Could the Shogunate survive in a modernised Japan?

As the title says. OTL, the economic and social changes associated with Japan's modernisation were accompanied by the overthrow of the Shogunate, aka the Meiji restoration. But is it possible for Japan to reach a similar level of modernisation with the Shogunate remaining in place? And if so what political role would the Shoguns play in a modernised Japan?

Personally I think the Shogunate might have a chance of surviving and modernising, as they did have institutions such as "Rangaku" that promoted western technologies. But when it comes to what a modern Shogunate might look like politically, I have no idea.
 

trurle

Banned
The surviving Shogunate will definitely mean less reformation and less order. Japan is likely to get a status of protectorate from British Empire eventually, with postcolonial struggle more resembling modern central African nations. Will be a protracted, generations-long evolution to reduce the obsolescent system of Buddhist clergy and professional warriors, instead of just 20 rebellions-ridden years of the early Meiji period IOTL.
 
The surviving Shogunate will definitely mean less reformation and less order. Japan is likely to get a status of protectorate from British Empire eventually, with postcolonial struggle more resembling modern central African nations. Will be a protracted, generations-long evolution to reduce the obsolescent system of Buddhist clergy and professional warriors, instead of just 20 rebellions-ridden years of the early Meiji period IOTL.

To some degree, yes, but why would Japan necessarily be colonised? It has few resources and is strong enough to maintain some resistance. If Thailand survived being totally colonised, then certainly the Tokugawa Shogunate could. And even if it were, 19th century colonisation of Japan would look more like European rule over Morocco or Egypt than Central Africa where there was no central order to co-opt like the Shogunate and the colony's structure far more artificial.
 

trurle

Banned
To some degree, yes, but why would Japan necessarily be colonised? It has few resources and is strong enough to maintain some resistance. If Thailand survived being totally colonised, then certainly the Tokugawa Shogunate could. And even if it were, 19th century colonisation of Japan would look more like European rule over Morocco or Egypt than Central Africa where there was no central order to co-opt like the Shogunate and the colony's structure far more artificial.
Full colonization is unlikely. I think relations between Japan and British may be similar to princely states of India. Some of them avoided annexation until collapse of British Empire post WWII.

Regarding analogy of post-colonial Japan with Central Africa, i mostly meant the intensity of internal strife rather than colonizer`s ruling style. Religious strife within and against vastly unpopular yet government supported Buddhist clergy will shake the Japan for decades if strict measures (as Meiji did) are not implemented.
 

Maoistic

Banned
Sure, why not? The Meiji itself was more like a reformed Shogunate anyway. It was even a step backwards in the aspect of the Emperor returning.
 

PhilippeO

Banned
Shogunate can survive easily. A different Emperor, a different Shogun, a different Daimyo could change history easily, in most Japanese history Emperor didn't rule directly anyway.

What certain to change is political system, Tokugawa bakufu-han system is no longer effective, financially unsound, and incapable to generate political legitimacy from daimyo and people.

A stronger central government who can control autonomous han, a renunciation of rigid division of samurais townsmen farmer, and more efficient taxation system is necessary for Japan and likely inevitable.
 

trurle

Banned
Sure, why not? The Meiji itself was more like a reformed Shogunate anyway. It was even a step backwards in the aspect of the Emperor returning.
Meiji did the proper land ownership, religion, and army reforms. None of these were even planned by Shogunate (Bakufu), because Shogunate tried to find compromise..even when it was not possible or harmful.
 

trurle

Banned
Shogunate can survive easily. A different Emperor, a different Shogun, a different Daimyo could change history easily, in most Japanese history Emperor didn't rule directly anyway.

What certain to change is political system, Tokugawa bakufu-han system is no longer effective, financially unsound, and incapable to generate political legitimacy from daimyo and people.

A stronger central government who can control autonomous han, a renunciation of rigid division of samurais townsmen farmer, and more efficient taxation system is necessary for Japan and likely inevitable.
I was mentioned this as "land reform" in previous post. Well, it can be called "tax reform" too..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_Tax_Reform_(Japan_1873)
 
I'd say so yeah. I mean, the Shogunate was basically a Feudal Stratocracy on top of an Feudal Monarchy.

You can have it evolve over time, so lets say Democracy is inevitable to make the scenario simpler.

Shogun recognises it is going to have problems with the Emperor. In order to circumvent this, the Shogun decides to modernise instead, bringing the peasantry into the mainline army, and having the Samurai be part Melee Warrior, part Rifleman, part Grenadier. Expensive all round crack troops around a core of line infantry and machine guns. So basically the Meiji Army, but with Samurai Elite troops.

Shogun reduces the Emperor to a figurehead permenantly.

Demands for democracy later come in, and are adapted to. The Emperor is the head of a constitutional monarchy built around federal prefectures, each roughly the same size, each in line with OTLs prefectures. Each also has a military governor that can override local government, but does so sparingly. Acting as the glue of Japan - enforcing common policy that is handed down from the Shogun.

The Shogun, less a dynastic position than before, is essentially an elected position, but elected by the Military Governors, but has overriding executive power. They can throw out local governments, but don't because they don't need to, and don't want to provoke pure-democracy factions.

This can also maintain the Samurai as well, as if the original Military Governors are basically the Daimyo, and their clans, then we can say MGs were always chosen from the Samurai of a prefecture. Entry to the common man is possible, through sponsorship, and training as a Samurai. Hehehehe.
 
Top