Could the United Netherlands have survived 1830? What impact might it have had on Europe?

[Thomas1195]

Even in a Germany with its protectionist policies will still be the most important trading partner of Netherlands. More important France will be the enemy of the simple reason that it will keep trying to get a Rhine border. It would demand a complete rearrangement of the power dynamics of Europe for France not being the biggest threat to Netherlands.

The UK was also a very significant trade partner of both Belgium and Netherlands, perhaps even more than Germany before 1870 IOTL. Belgium/South Netherlands also had extensive trade relation with France IOTL as well, especially in Wallonia.

As for France, you could have a less imperialist France in the 19th century (e.g. no Nappy III), or a France that focuses their energy on colonial expansion (like OTL Third Republic) instead of natural borders. A 1848 POD could have totally changed the political dynamics in Europe.

 

[Jürgen]

The UK was also a very significant trade partner of both Belgium and Netherlands, perhaps even more than Germany before 1870 IOTL. Belgium/South Netherlands also had extensive trade relation with France IOTL as well, especially in Wallonia.

As for France, you could have a less imperialist France in the 19th century, or a France that focuses their energy on colonial expansion instead of natural borders.

Almost all German export from and import into the Rhine basin goes through the Netherlands, that‘s why Netherlands will always be oriented toward that region and the power controlling it.

 

[Thomas1195]

Almost all German export from and import into the Rhine basin goes through the Netherlands, that‘s why Netherlands will always be oriented toward that region and the power controlling it.

OTOH, a strong relation with the UK could also prevent Netherlands from being absorbed into Germany, which was a concern IOTL (this issue basically drove Dutch republicanism in the late 19th century when the Dutch Monarchy - House of Orange really ran the risk of dying out).

 

[Osman Aga]

OTOH, a strong relation with the UK could also prevent Netherlands from being absorbed into Germany, which was a concern IOTL (this issue basically drove Dutch republicanism in the late 19th century when the Dutch Monarchy - House of Orange really ran the risk of dying out).

I highly doubt there was a possibility of absorbing the Netherlands by Germany. Militarily? No doubt. The Prussian and German armies were bigger and stronger. But like the unification of Germany? No. The Dutch have no interest, let alone France or the UK accepting any scenario like that.

Not sure if you meant absorbing like that.

 

[Osman Aga]

Almost all German export from and import into the Rhine basin goes through the Netherlands, that‘s why Netherlands will always be oriented toward that region and the power controlling it.

That and their constant royal marriages with the Prussian Royal Family.

 

[Osman Aga]

The Netherlands has more to fear of France as long as the Dutch also keep Belgium, and thus orientate towards Germany. The Dutch King has less reasons to give up Luxembourg, no intention to give up Wallonia or Flanders to France, and any threat from Paris means the Dutch will support the Prussians/Germans against the French. If France was not as expansionist towards the Low Lands as they were in OTL, they could easily be played off to each other by the Dutch against the Germans. It is not like Germany was always friendly either to the Dutch, especially with Bismarck Claiming Limburg in the 1860s, hence why Willem III was willing to sell Luxembourg to France.

 

[Thomas1195]

That and their constant royal marriages with the Prussian Royal Family.

Those royal marriages would have been rendered useless with 1848-style PODs. The Dutch monarchy would have been way more unpopular ITTL, depending on how the Belgian Revolution is put down, especially in the South. In fact, House of Orange royal marriages with Prussia could delay Prussia from recognizing a second Dutch Republic - while France and the UK could be quick to do so (plus guaranteeing them).

 

[Nivek]

Those royal marriages would have been rendered useless with 1848-style PODs. The Dutch monarchy would have been way more unpopular ITTL, depending on how the Belgian Revolution is put down, especially in the South. In fact, House of Orange royal marriages with Prussia could delay Prussia from recognizing a second Dutch Republic - while France and the UK could be quick to do so (plus guaranteeing them).

dude, you're making your own scenario, with a 1830 POD there would not 48 at all neither

 

[Deleted member 83898]

It is not like Germany was always friendly either to the Dutch, especially with Bismarck Claiming Limburg in the 1860s

As far as I know, the basis for that claim was the fact that Limburg had been part of the German Confederation since 1839 as a result of the Treaty of London.

ITTL, Limburg is never added to the Confederation, but the portion of Luxembourg now in Wallonia is never removed from it.

A German statesman seeking to weld the states of his country into a unified whole would be wise not to covet the direct acquisition of Luxembourg, I think (outside of purchasing it from the Netherlands/the Dutch monarch, given the consent of the States General).

