Here’s the scenario:
Step 1. The Afghan communist government (backed militarily by the Soviets) and India hatch a plan to invade and partition Pakistan. After a quick campaign Pakistan bows to reality and cedes all of Kashmir to India, Pashtu speaking areas to Afghanistan, and grants independence to Pakistani Baluchistan.
Assumptions:
- A casus belli wouldn’t be hard to find or concoct with Pakistan actively aiding insurgents in Afghanistan and Kashmir.
- The benefits to India are obvious: elimination of the Kashmir problem, Pakistan reduced to a cowed rump, and independent Soviet-backed Afghanistan and Baluchistan as regional allies.
- The benefits to Afghanistan are also overwhelming: stop Pakistani/Western aid to insurgents and gain legitimacy by uniting Pashtunistan.
- The Soviets could provide much aid to the Afghan war effort in Pakistan (equipment, logistics, air support, taking up the slack against the mujahedeen) without being directly implicated as a co-belligerent. They’d solve the Afghan problem, gain an additional client in Baluchistan, and set up the coup de grace in Step 2.
- The United States would be mightily displeased but as with previous Indian invasions and partitions of Pakistan, and the recent Soviet ‘invasion’ of Afghanistan, it wouldn’t and couldn’t do anything about it.
- China would be extremely worried about Soviet and Indian power, but isn’t crazy enough to start a war with either/both for the sake of Pakistan.
Step 2. As the Iranian Revolution turns radical, the Soviets, Iraqis, Afghans, and Baluchs invade and partition Iran. Azeri areas are annexed to Soviet Azerbaijan, Arab areas to Iraq, Baluch areas to Baluchistan, and Sunni northeastern Iran to Afghanistan.
Assumptions:
- Revolutionary Iran would provide ample provocation, real and concocted, to all the parties. Besides it’s general destabilizing impact on the region, ethnic minority uprisings could be provoked by the invaders in the run-up to war, and their suppression by the revolutionaries given as casus belli.
- In the wake of revolution Iran was little able to defend itself from a coordinated invasion along every front.
- In addition to enlarging and aggrandizing its client co-conspirators, the Soviets would be able to set up rump Iran as a puppet regime
- A take-over of Iran and a close alliance with Baathist Iraq would give the Soviet Union the ability to arbitrarily and unilaterally set the world oil price, thus giving it both massive leverage over the capitalist economies, and a huge stream of revenue to prop up its own economy indefinitely.
- While the US (and possibly Britain and France) would rush in forces to defend the Gulf monarchies, the West wouldn’t start a war to defend Islamic Iran in the midst of the hostage crisis. This is the Soviet Union’s unique opportunity to take the Middle East without triggering the Carter Doctrine.
- While the democracies would initially be extremely hostile to Soviet machinations, no ‘red line’ is ever crossed to trigger war or anything close, and realpolitik would eventually force Europe and Japan to adopt a pro-Soviet line in order to ensure reliable and affordable energy supplies.
- As their core interests (in high energy prices) are aligned, and with the Soviets dominating the Middle East and Persian Gulf militarily, the Gulf monarchies would also be drawn into the Soviet sphere (provided the Western powers don’t outright occupy and annex the oil fields).
- A clever Soviet Union and Iraq might also use an anti-Western anti-Israel foreign policy to influence not only the Gulf States but other Arab petro-states like Libya and Sudan.
- Only the United States (alienated from its nominal allies in Western Europe and East Asia by their need for Soviet energy) and China would remain great powers outside the Soviet sphere of influence.
Sooo…. is this plausible?
- Do the Soviets/Afghans/Indians have the military might to force Pakistan to concede defeat before the West/China can respond coherently and effectually?
- Could the Soviets and their allies similarly present the West with an Iranian fait accompli?
- Is there any chance the US would start WW3 to defend the Ayatollahs?
- What is the chance WW3 starts over the Gulf monarchies or Israel, as the Soviets and/or Saddam develop winner’s disease?
- Is there any chance the free world could rapidly reduce its fossil fuel consumption and hence negate the Soviet advantage? (Crash nuclear energy program? Crash oil sands / oil shale development? Fusion?)
- How much time would this buy the Soviet empire? Could it survive indefinitely on high oil prices?
If it is plausible then it’s also pretty frightening. I’ve never heard any other Soviet-world-domination scenario that sounded at all possible.