Could the Ottomans Survive?

The Sandman

Banned
What are the chances that an Ottoman Empire that isn't in WWI goes after Bulgaria (and maybe Greece) with the idea of reversing the losses of the Balkan Wars? I mean, so long as the rest of Europe is distracted, the Ottomans might feel they have a chance of winning the war before the circular firing squads in Picardy, Poland, and Istria finish their work.
 
I'm sure it's been mentioned elsewhere, but if Churchill doesn't appropriate the BBs meant for Turkey for the anti-German war effort, then 3 British BBs surely outweigh the Goeben and the Ottomans stay on-side. Russia might do a lot better with the straits open, and with some friendly lepidopteran help could well survive the war.

On the other hand, there's also less incentive to fight as hard as they did because other than saving Serbia and maybe grabbing Galicia, there's no reason for Russia to stick it out in WW1, losing all those casulaties and all that infrastructure. It's not like the Straits are in question now. And the fact that they were exporting grain taken from starving peasants wouldn't change because the Straits are open.

It was two BBs - Osman-i Evvel (Agincourt) and Reşadiye (Erin), but yes, that would have outweighed Goeben, and it's unlikely Goeben would have even had the opportunity to go to Istanbul if the BBs hadn't been appropriated by the British.

IF the Straits remain open, then that's certainly a huge benefit to Russia, as is not having 2M Entente troops tied up vs. the Ottomans. I'm not entirely sure the Straits would remain open, though.
 
What are the chances that an Ottoman Empire that isn't in WWI goes after Bulgaria (and maybe Greece) with the idea of reversing the losses of the Balkan Wars? I mean, so long as the rest of Europe is distracted, the Ottomans might feel they have a chance of winning the war before the circular firing squads in Picardy, Poland, and Istria finish their work.

The Ottomans had pretty much kissed off the Balkans - there was no real chance of getting back that territory and the Balkan states were had already ejected or massacred most of the Muslim population there. If the Ottomans had gotten the BBs, they might have gone after the Aegean Islands off the Anatolian coast at most. The Ottomans immediately began drawing close to Bulgaria after the Balkan Wars. Bulgaria is not going to enter as long as the Ottomans are neutral, so this is another benefit to the Entente.
 
Well the reason Bulgaria entered the Second Balkan and First World wars is Serbian and Greek domination replaced the Ottoman domination. A more just outcome of the First Balkan war leaves Bulgaria out of these wars, and the Ottomans have even more reason to be a friendly to Bulgaria as they can, which means they also don't enter? This also helps the Ottomans by hampering Greek imperialism.
 
Well the reason Bulgaria entered the Second Balkan and First World wars is Serbian and Greek domination replaced the Ottoman domination. A more just outcome of the First Balkan war leaves Bulgaria out of these wars, and the Ottomans have even more reason to be a friendly to Bulgaria as they can, which means they also don't enter? This also helps the Ottomans by hampering Greek imperialism.

The reason Bulgaria entered was because they saw the opportunity to grab vast helpings of their neighbors' territories. Let's not mess around here. It is true that they had a slightly better claim to Macedonia on ethno-linguistic grounds, but that's not saying much.

And let's face it - the Ottoman's determined Bulgarian entry, not the other way around.
 
The reason Bulgaria entered was because they saw the opportunity to grab vast helpings of their neighbors' territories. Let's not mess around here. It is true that they had a slightly better claim to Macedonia on ethno-linguistic grounds, but that's not saying much.

And let's face it - the Ottoman's determined Bulgarian entry, not the other way around.

Second paragraph right, but really, post-Balkan war, Bulgaria had about the only valid ethno-linguistic claim to Vardar Macedonia, and since the Balkan League justified their land-grab ethno-linguistically, Bulgaria should have gotten it by their own logic.
 
I suspect the Ottomans are carefully neutral - not allowing materials that could effect the war to pass through the Straits. The fact that this weakens the Ottoman's number one enemy in the world is just a tidy coincidence.

I can't see it lasting though. Both world wars set a pretty clear record for the rights of neutrals. You could be be neutral as long as you didn't matter and weren't in the way.

The Ottomans will come under tremendous pressure from the British to open the Dardanelles to Entente shipping. It's something that would make a profound difference to the war effort so they're not going to let it go. The Central Powers, meanwhile, can't really offer the Ottomans much of anything, once the war has begun in earnest. And it isn't as if they can use the threat of force: "If you don't join us, we'll stop pushing on the major fronts, concentrate on Serbia, invade Bulgaria, and then you'll be sorry."

I'd expect the straits to open some time in 1915 in exchange for concessions to the Turks. I just wonder what they'd be....
 
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