The German state which pursued such an acquisition would be viewed as unbalancing the European concert, and so would have trouble attracting the support or acquiescence of the other great powers. France would naturally object to these designs and oppose them along with the Netherlands — Franco-Dutch alignment would result, even if only for the moment. This German state would then be forced to either back down with a loss of face or be faced with an unenviable position in an offensive war.

Perhaps such a crisis could be used to bait France into declaring war on that German state without involving the Netherlands, though. This is also true of a situation where the Netherlands agrees to sell Luxembourg to that German state, and France objects.

 

[H.Flashman(VC)]

Almost all German export from and import into the Rhine basin goes through the Netherlands, that‘s why Netherlands will always be oriented toward that region and the power controlling it.

The Ruhr only developed as a powerhouse in the second half of the 19th century. At the moment of the Belgian Revolt the northern economy was still focussed around the trade of Amsterdam, not Rotterdam. I suspect that if Wallonia remains part of the Netherlands, the Northern tradesman will be focussed on how to bring those goods to it's markets and thus less on the Rhine bassin.

That and their constant royal marriages with the Prussian Royal Family.

Huh, only stadtholder William V. You can say there's a focus on German houses, but that's more because of the high supply of Royalty in that region, not so much a conscious choice.

I think that the Netherlands first will be mostly hostile to France, because they expect the largest threat from there. But this might change when Germany unites, especially if done in the Bismarck way. Still during the whole period there will be trade with those potential enemies, so any decision will be tempered by that. The Netherlands will be more inclined to peace and Neutrality because they are aware they will be the battlefield (again) of any great conflict and therefore will lose more than they can gain.

 

[Parma]

I have been thinking a bit about the potential of the so-called United Kingdom of the Netherlands, that incarnation of the Dutch state created after the Congress of Vienna in 1815 that included what are now the sovereign states of Belgium and Luxembourg within itself, the course of 19th century history would have been altered.

View attachment 551277

Consider: Containing within itself the maritime and trading strength of Holland and the growing industrial economy of Wallonia, with a still-substantial overseas empire, the 1815-1830 Kingdom of the Netherlands arguably was close to becoming another European Great Power. The corner of northwestern Europe near the mouth of the Rhine, rather than being a cockpit for rival powers, might itself become a seat of power. It certainly could have been a very risky move for France to try to seek territorial acquisitions in the south of this country as compensation for the gains of its rivals.

Mind, this all depends on whether the United Netherlands could have survived. Was the Belgian Revolution inevitable? Was it possible that the Dutch state might have bent enough to make the break less possible? Alternatively, was it possible that the Belgians might have had less foreign support? Beyond that, even if the United Netherlands did survive, would its divisions be manageable politically? A United Netherlands could end up lurching from one crisis to another, a sort of Austria-Hungary on the North Sea.

Thoughts?

The Belgian revolt was certainly inevitable. The policies of Willem I did antagonize the Clergy and the Liberals and drove these political oponest towards each other. Never the less not in a way to organize a revolt.
The Belgian revolt was organized almost entirely by agitators, inspired by the July revolt in France with the aim to hand ove rthe Southern Netherlands to France.
Due to the extreme bad handling of the crisses and the civil unrest the Southern Liberals, organized in Brussels, in a civil guard came to the conclusion that it might be better to go for an independent country.
If the revolt in Brussel, was handed better, like it was in Liege, then the revolt would be nothing but a foot note in history.
Let assume the revolt of 1830 came in history books as just the summer riots of 1830. Let assume due to political and economical pressure the division of seats in parliament was shifted to 60-50 in favor of the South instead of 55-55. The next decades the Liberals took power as much happened in Europe during this period.
Industry in Aalst, Gent, Mons, Charleroi, Liege and Maastricht explode. Antwerp as port grew exceptionally. In the North the Haarlemmermeer will be cultivated a bit earlier.
Railroads would be coonecting the entire realm within two decades after 1832.
To compensate the exeptional growth of the port of Antwerp the open sea connection for Rotterdam will be made much earlier than 1870.
Realising that colonies or over seas posessions are valuable markets the Gold coast forts would not be changes with the UK and not be sold later.
Expansion in the Dutch East Indies would be more or less in the same as in OTL. Possible this time the undertakings to get Delagoa Bay ( Mozambique) form Portugal would be more successful in order to get a short trade route to the Boer Republics.
Who knows the United Kingdom of the Netherlands wil participate in the scramble for Africa.
By 1840 or 1850 it would be a self confident industrialized Nation instead of two small nations, one limited by treaties ( Belgium) and one insecure and isolated ( Netherlands).
Major point of trouble would be the opposing views between Liberals, Catholics and (orthodox) Protestants. Possible that the later two find each other in their opposition against the LIberals.
Language is not a real question, but likely the language border will shift to the South in stead to the North. This will happen due since the Dutch language will not be marginalized in the South, it remains an official language and due to migration of people to the factories and mines in the South, not only from Flanders and Brabant but also form Norhtern provinces like Zeeland, Gelre and Overijsel.
Forreign policies is unclear in OTL Belgium is bound by treaties and the Netherlands is to small to make mistakes. This time the economic power is much ore which might create other priorities and interest.

