Could The Republic Have Been Restored in the Aftermath of Caligula's Fall?

[Agricola]

So you assume, that Claudius himself was the head of the conspiracy? Well, he was perhaps involved. Claudius suddenly left the theatre a few minutes before Caligula. This way Claudius could hide, when the german bodyguards of the emperor went nuts and killed in revenge every aristocrat on sight. Did he know whats coming?

On the other side, Claudius was handicapped, and not what a roman would call qualified for emperor. If the senate could have agreed about a successor (some of them also closely related to the royal family), I doubt, the praetorians would have insisted to support Claudius.

That is what I meant, when I said, he was in a weaker position. Much weaker than Tiberius and Caligula before they were enthroned. So the senate had perhaps a chance to negotiate about details of Claudius' imperium. But this senate did not even try! Another hint, that this senate was surely not able to restore the res publica libera.

 

[Matteo]

It is impossible to prove it. But it makes sense, although pure conjecture (not to say conspiracy theory).

Claudius may be the original (and unknown to most people) model for all the puppet masters and perfect criminals of history and fiction, and concerning fiction the model for such characters as Tyrion Lannister in Game of thrones or Kayser Soze in Usual suspects.

 

[Space Oddity]

Claudius suddenly left the theatre a few minutes before Caligula.

He didn't just "suddenly leave the theatre".

He left it escorted by two of the conspirators.

 

[Alcsentre Calanice]

He didn't just "suddenly leave the theatre".

He left it escorted by two of the conspirators.

Here is much speculation on how Claudius did escape. Well, Suetonius writes:

Having spent the greater part of his life under these and like circumstances, he became emperor in his fiftieth year by a remarkable freak of fortune. When the assassins of Gaius shut out the crowd under pretence that the emperor wished to be alone, Claudius was ousted with the rest and withdrew to an apartment called the Hermaeum; and a little later, in great terror at the news of the murder, he stole away to a balcony hard by and hid among the curtains which hung before the door.

That means that Claudius was propably completly unaware of the conspiracy, like all the other persons in the theatre, and left the building just like all the other people.

Cassius Dio, while not specifying how and why Claudius left the theatre, is also claiming that Claudius was unaware of the conspiracy.

 

[Space Oddity]

From Josephus...

Now Claudius his uncle was gone out before, and Marcus Vinicius, his sister’s husband, as also Valerius of Asia;

 

[Alcsentre Calanice]

From Josephus...

2 vs 1

Also, Josephus probably hadn't acces to the imperial archives, whereas Dio and Suetonius had.

 

[Agricola]

Due to the fact, that no ancient author clearly named the conspirators, we cannot say, if Claudius left the theatre together with conspirators or not.

Josephus just says, that Claudius was accompanied by Vinicius and Valerius. Suetonius just said, that the conspirators separated Claudius and others from Caligula. So Vinicius and Valerius could have been "others" or conspirators.

And even if Vinicius or Valerius were conspirators, we do not know, if Claudius knew that.

 

[SlyDessertFox]

I agree that it's not very likely the Praetorians just happened to stumble upon Claudius and decided on the spot to hail him emperor. That's not to say it isn't possible. He is a Julio-Claudian after all, and the Praetorians who found him might have made a quick and easy calculation that perhaps they could profit handsomely for being responsible for raising someone to the purple. That said, I also don't think Claudius was very aware of the plot either, much less leading it. More likely the Praetorians had their own agenda, and while the Senators failed to create a plan for what happens after they murder Caligula and his family, the Praetorians had already decided on raising Claudius as his replacement when the time came.

 

[Agricola]

Well, there have been obviously 2 groups of praetorians in this evening. The one group are some praetorians who killed Caligula led by the tribunes Chareia and Sabinus. They or some allied group also killed Caligulas wife and child afterwards. If these praetorians find Claudius, they might had killed him on sight as well.

Then we have these praetorians, who searched the palace, found Claudius and escorted him to the praetorian camp.

No ancient author mentioned the praetorian prefects and their role. Heck, we even do not know, if there have been 2 or just 1 pefect in 41 AD.
Perhaps the prefect knew about the conspiration. And he approved it. At least tacitly. But he ordered some guys to secure Claudius. Just in case, things go wrong. And they went wrong. The senate could not agree on a successor in time. And now the prefect played his joker.

 

[Alcsentre Calanice]

Can anyone of you imagine Claudius, Gaius' court jester, who was a confidant and consul of Gaius, being included in a conspiracy against Gaius?

No ancient author mentioned the praetorian prefects and their role.

There were a good many, of course, in the conspiracy and privy to what was being done, among them Callistus and the prefect.

- Cassius Dio

Is the prefect the Urban Prefect or the Praetorian prefect? And who is Callistus?

 

[Space Oddity]

Josephus just says, that Claudius was accompanied by Vinicius and Valerius. Suetonius just said, that the conspirators separated Claudius and others from Caligula. So Vinicius and Valerius could have been "others" or conspirators.

