With a POD after the end of the Chinese Civil War, would the ROC have ever been able to retake at least some of the mainland and hold it?
OTL the ROC developed plans to retake the mainland, but the US actively opposed any such plans. Even during the Korean War and the Taiwan Straits crises of the 1950s the US opposed any moves to try to retake the mainland. So any invasion would lack US support, and the US may intervene to prevent it. So first the US attitude needs to change.
There is also the fact that the PLA would have numerical superiority (though its quality would not be the best), even if the invasion occurs during the cultural revolution. So somehow the PLA would need to be immensely weakened.
Would anyone on the mainland support the KMT? Many Chinese no doubt opposed the Communists, but that does not mean they would support the KMT.
And finally there is the issue of occupying mainland territory and integrating it into the ROC. Would the KMT be up to the task?
So in order for an invasion to occur, the US government needs to change its mind, the PLA needs to be severely weakened, and support for the communists and faith in the PRC government have to be significantly weakened, so that many mainland Chinese would support the KMT. Even then the KMT might not be able to successfully reintegrate the mainland provinces into the ROC.
So, given all this, are there any circumstances under which the ROC could retake the mainland?
OTL the ROC developed plans to retake the mainland, but the US actively opposed any such plans. Even during the Korean War and the Taiwan Straits crises of the 1950s the US opposed any moves to try to retake the mainland. So any invasion would lack US support, and the US may intervene to prevent it. So first the US attitude needs to change.
There is also the fact that the PLA would have numerical superiority (though its quality would not be the best), even if the invasion occurs during the cultural revolution. So somehow the PLA would need to be immensely weakened.
Would anyone on the mainland support the KMT? Many Chinese no doubt opposed the Communists, but that does not mean they would support the KMT.
And finally there is the issue of occupying mainland territory and integrating it into the ROC. Would the KMT be up to the task?
So in order for an invasion to occur, the US government needs to change its mind, the PLA needs to be severely weakened, and support for the communists and faith in the PRC government have to be significantly weakened, so that many mainland Chinese would support the KMT. Even then the KMT might not be able to successfully reintegrate the mainland provinces into the ROC.
So, given all this, are there any circumstances under which the ROC could retake the mainland?