 

[H.Flashman(VC)]

Major point of trouble would be the opposing views between Liberals, Catholics and (orthodox) Protestants. Possible that the later two find each other in their opposition against the LIberals.

And later socialists. As in OTL both Belgium and the Netherlands had a form of Pillarisation, I can see that* also existing in this timeline with a stronger Catholic and Liberal pillars. Maybe the language issue can be solved or at least tempered with a special French pillar. There will certainly be a school strugle (schoolstrijd) with the same outcome: subsidized particular education.

* Based on the idea of sphere sovereignty of Abraham Kuyper.

 

[Parma]

And later socialists. As in OTL both Belgium and the Netherlands had a form of Pillarisation, I can see that* also existing in this timeline with a stronger Catholic and Liberal pillars. Maybe the language issue can be solved or at least tempered with a special French pillar. There will certainly be a school strugle (schoolstrijd) with the same outcome: subsidized particular education.

* Based on the idea of sphere sovereignty of Abraham Kuyper.

I agree, both in OTL Belgium and Netherlands there was huge dispute how to fund schools. In both countries this huge debate was nearly similar with nearly similar outcome, subsidized religious education. In a United Kingdom this would be the same. The emerge of an orthodox Calvinist organization and political party would most likely be years earlier, more in the 1840ties instead of the 1850ties. This due to the even larger influence of Catholics and their much larger economic leverage ( industrialization of the South).

French or Waloon would be loosing in influence due to the earlier mentioned migration of workers to the South but also the with it the presence of Priest and Ministers who would held their Church services i Dutch in an attempted to give the workers from the North spiritual guidance and above al to prevent them from godless behavior or even worse socialist ideas. Which gradually will led to Dutch speaking schools in the South and over time a larger Dutch speaking population of the South. This will go gradually and not forced as in OTL Belgium where Dutch was nearly forbidden and forced out.

The influence on European politics would depend on the investments in army and navy. In OTL this was very modest. However the Dutch did invest in a navy to protect their overseas possessions. Most likely this will be done as well in a United Kingdom, maybe even on a larger scale since all the hardware, like guns and later iron and steel, could be produced domestically, in contrast of OTL were all needed to be imported to build sailing ships or ironclads.
Having a significant fleet and army, will make the Kingdom almost automatically a force to recon with or an attractive partner in an alliance. Alliances could be voluntarly both countries could also be forced into it or circumstances could make in a nesesity.

 

[rfmcdonald]

I agree, both in OTL Belgium and Netherlands there was huge dispute how to fund schools. In both countries this huge debate was nearly similar with nearly similar outcome, subsidized religious education. In a United Kingdom this would be the same. The emerge of an orthodox Calvinist organization and political party would most likely be years earlier, more in the 1840ties instead of the 1850ties. This due to the even larger influence of Catholics and their much larger economic leverage ( industrialization of the South).

How will Protestants react to being a.minority population in a state that was arguably created by the Reformation?1

French or Waloon would be loosing in influence due to the earlier mentioned migration of workers to the South but also the with it the presence of Priest and Ministers who would held their Church services i Dutch in an attempted to give the workers from the North spiritual guidance and above al to prevent them from godless behavior or even worse socialist ideas. Which gradually will led to Dutch speaking schools in the South and over time a larger Dutch speaking population of the South. This will go gradually and not forced as in OTL Belgium where Dutch was nearly forbidden and forced out.

I do not think that the Frenchification of Brussels will happen, not with Dutch becoming a language of power and prestige and not with Brussels becoming merely a regional centre. A Brussels that began the 19th century with Dutch being the native language of the population will likely end the century with Dutch being the main language of public life.

I am much more skeptical about the idea of the language frontier changing. It is very difficult to imagine French being displaced from the Walloon territories as a language of prestige. More, even if you do get larger numbers of Flemish moving south to industrial Wallonia, why would they not assimilate just as OTL? Belgian immigrants—probably mostly Flemish—formed local majorities in some cities in French Nord, but they failed utterly to reverse the decline of Dutch there.

 

[Jürgen]

I am much more skeptical about the idea of the language frontier changing. It is very difficult to imagine French being displaced from the Walloon territories as a language of prestige. More, even if you do get larger numbers of Flemish moving south to industrial Wallonia, why would they not assimilate just as OTL? Belgian immigrants—probably mostly Flemish—formed local majorities in some cities in French Nord, but they failed utterly to reverse the decline of Dutch there.

