Could the Safavids have won against the Ottomans during the war of 1623-1639?

[Comte de Dordogne]

Ottoman–Safavid War (1623–1639) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

What would it take for the Safavids to win against the Ottomans? An early death of Murad IV?
By victory I imagine that Persia would succeed in holding Mesopotamia as well as Samtskhe and Armenia. How long can the Persians keep their (re)conquest?
What are the consequences of a victorious Safavid and a defeated Ottoman? We could see Persia then turn to Central Asia and the Caucasus? Or will their overwhelming victory in the West make them lose their foothold in the East?
What about the Ottoman Empire? Can defeat cause a period of turkish unrest that could lead to a period of turmoil for the Turks?
I also imagine that the Persians will spread the Shiite faith in Mesopotamia and the Caucasus.

What do you think about this?

@Osman Aga @John7755 يوحنا

 

[Osman Aga]

Ottoman–Safavid War (1623–1639) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

What would it take for the Safavids to win against the Ottomans? An early death of Murad IV?
By victory I imagine that Persia would succeed in holding Mesopotamia as well as Samtskhe and Armenia. How long can the Persians keep their (re)conquest?
What are the consequences of a victorious Safavid and a defeated Ottoman? We could see Persia then turn to Central Asia and the Caucasus? Or will their overwhelming victory in the West make them lose their foothold in the East?
What about the Ottoman Empire? Can defeat cause a period of turkish unrest that could lead to a period of turmoil for the Turks?
I also imagine that the Persians will spread the Shiite faith in Mesopotamia and the Caucasus.

What do you think about this?

@Osman Aga @John7755 يوحنا

The war would last as long as one is willing to give up the war. An early death of Murad IV is no guarantee of victory as he still had four sane brothers (even Ibrahim). Bayezid would likely succeed and rule and take over the rule as soon as he is old enough. The Ottomans are unlikely to definitely give up Mesopotamia. The Caucasus was more or less within Safavid influence.

A necessary for Safavid victory is Abbas the Great living long enough to hold Mesopotamia until a truce. Something like 1612 and 1614. The Safavids eventually returned Mesopotamia but in this case they don't need to. I gotta say the Ottomans are unwilling to give up Mesopotamia unless they are defeated with no resources to continue the war, like Zenta (1697). The Caucasus is easier to give up as it usually consisted of vassals and new conquests.

Persia spreading the Shia beliefs is pretty much guaranteed. But whether the locals are open to it is not given. The Safavids tried it in Afghanistan and it costed them their rule.
Should the Ottomans lose Mesopotamia, they will return the first best moment. This time they will try to maul the Safavids.

 

[Abd ar-Rahman II]

The war would last as long as one is willing to give up the war. An early death of Murad IV is no guarantee of victory as he still had four sane brothers (even Ibrahim). Bayezid would likely succeed and rule and take over the rule as soon as he is old enough. The Ottomans are unlikely to definitely give up Mesopotamia. The Caucasus was more or less within Safavid influence.

A necessary for Safavid victory is Abbas the Great living long enough to hold Mesopotamia until a truce. Something like 1612 and 1614. The Safavids eventually returned Mesopotamia but in this case they don't need to. I gotta say the Ottomans are unwilling to give up Mesopotamia unless they are defeated with no resources to continue the war, like Zenta (1697). The Caucasus is easier to give up as it usually consisted of vassals and new conquests.

Persia spreading the Shia beliefs is pretty much guaranteed. But whether the locals are open to it is not given. The Safavids tried it in Afghanistan and it costed them their rule.
Should the Ottomans lose Mesopotamia, they will return the first best moment. This time they will try to maul the Safavids.

In Safavid best case scenarios how long until the ottoman try to take Irak back ?

 

[Osman Aga]

In Safavid best case scenarios how long until the ottoman try to take Irak back ?

Until there is a Sultan who has control most of his authority. It took Murad IV seven years and those were during his teen years. If Bayezid/Suleiman/Kasim/Ibrahim is old enough they can start a new war. Or there is a situation like Mehmed IV where the Grand Vizier (Koprulu Mehmed) leads the armies in war time. He was rather successful in Transylvania in the late 1650s. But most definitely not more than two decades until a new war breaks out and the Ottomans go for Iraq. If they are too ambitious they would try for the 1590s border but OTL war showed how fast the Safavids could regain the Caucasus. I'd say, if peace is made in 1630, the Ottomans will go at war the latest in 1645 or so. That is assuming Murad IV died young and his successors don't experience the fate of their brothers Osman II and Murad IV.

 

[Monk78]

Can someone compare the military of safavids and ottomans during this era ? thanks

 

[Osman Aga]

Can someone compare the military of safavids and ottomans during this era ? thanks

Both use more cavalry than infantry. The Ottomans lost the janissary effectiveness they had in the 16th century. The Safavids adopted more musket carrying infantry post-1590. The use of Turkmen Tribes (Qizilbash) had declined with Abbas the Greats reign. The Persians were using Ghulam units more and more as an alternative. They usually avoided field battles with the Ottomans and fought when the advantage was theirs (attacking garrisons, relieving a besieged settlement after weeks/months).

I need to look more into the details of the Safavid Army. They had the force to face the Ottomans, Mughals and Uzbeks each in less than a decade until the 1640s but they were pretty much defeated by Afghan tribes in less than a century. There must be more than inexperience what led to their defeat against the Afghans.