitler’s strategy that actually had any substance, was the superior doctrine and troop morale/training.

The superior operational maneuver doctrine relied on "Auftragstaktik", which featured nearly untrammeled authority to allow freedom of decision up and down the chain of command. When Hitler took over C-in-C position of the OKW and sacked his top Panzer Generals after the failure at the gates of Moscow, he sent a chilling message up and down the line, that loyalty to the Furher was far more important than the doctrine of Auftragstaktik. From that point on the war was his to lose, because pretty much every thing that happened only did so on his authority. This was the complete oppositie of Auftragstaktik. In that sence Hitler now had untrammeled authority to wage the war he sought, like some wargamer.



"Auftragstaktik" http://www.ducimus.com/Archive/auftrags-oleary.htm

If you want an more objective look at the impact of LL on Soviet war economy read Harrison study on Soviet war effort.

http://eh.net/bookreviews/library/0173

Heres another Harrison paper
http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/workingpapers/publications/twerp603.pdf
 
Thanks for that list of lend lease stuff. To approximate 9,000 RR cars & 1200 steam locomotives, plus lots of wheel sets etc. Look at all the rails that were sent. Basically the steel & factory type/space & workers needed to produce just these absolutely essential bits of equipment are more or less the same to produce trucks or tanks. Can the USSR produce these on their own absent lend lease, sure but what DON'T they produce to make these. And if they don't make these RR bits, then their ability to transport troops, tanks, etc, etc if vastly diminished. Look at all that leather that was sent. Unlike the RR equipment, the leather sent could not be replaced by shifting production lines. Leather=boots.

Remember that one of the problems with the sea mammal that shall not be named is that even with a POD long before 1939 is that if the Germans devote industrial capacity to making stuff for that plan, other stuff doesn't get made.

amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics

German SL diverted industry was 5-10% of naval production for one year....hardly critical. Most people don't know what they are talking about.

If Russian rail industry system was anything like France or Germany they would have boasted an inventory of 20,000 locomotives and 1/2 million freight cars. So against that back drop the total war production is a drop in the bucket and therefor hardly war winning.
 
I said 'Maybe', favouring the Soviets. Frankly, there is no way at all, ever, that the Nazis could 'win' in any strategic sense, and they lacked the ability to ultimately destroy Russia, her armies and her industries, or the ability to occupy European Russia and complete Generalplan Ost. So that wouldn't happen. At the same time, if the Russians had zero Western support, ie, no trade, no lending, etc, which is a rather ASB scenario, then I could see them collapsing or becoming exhausted before the possibility of invasion into Germany becomes a possibility. All the same, it was a War of Annihilation from start to finish, and in a war of annihilation where no peace deals other than ultimate surrender would be bargained, the Russians would win, straight-up.
 
The Germans would have absolutely slaughtered the Soviets. As it was barely over 50% of the entire German military capacity was dedicated to the War in the East. Lets not get confused here. Almost the entire naval war was taking place against the Uk and the Us. Aside from a limited side-show in the Baltic and Black sea for all intents and purposes 95% of the Kriegsmarine with resources being dedicated to the construction of over a 1000 U-boats then their crews etc etc. The we have the airforce...which a disproportionate number were being dedicated to the west and South where "training" was largely happening in the East... Then there is home defence where all those thousands of 88mm guns are being used for air defence 6-7000 of them their crews etc. The much sharper uptick in production that would have occurred without the production loss as a result of bombing etc. And lastly the re-allocation of upwards of 60+ divisions (the firepower and the slaughter that would result would be incredible). The Soviets wouldn't have had their 2000 rail locomotives, from the US, nor their 650000 6 wheeler trucks, their 15million boots, their thousands of radios (Still using flags to communicate from tank to tank...seriously!!), Supplies of aviation fuel etc etc tanks aircraft the lend lease quantities and quality was significant by some estimates it was equal to about 30% of Soviet military spend. So One index going south and the Germans dedicating themselves totally to Soviet destruction... So yes its true the soviets did the dying in world war two and they largely chewed up the Wehrmacht but without the western allies they would have been comprehensibly crunched.
 
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