Could the Paris Commune happen differently if the French failed to lose as badly?

I know this an odd question but hear me out.

In my Election Game in Shared Worlds, the voters set off a chain of events that caused the German Armies to retreat from France in early March of 1871 due to troubles at home. :rolleyes: :p

Which as far as I can tell means the French have lost the war but can't be forced to cede Alsace Lorraine or pay a huge indemnity.

But given the timeframe that these events happened in the Paris Commune breaking out hasn't been butterflied away.

How would scenario that effect how the Paris Commune plays out?

Would it fizzle out completely?

Would it be less intense because of the different situation that the interactions between the national government and communards are playing out in?

How would it affect Marx and Socialist and communist thought.

P.S Henri, Count of Chambord is has died in 1871. Would that cause the legitimists to back Prince Phillip, Count of Paris?
 
Maybe the Commune is hardcore at first.

The French national government mentions the one or two things that bother them the most.

A negotiation of sorts, and that can go one or two ways, or multiple ways.
 
Maybe the Commune is hardcore at first.

The French national government mentions the one or two things that bother them the most.

A negotiation of sorts, and that can go one or two ways, or multiple ways.

That's kind of what I was thinking foe the project in my signature (obligatory plug) that the Commune is left slightly less radicalized by by a more conciliatory government response to the Outbreak in Paris due to the less dire situation it finds itself in. and most of them take the incredibly generous offer of complete amnesty. In end around 4,400 people still end up dying though but thats much better then 20,000 who died and the other twenty thousand who ended up exiled in foreign countries or stuck on islands in the pacific..

Does anyone else have any thought?
 
Even IOTL, with the French Army battered so badly by the war, it was still perfectly able (and very willing, due to its political sympathies) to crush the Commune. If it's Commune vs Army there is only one way that's going to end. Radical revolutionary spirit vs military training, experience and discipline isn't much of a fair contest, as the fate of OTL's Commune demonstrated.

If you propose the Army not being so badly battered by the Germans, you make the Commune even more doomed than it was already.

If you want to make the Commune stand more of a chance, you need to go in the opposite direction: make the power of the existing French state much weaker, not stronger.
 
Even IOTL, with the French Army battered so badly by the war, it was still perfectly able (and very willing, due to its political sympathies) to crush the Commune. If it's Commune vs Army there is only one way that's going to end. Radical revolutionary spirit vs military training, experience and discipline isn't much of a fair contest, as the fate of OTL's Commune demonstrated.

If you propose the Army not being so badly battered by the Germans, you make the Commune even more doomed than it was already.

If you want to make the Commune stand more of a chance, you need to go in the opposite direction: make the power of the existing French state much weaker, not stronger.

I would say that for the commune to succeed it needs actual popularity, outside the workers and radicals. Without the backing of at least a large minority of the country the Commune is doomed. End of discussion.
 
I would say that for the commune to succeed it needs actual popularity, outside the workers and radicals. Without the backing of at least a large minority of the country the Commune is doomed. End of discussion.

Fair enough. The fact that the democratic elections in 1871 gave a majority of delegates who weren't just non-socialists but actually royalists (albeit of different dynasties) is pretty telling.

I suppose it's just that IOTL the Commune was doomed even before that became a factor (because of the Army), so it's the Army that I focused on.
 
The commune of Paris is a very specific and a very parisian event.

At that time, there just was no possibility for a socialist revolution anywhere else in France.

But I would say that if France's defeat had been milder, and especially if there had to been the siege of Paris, then the Commune of Paris would probably not have occured.
 
The commune of Paris is a very specific and a very parisian event.

At that time, there just was no possibility for a socialist revolution anywhere else in France.

I'd dissent somewhat from this; I've heard that there were communes in a few other French cities as well. I agree that there was no possibility for a socialist revolution to take over France; I just disagree as to the reason why.

But I would say that if France's defeat had been milder, and especially if there had to been the siege of Paris, then the Commune of Paris would probably not have occured.

Perhaps. Interesting thought.

Now that would have a big influence on future socialist thought. I've heard Marx used the Commune as a model for a socialist revolution in an industrialised country. One wonders what he would have come up with if he had no such model…
 
Unrest in a few other cities (real) does not mean the capacity to duplicateur what happened in Paris.
 
Even IOTL, with the French Army battered so badly by the war, it was still perfectly able (and very willing, due to its political sympathies) to crush the Commune. If it's Commune vs Army there is only one way that's going to end. Radical revolutionary spirit vs military training, experience and discipline isn't much of a fair contest, as the fate of OTL's Commune demonstrated.

If you propose the Army not being so badly battered by the Germans, you make the Commune even more doomed than it was already.

If you want to make the Commune stand more of a chance, you need to go in the opposite direction: make the power of the existing French state much weaker, not stronger.

Oh I didn't think they could win I wanted less of them to die...more willing to give up! :p
 
I would have thought the Germans retreating would be a victory, even if your armies are smashed and humiliated and your fortresses wrecked. There's no way the Germans can demand anything if they go home.

Its not a victory for the ruling REGIME, but for whoever can claim to be the leader of FRANCE when the Germans go home, it would be a huge boost.

And IIRC there are still French armies in the field, South of Orleans, which included naval units from the Med

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
I would have thought the Germans retreating would be a victory, even if your armies are smashed and humiliated and your fortresses wrecked. There's no way the Germans can demand anything if they go home.

Its not a victory for the ruling REGIME, but for whoever can claim to be the leader of FRANCE when the Germans go home, it would be a huge boost.

And IIRC there are still French armies in the field, South of Orleans, which included naval units from the Med

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

I'll have to look into this.
 
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