I'm of the opinion that the rural lanjguage borders will likely stay pretty much as they are in 1830, meaning a Luxembourg German will be spoken slighly further west. Where we would see a difference is in urban areas The Walloons had a low birthrate compared to Dutch, Flemish anf Germans. In OTL the Flemish (and German) immigrants people migrating to them was assimilated into French language. But here the state would push against this plus the industry would be much bigger with a united Dutch-Belgian market which also include Indonesia and if the Dutch here establish border with the Boer Republics also they would likely also be part of their market.

We could very likely enter a 20th century where half the population of Wallonia speak Dutch as their main language and the language border pretty much look the same as in 1830, the major changes would be the growing urbanisation resulting in a increasing Dutch population.

Amnother important aspect is if the Dutch push Dutch as sole school language, we will likely see a greater survival of the Walloon language versus standard French.

 

[H.Flashman(VC)]

How will Protestants react to being a.minority population in a state that was arguably created by the Reformation?1

Before 1848 the protestants were still protected somewhat by the constitution. The northern Netherlands were still a missionary area without a proper catholic organisation. There were no bishops. In 1827 king Willem I had made a concordats with the pope. There would be a partial restoration of the organisation as Willem allowed Titulair bishops in the North. But the implementation demanded a change in the constitution and because of the Belgian revolt, nothing came of it. The Catholics had to wait until 1848 to gain their rights and then it still took 5 years for the implementation of the restoration of the Catholic hierarchy. This lead to protests of the more orthodox Calvinists, with support of King William III. The government resigned and the King had to dissolve parliament. There were elections. Many liberals lost their seat and more conservative candidates were elected but despite this conservative protestant wave the new government didn't reverse the restoration. They did however approve a law that among other things forbade public religious displays in places where they weren't already active before 1848, clearly directed at new Catholic Processions etc. This law was active untill 1988. In later elections many of the liberals regained their seat.
Now in the scenario as proposed by @Parma the liberals at first supported by moderate Catholics will be powerful enough to get these reforms earlier on. There will be protests and it may also lead to a temporary conservative wave in the North, but the Liberals, off course supported by Catholics, will have a much easier time to uphold the reforms. I can still see something similar happening as in OTL, some law that appears to protect Calvinism above the Rivers, just for political reasons. It will be even more window dressing than OTL.T Thereafter orthodox calvinists (now a minority in a minority) will stil emancipate through the Pillarisation.

 

[rfmcdonald]

I'm of the opinion that the rural lanjguage borders will likely stay pretty much as they are in 1830, meaning a Luxembourg German will be spoken slighly further west. Where we would see a difference is in urban areas The Walloons had a low birthrate compared to Dutch, Flemish anf Germans. In OTL the Flemish (and German) immigrants people migrating to them was assimilated into French language. But here the state would push against this plus the industry would be much bigger

I am skeptical about this. Unless we are going to assume a complete marginalization of Francophones—something that I think we may not be able to have, at least if we are to keep the industrialization of Wallonia on track—you would still have south of the language frontier a situation where the local population was almost wholly Romance-speaking and where French had been the established prestige language since the immemorial. There is too much momentum to easily overcome, and even larger Dutch-speaking minorities moving to predominantly Francophone communities would still be minorities.

We could very likely enter a 20th century where half the population of Wallonia speak Dutch as their main language and the language border pretty much look the same as in 1830, the major changes would be the growing urbanisation resulting in a increasing Dutch population.

That would be a lot of Dutch-speakers, IIRC well over a million, with more than a million migrants coming. Is that likely? And why would they not assimilate, as individuals, in much the same way that (say) native speakers of Swiss German did into French Switzerland?

You could make things worse, but that would need a decidedly anti-Francophone shift. Is that necessarily likely, especially if the Dutch monarchical state does.not try to overthrow the established and largely Francophone elites of the south?

Amnother important aspect is if the Dutch push Dutch as sole school language, we will likely see a greater survival of the Walloon language versus standard French.

What mechanism do you suggest for this?

 

[HJ Tulp]

This might be far-fetchted, but might the Catholic majority prompt the Calvinists to ally with the Liberals against religious - and thus Catholic - schooling just to stem the tide?

 

[Thomas1195]

This might be far-fetchted, but might the Catholic majority prompt the Calvinists to ally with the Liberals against religious - and thus Catholic - schooling just to stem the tide?

I can well see Calvanists allying with Liberals in the ATL School War.

 

[Parma]

I can well see Calvanists allying with Liberals in the ATL School War.

No, not going to happen. Liberal and moderate protestants yes, but the straight forward Calvinist will not allying with liberals in the 19th century.
Moderate Catholics and moderate Protestant are more likely to support each other in mutual religious questions.