Could the UK win an Opium War 60 years earlier?

Can the UK win?

  • Yes

    Votes: 8 17.8%
  • No

    Votes: 37 82.2%

  • Total voters
    45
Could the British win a war with China in 1779-1782 on the scale of the First Opium War, without the technological advances between these two generations and with a financially stronger China with a determined Qianlong emperor?

EDIT: Realized this overlaps with American (and elsewhere) war. Oh well...
 
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Could the British win a war with China in 1779-1782 on the scale of the First Opium War, without the technological advances between these two generations and with a financially stronger China with a determined Qianlong emperor?

EDIT: Realized this overlaps with American (and elsewhere) war. Oh well...
I doubt it, but I doubt it would start to begin with though.
 
Well, win and win. If Parliament was hellbent on it? Certainly! But what would most likely happen would be that interest would soon fade, and MPs would begin complaining about how expensive the whole venture was, how limited the potential gains seemed to be, and just what a waste of efforts and attention the whole thing was proving to be.

In terms of raw military power, Great Britain would win.
In terms of all the stuff that actually goes into fighting a way, China would easily be able to resist long enough for interest in Britain to go away.
 
They could win if Britain cared a lot and China didn't. If both nations are throwing everything they've got at the war then I think the British would successfully loose a lot of men, and while China would probably lose more in the end supply chains and manpower differences would tell. In the most likely scenario it would probably matter more to China than Britain and it would be on China's home turf.
 
My university professor during one of my lectures basically concluded that even if the entirety of Europe ganged up on the Qing Dynasty during this period,they are still fucked.
 
A lot of British success in the OTL Opium War was predicated on the help of native Chinese who, for various reasons (pre-nationalism period, disillusionment with the government, converts, pirates etc.), offered logistical/scouting help to the British. Certainly the British military couldn't have overrun cities such as Canton without at least some assistance from local hongs. I doubt this would change much even with Qianlong.

I think the single most important thing the Qianlong Emperor could have brought to the fight (as opposed to OTL Daoguang) was probably much better control between Beijing and the armies/navies in the field. OTL poor communication between Chinese provincial defences, as well as deliberate obfuscation between field generals afraid of punishment and Beijing, greatly hampered Chinese defensive efforts. Strong leadership from Qianlong would have better coordinated these efforts.

In addition, Qianlong was one of the few people in China who understood the extent of the British Empire, esp. in India; it's possible that he could have arranged for some coordinating attacks from the Sikhs or the Gurkhas to distract the British.

Military-wise Qing China and Britain would obviously be at a more level playing field, though the Manchu core of the Qing military was already in decline by the late Qianlong era. Qing cannon, guns and fortresses would obviously be less inferior compared to OTL, but basic Chinese weaknesses such as poor discipline, lack of reconnaissance/initiative and tendency to rout in the face of a bayonet charge would have remained. Most importantly, British naval superiority would mean that the British got to pick and choose their battles, while the Chinese had to defend everything.

I think British victory over the Qing during this period is distinctly possible, but would require quite a bit more resources than OTL - or conversely, less ambitious war goals.
 
In addition, Qianlong was one of the few people in China who understood the extent of the British Empire, esp. in India; it's possible that he could have arranged for some coordinating attacks from the Sikhs or the Gurkhas to distract the British.
Not quite. British India was largely unknown in Beijing even in the 1780s, as the Qing would first have significant contact with the Company state in Bengal only during the Second Sino-Gurkha War. In fact, Beijing does not seem to have been informed even of the Gurkha conquest of the Kathmandu Valley. We have little reason to assume that the emperor knew more about British India than other high-ranking members of the government and much reason to assume otherwise.

It must also be pointed out that the British did not border the Sikhs in the 1780s. In this era their greatest enemies were Mysore under Haidar Ali and Tipu Sultan and the Maratha confederation (particularly under Mahadji Sindia). There was also no truly unified Sikh polity until maharaja Ranjit Singh, but rather various misls throughout Punjab.
 
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