Josephus paints them and Claudius as not conspirators, who indeed, the praetorians consider killing, but restrain themselves because of "their dignity"... after first insisting that the conspiracy included numerous senators. And then has one "Marcus Minucianus" who is connected to the conspiracy, make a play for the role of Emperor in the Senate--and it's obvious he means Vinicius, since "Minucianus" 's claim to the throne is being Caligula's brother-in-law.

And who is Callistus?

A freedman in the government. Attached himself to Claudius after Caligula fell.

 

[Agricola]

Is the prefect the Urban Prefect or the Praetorian prefect? And who is Callistus?

Callistus was a fredman. One of the central secretaries.

Cassius Dio talks about "one prefect". Usually the praetorians had two prefects. But not always. No 2nd praetorian prefect is clearly recorded for 41 AD. It would make sense to read the original latin sentence her.

 

[Alcsentre Calanice]

It would make sense to read the original latin sentence her.

I would like to, but Cassius Dio ... You know ... Latin ... I don't speak Greek

A freedman in the government. Attached himself to Claudius after Caligula fell.

Thanks.

 

[Agricola]

I would like to, but Cassius Dio ... You know ... Latin ... I don't speak Greek

LOL, how could I forget this. I can't read greek too.

 

[Alcsentre Calanice]

LOL, how could I forget this. I can't read greek too.

Good news: Josephus wrote that M. Arrecinus Clemens, Praetorian prefect under Caligula, was part of the conspiracy. So I think we solved the mystery

So propably the Praetorians were controlled by a conspirator, who was maybe a republican. That canges everything and increases the chances of a succesful "restoration of the republic" (read: a more republican Principate, since the restoration of the old republic was impossible/out of question).

 

[Agricola]

So propably the Praetorians were controlled by a conspirator, who was maybe a republican.

There is no hint, that the conspirator behind the prefect was a republican. Actually we know of more non-republicans, who just tried to become emperor themselves, than republicans, who played a major role during this night. And as already discussed above it makes much more sense for a praetorian prefect to ally with a non-republican.

However, a clever republican could have been succesful in an alternate history and establish a slightly different principate. From there things might slowly develop further.

 

[SlyDessertFox]

However, a clever republican could have been succesful in an alternate history and establish a slightly different principate. From there things might slowly develop further.

Outfox the foxes essentially. Use the "non-republicans" for his own ends.

 

[Agricola]

Outfox the foxes essentially. Use the "non-republicans" for his own ends.

The key question this republican should ask himself is, what does a senator (republican or not) fear most of all. And exactly here you start with a different imperium for the princeps.

Actually this republican must hide like Augustus hided his non-republican mindset. Just the other way around. Until it is too late for the monarchs.

 

[Alcsentre Calanice]

There is no hint, that the conspirator behind the prefect was a republican. Actually we know of more non-republicans, who just tried to become emperor themselves, than republicans, who played a major role during this night.

Here, Cassius Dio and Suetonios disagree. Dio supports your version,

After the murder of Gaius the consuls despatched guards to every part of the city and convened the senate on the Capitol, where many and diverse opinions were expressed; for some favoured a democracy, some a monarchy, and some were for choosing one man, and some another.

whereas Suetonius assumes that there was a republican majority in the Senate

The conspirators too had not agreed on a successor, and the senate was so unanimously in favour of re-establishing the republic that the consuls called the first meeting, not in the senate house, because it had the name Julia, but in the Capitol; while some in expressing their views proposed that the memory of the Caesars be done away with and their temples destroyed. Men further observed and commented on the fact that all the Caesars whose forename was Gaius perished by the sword, beginning with the one who was slain in the times of Cinna.

Outfox the foxes essentially. Use the "non-republicans" for his own ends.

We need a clever republican with a... very good planAny candidates? For a start, I don't think that the consuls of 41 CE were outstanding personalities. Rather the average sycophant.

The key question this republican should ask himself is, what does a senator (republican or not) fear most of all. And exactly here you start with a different imperium for the princeps.

We Senate fears the Praetorian guard and the legions the most - without the army, the emperor has no means of pressure against the Senate. However, without the Princeps commanding the armies, there is a good chance that the civil war between the commanders of the legions recommence

What about something akin to Sparta, where the kings commanded the armies but were controlled by magistrates?

They provided a balance for the two kings, who rarely cooperated with each other. Plato called them tyrants who ran Sparta as despots, while the kings were little more than generals. Up to two ephors would accompany a king on extended military campaigns as a sign of control, even gaining the ability to declare war at some points in Spartan history.

 

[Agricola]

whereas Suetonius assumes that there was a republican majority in the Senate

No modern historian would agree to that. All historians I know are pretty sure, that there was a non-republican majority in the senate. Also based on Suetonius' text!

I doubt, that Suetonius actually knew exactly what was going on. A lot might be pure speculation or personal intepretation, e.g. to summon the senate on the capitol is not unusual, if security is needed. Because the capitol is easier to defend.